What he is saying is everytime a big storm forms the far left shouts global warming or climate change, whatever climate change means at the time. But when storms fall apart or weak the same crowd doesnt shout how climate change is great because it makes storms weaker.
Tropical 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season Discussion
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What he is saying is everytime a big storm forms the far left shouts global warming or climate change, whatever climate change means at the time. But when storms fall apart or weak the same crowd doesnt shout how climate change is great because it makes storms weaker.
9/2. 12z Icon. Dropped the pair...but continues to develop it.
12zGFS does nothing with the wave, but does give evidence that it follows the same path as CMC.....
I think we are lucky the forecasts of a super season probably wont happen. hopefully after laura the season will end. Good thing none of those big blue areas arent in the tropics, lol.
That would be super, but highly unlikely. We have at least 6 more weeks to move through before a slow down, in my opinion. Likely next hurricane event will be week of 9/7.
It hasn't done a very good job at genesis....EPS looks extensive, although it hasn't been adequate at genesis either. CMC and Icon have done nice job at genesis so far.
October would like to have a word with you.
Updated pic of the African wave: it looks to move off by tomorrow
Yeah, the GEFS typically have a horrible time with tropical systems due to their grid spacing, for example the mean for Laura at landfall is 991mb. Their synoptic setup is more important. On the other hand, the GEFSv12 is higher res, so it tends to be a little more realistic. Does anybody have the spaghetti plots for that. Off of TT, it looks interesting.
Call me crazy again but I have my doubts with the euro right now. Remember it never developed Laura either. Best thing is to wait and see how the models react they have been pretty abysmal with genesis on the last couple of storms.
ICON is doing a good job, I think. CMC points the way too.
12Z EPS: not nearly as active as the most active run but still rather active:
The good thing about oct is very few big storms hit NC by then. Hazel did in 1954 but thats very rare. oct is florida time.
October storms are usually not as bad as August or September in the US. Opal was one notable exception. South FL is a different story though as they can still get bad canes in Oct. I think Wilma hit in Oct.
As you speak, the EPS is much more bearish than the last two runs:
Forward -> Backwards
