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Tropical 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season Discussion

I just checked joe bastardi. He says sally might get stuck in the atlantic and come back west.

Joe Bastardi


@BigJoeBastardi

·
11m

Sally could get trapped and come back west for a time ( Doria 1967) will Teddy comes up on her east flank ( chloe did that in 1967). This left the SW gulf open for Beulah, while not coming from Caribbean feature in SW gulf may be our next US impact storm 6-10 days from now.
 
What if I said 2020 has actually been a relatively quiet season? I know that sounds ridiculous, but, even with all the named storms thus far, the season-to-date ACE through September 15th is still only 68.1 in the Atlantic basin (granted that'll go up a good bit with Teddy the next several days). To date, we're at 16% above 1981-2010 climo, which is actually on the low side with an emerging La Nina.

http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Realtime/
 
What if I said 2020 has actually been a relatively quiet season? I know that sounds ridiculous, but, even with all the named storms thus far, the season-to-date ACE through September 15th is still only 68.1 in the Atlantic basin (granted that'll go up a good bit with Teddy the next several days). To date, we're at 16% above 1981-2010 climo, which is actually on the low side with an emerging La Nina.

http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Realtime/
I would say we are lucky.....
 
What if I said 2020 has actually been a relatively quiet season? I know that sounds ridiculous, but, even with all the named storms thus far, the season-to-date ACE through September 15th is still only 68.1 in the Atlantic basin (granted that'll go up a good bit with Teddy the next several days). To date, we're at 16% above 1981-2010 climo, which is actually on the low side with an emerging La Nina.

http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Realtime/

But not quiet at all as far as US impacts with them about to have a 4th H hit and 8th TS+ hit and it is only 9/15! And one of the H hits was a strong cat 4! There aren't going to be many seasons with H/TS+ hits of 4/8 as of 9/15. Land impacts are much more important to me than ACE. If the US had its own "ACE", it would be very high.
 
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But not quiet at all as far as US impacts with them about to have a 4th H hit and 8th TS+ hit and it is only 9/15! And one of the H hits was a strong cat 4! There aren't going to be many seasons with H/TS+ hits of 4/8 as of 9/15. Land impacts are much more important to me than ACE. If the US had its own "ACE", it would be very high.


More on how active this season has already been through just 9/15 for the US including Sally as a H hit:
1 MH
4 H+
8 TS+

Avg 1995-2019 only
0.5 MH
1.7 H+
3.9 TS+

And we're only through 9/15.

Also, how many seasons since 1995 had 4+ H hits the ENTIRE season? Only 2004 and 2005 with 5 each. And again it is only 9/15 with 4 already this season!


*Corrected as 2004 had 5, not 6, landfalling Hs. I took out Alex, despite giving Hatteras H winds, because it technically wasn't a landfall as the center was barely offshore.
 
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I see both arguments here I do feel like it's been not as busy as the numbers say but there have been a record number of landfalls even if most of them except Laura weren't as bad as they could have been(especially with all the 2005 comparisons when literally every hurricane hit seemed to be a worst case scenario)
 
I wouldnt be surprised if a couple strong storms formed in Oct. 1 in the west carib and another in the atlantic. I read where we are in a la nina now so it might make things more favorable than normal later in the season.
 
I wouldnt be surprised if a couple strong storms formed in Oct. 1 in the west carib and another in the atlantic. I read where we are in a la nina now so it might make things more favorable than normal later in the season.

Oh you can believe the season definitely isn't over I totally expect a big one from the Caribbean at least in October
 
I see both arguments here I do feel like it's been not as busy as the numbers say but there have been a record number of landfalls even if most of them except Laura weren't as bad as they could have been(especially with all the 2005 comparisons when literally every hurricane hit seemed to be a worst case scenario)

Yep, the 2005 comparison was overhype to a once or twice in a century type of season for the US.

If I were just considering FL, it hasn’t been active other than the panhandle despite it being very active overall for the US. But Carolinas and Gulf coast have been very active overall. FL pen scraped only once with no direct TS+ hits so far if I’m not mistaken although Isaias likely gave some of the E coast TS winds.
 
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I wouldnt be surprised if a couple strong storms formed in Oct. 1 in the west carib and another in the atlantic. I read where we are in a la nina now so it might make things more favorable than normal later in the season.

Just 1 more H hit and US ties 2004 and 2005 for most since 1985!
 
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May have another Gulf storm?

An area of low pressure over the southwestern Gulf of
Mexico is producing showers and thunderstorms that are showing some
signs of organization Upper-level winds are forecast to
gradually become more conducive for development, and a tropical
depression could form late this week while the low meanders over the
southern Gulf of Mexico for the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
 
We currently have 3 simultaneous hurricanes in the Atlantic

Not a record but still pretty rare

Screenshot_20200916-012833.png
 
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Yep, the 2005 comparison was overhype to a once or twice in a century type of season for the US.

If I were just considering FL, it hasn’t been active other than the panhandle despite it being very active overall for the US. But Carolinas and Gulf coast have been very active overall. FL pen scraped only once with no direct TS+ hits so far if I’m not mistaken although Isaias likely gave some of the E coast TS winds.
“Very active”? Noooo, not the Carolinas, not this season. I’ve dealt with more extended power outages over the past few years than I care to think about. Southport did get a hit but it could have been much worse. This season so far, for NC, has been calm, I’d love to keep it that way.
 
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We have been very lucky so far avoiding major canes making landfall when you consider how active things have been. I am more concerned now with systems like Sally popping up off the east coast and in the Gulf than with the waves coming from Africa. Good thing is those usually don't have time to become a major hurricane before landfall.
 
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