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Misc 2021-22 Fall/Winter Whamby Thread

smast16 said:
I mean, if you want to get philosophical, we could think along the lines of @GaWx : Technically what's going to happen is going to happen, and the models have no bearing on what will or will not be. So, if it in-fact rains on Sunday, then it was already destined to fail.
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If anyone is looking at the models as the solution past about hour 0 they are placing the issues on the wrong side of the monitor
 
SD said:
If anyone is looking at the models as the solution past about hour 0 they are placing the issues on the wrong side of the monitor
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In IT we call that a Pebcak error? (Problem Exists Between Chair And Keyboard)
 
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SD said:
If anyone is looking at the models as the solution past about hour 0 they are placing the issues on the wrong side of the monitor
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They can get pretty close up to about 18 hours out. But it takes 4 to 6 hours to run the program, so that gives you about 12 hours. The weather models are spot on 12 hours from hour zero. They get lost after that...some faster than others.
 
weatherfide said:
They can get pretty close up to about 18 hours out. But it takes 4 to 6 hours to run the program, so that gives you about 12 hours. The weather models are spot on 12 hours from hour zero. They get lost after that...some faster than others.
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Exactly anyone that gets mad at a model for not showing them getting snow or mad bc reality wasn't quite what the 120 hour navgem showed might want to go back to the drawing board and reassess.

Like you said by the time you see the data it's already changed
 
SD said:
Exactly anyone that gets mad at a model for not showing them getting snow or mad bc reality wasn't quite what the 120 hour navgem showed might want to go back to the drawing board and reassess.

Like you said by the time you see the data it's already changed
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And that's why this is fun! You never know what solutions are going to present with each model run. The reality might be in there, somewhere, and that's what makes it so captivating. The model solutions are never truly accurate but they are good enough to guide you into some distinct possibilities. "We" can do nothing to make a pattern better or worse or affect the reality at all. It's just fun watching the computer modeling spit out solutions - it is to me, anyway.
 
weatherfide said:
I actually think this one might lay down some significant snow accumulation in your area. Let's watch over the next few days and see what materializes.
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Hope so. The possibility is there I guess. Temps already seem very borderline verbatim and it has been difficult to get something to trend positive in a meaningful way here.
 
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