This is not good.
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Tropical 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season Discussion
- Thread starter Snowfan
- Start date
This is not good.
910guy
Member
I was wondering if the early mild temps we’ve had might lead to any changes in the timing of onset of hurricane season or intensity? I’m sure it’s much more complicated than that but a question none the less.
Brent
Member
with the record warm winter in most areas it does make you wonder
but it is very very early
but it is very very early
Dawgdaze22
Member
I would think that with the milder than average sea surface temperatures in the Gulf and off the SE coast, you would want to keep a closer eye out for convection forming along fronts that stall out in those areas come early May.
Bertha and Teddy. Big names will be retired one day. The rest are silly names so should be weak folks.
With a mild winter and upcoming weather I believe we need to look for a home grown system. Also need to watch the Tennessee area as it is prone to flooding if something goes inland .
Well this isn't good.
Bad for hurricane season, but I'm ready to shake things up next winter with a Nina.
Shaggy
Member
For NC its all about the spring tornado numbers.
Accuweather is predicting 14-18 tropical cyclones, 7-9 to become hurricanes, and 2-4 to become major hurricanes this hurricane season.
ATTENTION....free webinar on FB coming soon for s/e states. Ask questions. 
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Looks like the Atlantic is gonna try to get this party started already...
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Should be interesting to see if we pull off what would be only the 3rd tropical cyclone on record in April in the Atlantic
First storm of the season forming East of NC. Poss. hurricane.
Brent
Member
This looks lovely but it is still very early
This needs a name. I’ve seen way less with a name. 
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
For the moment, this is not anywhere close to becoming a tropical cyclone.
Imo, the tell-tale sign of a tropical cyclone is a low-mid level potential vorticity tower superimposed directly onto the strongest portion of the surface circulation, we don't see that here in addition to the strong thermal advection that's occurring around the cyclone.
In fact using a PV cross section, we see exactly the opposite of what we'd expect for a TC, with a cyclone (trough) at the tropopause and depression in tropopause heights (warm shading sags towards the surface) and its displaced westward of the surface cyclone, this is a classic signature of baroclinic instability and an extratropical cyclone w/ colder deep-layer tropopause and maximum cyclonic anomaly at the tropopause.
If we step forward about 3-4 days, things have changed. Notice the cyclonic anomaly at the tropopause is weaker &/or non-existent, and it would be at this point, where shallow convection could develop and via PV redistribution, completely erode the upper-level cyclonic PV anomaly and instead create a upper-level PV ridge.
This process of an extratropical cyclone gradually acquiring warm-core characteristics over time is more formally known as tropical transition. It usually takes at a minimum, 3-4 days for convection to have cumulatively generated enough diabatic heating to erode the initial deep-layer tropopause cold anomaly when the cyclone was still cold-core/extratropical, and for subsequent potential vorticity redistribution to have built up & reinforce the "shallow" warm core & thus officially become a subtropical cyclone.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
EPS gives a 100% of a tropical storm.
CSU is predicting 16 named storms, 8 hurricanes and 4 major hurricanes.
Big season ahead if Colorado Forecast ends up right
A good sign for the GOM.
accu35
Member
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Good as in storm or no storm?
Neither. Just pointed out a 7 day trend or change to cooler. Sunshine and a week can make the those waters boiling again. Already and still warm tho.
Yes, I’m hoping even more than my usual big hope that the hurricane season isn’t active as that in itself would reduce the chance of it having much impact on land. Fingers crossed as we all know that as bad as it can be, we would have even more trouble now to be able to handle a disaster like that. We’re so due for a quiet season. Hopefully we’ll finally get one.
Dawgdaze22
Member
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The Euro seasonal model has a strong suppressed/dry bias in the tropical Atlantic, the fact that it's showing anything remotely active or above average is concerning.
JB released his Hurricane forecast. Keep in mind that he has a pretty good track record for hurricanes.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Yikes.
Uh oh.
pcbjr
Member
Oh uh ... JMA ... ?
Huge leap of faith for him to make that map.
Shaggy
Member
I mean pretty much anywhere that has very rare landfalls is not highlighted and EVERYWHERE is lol.
Seeing that the Yucatán is not highlighted, they need to build bomb shelters.
pcbjr
Member
well, of course ... how can that bust?
There is one great way: don't forget that it could end up a quiet season with few or no landfalls anywhere. Keep hope alive. We're so ridiculously overdue for a quiet season, especially in/near the SE US. Hopefully this year. It is about time we have a quiet season. And now with the virus? We need quiet even more than we normally do. This is what we should pray for, pray for another huge JB bust to follow his big winter bust. Nothing would make me feel better.
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