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Tropical 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season Discussion

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** Edit: That TC in NE GA/upstate SC is actually from a Laura member that first went offshore from Savannah and then curved back into Vero Beach as a strengthening H before then moving back up into GA/SC.
 
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The wave that leads to the numerous EPS members threatening the SE/Gulf/E US on the last 3 runs is the prominent one now over Africa near 0 longitude between 10N and 20N. It is forecasted to emerge from Africa on Thursday. This is quite robust and already shows curvature. When considering that along with what appear to be generally favorable atmospheric conditions as well as warm SSTs ahead in the MDR and with it being in the heart of the active season during La Nina when many historic storms originated, this one is liable to be a long tracking beast that would be followed for 2 weeks+:

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This pic is from here:
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/imagemain.php?&basin=europe&sat=m7&prod=irn
 
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How long till Florida’s luck runs out? That’s gonna be interesting.


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Regarding the wave that will emerge from Africa on Thursday: the 18Z GFS has a "landfall" as a weak low near Jacksonville, FL, just after hour 306 on Sept 6 moving westward, which then was followed by more westward movement to the Gulf coast as an even weaker feature that then meets up with a cold front near the MS River on Sep 8. The point of this is to show that westerly steering may be dominating then due to ridging to the north:

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Edit: The 18Z GEFS has essentially nothing.
 
Look what's sitting off the SC coast......it takes it in at Charleston, although not developed. Ironic that it's at same position as an earlier Euro map.

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lexxnchloe said:
lets hope things stay this quiet. Maybe laura will be the only major cane.
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Unlikely. We're about to have an outbreak...according to Twitter, anyway. Even if the covidwildfirenadocane outbreak never materializes, I'd give it a 95% chance of another major cane this year. We'll probably have at least a couple more.
 
BirdManDoomW said:
Interesting, I was kinda feeling the same. Let’s see if it happens, recorded here for verification purposes.
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#freethecomma

Storms that have done little or have fallen apart are not even mentioned. That doesn't seem all that strange to me.
 
Henry2326 said:
I'm not sure I see the point. We monitor storms to protect people. If it's not a risk, we dont focus on it. What is he referring to?
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Well I’m just referring to Labor Day threat for East coast. He’s referring to politics.
 
Henry2326 said:
I'm not sure I see the point. We monitor storms to protect people. If it's not a risk, we dont focus on it. What is he referring to?
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What he is saying is everytime a big storm forms the far left shouts global warming or climate change, whatever climate change means at the time. But when storms fall apart or weak the same crowd doesnt shout how climate change is great because it makes storms weaker.
 
12zGFS does nothing with the wave, but does give evidence that it follows the same path as CMC.....

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lexxnchloe said:
I think we are lucky the forecasts of a super season probably wont happen. hopefully after laura the season will end. Good thing none of those big blue areas arent in the tropics, lol.
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That would be super, but highly unlikely. We have at least 6 more weeks to move through before a slow down, in my opinion. Likely next hurricane event will be week of 9/7.
 
Henry2326 said:
That would be super, but highly unlikely. We have at least 6 more weeks to move through before a slow down, in my opinion. Likely next hurricane event will be week of 9/7.
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Yeah, the GEFS typically have a horrible time with tropical systems due to their grid spacing, for example the mean for Laura at landfall is 991mb. Their synoptic setup is more important. On the other hand, the GEFSv12 is higher res, so it tends to be a little more realistic. Does anybody have the spaghetti plots for that. Off of TT, it looks interesting.
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Shaggy said:
Call me crazy again but I have my doubts with the euro right now. Remember it never developed Laura either. Best thing is to wait and see how the models react they have been pretty abysmal with genesis on the last couple of storms.
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ICON is doing a good job, I think. CMC points the way too.
 
BirdManDoomW said:
October would like to have a word with you.
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October storms are usually not as bad as August or September in the US. Opal was one notable exception. South FL is a different story though as they can still get bad canes in Oct. I think Wilma hit in Oct.
 
Shaggy said:
Call me crazy again but I have my doubts with the euro right now. Remember it never developed Laura either. Best thing is to wait and see how the models react they have been pretty abysmal with genesis on the last couple of storms.
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As you speak, the EPS is much more bearish than the last two runs:
Forward -> Backwards
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