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Misc 2021-22 Fall/Winter Whamby Thread

smast16 said:
We hug what ever model gives us our desired outcome, and then we rationalize to others.

Right?
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Something like that. Tbf if we didn’t do that we would lose a lot of activity just waiting on models to all agree. Although, I suppose they aren’t as drastically diff as we think they are rn
 
For Upstate (west of I26) and NGA peeps this pattern has been flat awful. I am not smart enough to know why the Southern stream has been so weak and the gulf closed for action but this repeating late bloomer coast pattern has been torture. While CLT and GSO East may not have had "a big dog" many have seen multiple small events (weekly) while Upstate/NGA and West have been blanked every time. Of course the one time we got precip, last week, (I had over 3 inches), it was all rain. I never thought I would say it but... I'm ready to see some Miller B's again.
 
Iceagewhereartthou said:
For Upstate (west of I26) and NGA peeps this pattern has been flat awful. I am not smart enough to know why the Southern stream has been so weak and the gulf closed for action but this repeating late bloomer coast pattern has been torture. While CLT and GSO East may not have had "a big dog" many have seen multiple small events (weekly) while Upstate/NGA and West have been blanked every time. Of course the one time we got precip, last week, (I had over 3 inches), it was all rain. I never thought I would say it but... I'm ready to see some Miller B's again.
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Do you count GSP/Greer as “Upstate” west of I-26? They literally had a “big dog” and their biggest snow in 11 years!
 
Yeah feels pretty good outside, make sure you warm weenies take pics of grilling, while sauntering through the warm meadows, while laying preemergent or whatever your dying for heat waves for. One pic now, another in September October when you've been doing it for 8 months straight.
 
GaWx said:
Do you count GSP/Greer as “Upstate” west of I-26? They literally had a “big dog” and their biggest snow in 11 years!
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I hear you but that was literally the only time many have seen snow fall this year. Then you have CLT and GSO that have seen it now 4-6 times, even CAE to FLO have seen it twice. My point is, this pattern the past few weeks has been like Groundhog day. We got a good snow in Mid Jan, bigger than our average, but one snow doesn't make a whole season, IMO.
 
Iceagewhereartthou said:
For Upstate (west of I26) and NGA peeps this pattern has been flat awful. I am not smart enough to know why the Southern stream has been so weak and the gulf closed for action but this repeating late bloomer coast pattern has been torture. While CLT and GSO East may not have had "a big dog" many have seen multiple small events (weekly) while Upstate/NGA and West have been blanked every time. Of course the one time we got precip, last week, (I had over 3 inches), it was all rain. I never thought I would say it but... I'm ready to see some Miller B's again.
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That rain was plain annoying. I really want a dry warm month.


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I know it didn't snow while I was out in Tahoe last week, but the 4-6 Feet they got a month+ ago was largely still on the ground. (especially in the shaded areas) It just amazes me that all that snow/compacted ice was still around. Doesn't hurt to be at a base of 6500 feet either. lol
 
Iceagewhereartthou said:
For Upstate (west of I26) and NGA peeps this pattern has been flat awful. I am not smart enough to know why the Southern stream has been so weak and the gulf closed for action but this repeating late bloomer coast pattern has been torture. While CLT and GSO East may not have had "a big dog" many have seen multiple small events (weekly) while Upstate/NGA and West have been blanked every time. Of course the one time we got precip, last week, (I had over 3 inches), it was all rain. I never thought I would say it but... I'm ready to see some Miller B's again.
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For the last 30 years 6-8 inches for the season has been the ceiling in the upstate. We've already reached the magic number. I was hoping as active as the pattern was we could break the curse of not being able to reach double digits. But hope in that is quickly fading. Seems fairly normal here to get either a few small events or a one and done big dog. Too bad we can't ever get a big dog and then a few light events. But that's upstate climo anymore. Dec 2018 was great and then not even another sleet pellet. I guess it comes down to personal preference. I'd rather have a big dog over 3 small events that melt in a day. But everyone is different
 
Iceagewhereartthou said:
I hear you but that was literally the only time many have seen snow fall this year. Then you have CLT and GSO that have seen it now 4-6 times, even CAE to FLO have seen it twice. My point is, this pattern the past few weeks has been like Groundhog day. We got a good snow in Mid Jan, bigger than our average, but one snow doesn't make a whole season, IMO.
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I've seen a sleet fest from first storm maybe 3". Second storm was a surprise especially for Cabarrus County. Had 2.9-3" of beautiful fluffy snow. Third event underperformed with barely a dusting. Mondays event I slept through for the most part.
So it may seem like CLT has been rockin for weeks.. but not so much imo.
 
Man, I miss the good ole days and having the southern stream juiced, with a strong vort breaking out snow in Texas and just heading east. Why can't we get that anymore? The split flow STJ has been a huge disappointment even in this colder pattern.

Oh well, I got a front end snow thump with a sleetfest event a month ago so I'll roll with that. Much better than the last 3 years.
 
SnowNiner said:
Man, I miss the good ole days and having the southern stream juiced, with a strong vort breaking out snow in Texas and just heading east. Why can't we get that anymore? The split flow STJ has been a huge disappointment even in this colder pattern.

Oh well, I got a front end snow thump with a sleetfest event a month ago so I'll roll with that. Much better than the last 3 years.
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El Niño would help a lot with the STJ vs La Niña along with colder winter overall especially if weak to moderate. Hopefully next winter! Two years of La Niña is more than enough.
 
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GaWx said:
El Niño would help a lot with the STJ vs La Niña along with colder winter overall especially if weak to moderate. Hopefully next winter!
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Would love a Moderate nino next year. And one that acted like one, as opposed to last year. lol.
 
SnowNiner said:
Man, I miss the good ole days and having the southern stream juiced, with a strong vort breaking out snow in Texas and just heading east. Why can't we get that anymore? The split flow STJ has been a huge disappointment even in this colder pattern.

Oh well, I got a front end snow thump with a sleetfest event a month ago so I'll roll with that. Much better than the last 3 years.
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Next winter is probably going to fall into the weak nino range. We have to hope that we can get the mjo into the cold phases though WEN charged up STJ+bad mjo=yikes
 
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