Misc 2021-22 Fall/Winter Whamby Thread

[GaWx]

Next winter is probably going to fall into the weak nino range. We have to hope that we can get the mjo into the cold phases though WEN charged up STJ+bad mjo=yikes

I’d love for a weak to moderate El Niño as despite the unusual 2018-9 they have historically averaged coldest by a good margin in the SE US. Some great weak to low end moderate El Niño winters: 1884-5, 1885-6, 1904-5, 1911-12, 1923-4, 1939-40, 1941-2, 1963-4, 1968-9, 1969-70, 1976-7, 1977-8, 1979-80.

 

[SnowNiner]

Just to clarify, the last El Niño was 3 winters ago and it was weak. That one didn’t at all act like a typical weak El Niño due to its warm Feb.

Climate Prediction Center - ONI

origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov

Yep, I misspoke. It the winter before last, as this is our second year nina.

 

[SD]

I’d love for a weak to moderate El Niño as despite the unusual 2018-9 they have historically averaged coldest by a good margin in the SE US. Some great weak to low end moderate El Niño winters: 1884-5, 1885-6, 1904-5, 1911-12, 1923-4, 1939-40, 1941-2, 1963-4, 1968-9, 1969-70, 1976-7, 1977-8.

Yeah I'm reasonably optimistic about next winter. I think we have seen over the past few winters that the global SST structure will find us the opportunity at significant ridging in the west US or north pac and I don't see a lot that's going to change that configuration at this time. We may though see more SER appear during the winter than is typical of a nino but every day from 11/1-4/1 can't be cold anyway

 

[ATLwxfan]

Problem is this thing is rather paltry and a quick mover. Maybe some token flakes and possible advisory level snow for southeast VA and up into the Delmarva.

Afterwards things get really interesting for rain lovers.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Drizzle Snizzle]

25 this morning and 60 this afternoon. Gotta love it.

 

[RollTide18]

My rule of the last few years is that, if there’s no threat of snow around the VDay period, then I just throw in the towel and get excited for spring & summer.

Bring on the MCS and Scattered Storms.

 

[weatherfide]

bouncycorn had it right from the beginning. The volcano broke the GFS

There was a pressure wave that went around the globe like 30 times when that thing blew. It also deposited tons of dust into the stratosphere. It's effects aren't trivial.

 

[Broken024]

@GaWx c’mon man let’s have a real storm discussion thread do you mind to keep those maps out going forward please just asking

 

[ATLwxfan]

We are so close to point where I can eliminate this forum from my life for 8 months. Maybe 2 or 3 more runs.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Metwannabe]

View attachment 113204

 

[Metwannabe]

@metwannabe on the prowl for somebody to ban ?



View attachment 113129

Target acquired

 

[NoSnowATL]

We are so close to point where I can eliminate this forum from my life for 8 months. Maybe 2 or 3 more runs.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Severe and hurricanes season come fast.

 

[SASQUATCH]

By God, I will not stay up for poop like this...(Is what I'm telling myself now) ?

 

[Montanasnow30]

By God, I will not stay up for poop like this...(Is what I'm telling myself now) ?

That map is a good example of why spring should start

 

[Chandler]

We’re really tracking this???

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

We’re really tracking this???View attachment 113207View attachment 113208

Yes

 

[NoSnowATL]

We’re really tracking this???View attachment 113207View attachment 113208

NC is but they track everything.

 

[NoSnowATL]

@metwannabe ?

 

[superjames1992]

We’re really tracking this???View attachment 113207View attachment 113208

Yes, and we’re all-in. ?

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

Yes, and we’re all-in. ?

It’s the last thing to even put chips into … we have to go all in