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Misc 2020/21 Fall and Winter Whamby Thread

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Throwback to this mammatus and thunderstorm I got to enjoy on vacation near Ellijay GA this past summer
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Whatever it is doing, it can keep doing. The 2010-2020 decade has been the snowiest of my life by far.
I think all these Winters in the past decade has benefited the western part of the southeast to the detriment of the Carolinas..
 
CMC is just so much less amped when it enters the Pacific Northwest so it just never really gets going, that stuff to it’s north tugs it and messes the process up because they interact to long, meanwhile the GFS is far more amped and develops it because right off the bat when it enters the NW, there’s stream separation View attachment 60780View attachment 60781
Well I for one hope that CMC is right. If the GFS verifies and we have a perfect track, in January, with a -NAO and get a 40 degree rain I may snap! After the last 2 years thats not even fair.
 
So when we wanted a west trend the hurricanes went east of us but now the snow stays west of us

?

That about sums up the weather since the summer here
 
Why didn’t y’all tell me the Euro went ham on me for the Friday system!?? 8-12” on Friday after 10-16”tomorrow? I just ? ? 710498D1-2C46-4C1C-8B9B-589FE4A5F136.jpeg
 
Please stop, you are going to upset brick.
I guess they might have to ban me, cause I’m more excited than a 5 year old on Christmas Eve or Rain Cold at pizza inn, and he just saw them bring out a fresh steaming chocolate chip pizzert!
 
Based on the 12z ECMWF/EPS, it looks like the stratospheric circulation anomalies are gonna try to directly couple w/ the west-based -NAO as soon as the 2nd week of January. If this occurs, an extremely intense & prolonged period of -NAO could be lurking on the horizon, potentially rivaling 2010-11 & 2009-10 imo.

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Based on the 12z ECMWF/EPS, it looks like the stratospheric circulation anomalies are gonna try to directly couple w/ the west-based -NAO as soon as the 2nd week of January. If this occurs, an extremely intense & prolonged period of -NAO could be lurking on the horizon, potentially rivaling 2010-11 & 2009-10 imo.
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Pretty sure there’s some 2’ totals just to my SW, two storm total on 18z GFS98724A84-DDFC-49A7-B916-23B1793C1506.png
 
Miller A setups like what we may see a lot of in the coming month or two are much more tenuous imo than CAD or overrunning and are typically boom/bust type events with very limited predictability beyond day 4-6. Point is, going forward thru January & even February, don't get discouraged if you aren't seeing fantasy long-range snowstorms on ensemble guidance or operational NWP. These kinds of storms often sneak up on you at the very last minute (think Jan 2000, Dec 2010 for ex (although we've made some improvements since then)).
I've got to save this, because you know I'll be the one complaining about the lack of model snow. ;)
 
Pretty sure there’s some 2’ totals just to my SW, two storm total on 18z GFSView attachment 60834

If Mack were to get the close to a foot from the two storms combined that some models are suggesting is possible, Dubuque would be at 26" season to date, which would be more than double the normal through Jan 1 of 12"! Translation: Mack isn't just good at picking a good time to go on a cruise. He's also good at deciding the best time to move north.
 
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