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Misc 2020/21 Fall and Winter Whamby Thread

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Last night I was fearful of my life and how I would keep warm with the 1+ inch of freezing rain I was going to get. Thank goodness I didn’t get a generator.
 
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Are these models based on any actual physical observations this far out? If so, what are the chances of bad intel for one run? If not, when do those observations, like weather balloons start?
 
I predict the cold will abruptly end in late February just like in 2011.
I'm in the mind set that this is it. Yes, March can produce big storms but not normally. I think the current cold pattern setup for North America is our last real chance to get a significant SE winter storm. So you could be right; pattern flips to warmer in two to three weeks, and we basically move into spring.
 
Bunch of babies . We went from awesome 00z ensembles to crappy 12z and everyone starts bitching


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Given the amount of fluctuation if the models look like garbage now there's not much worse than garbage we could end up as. 0Z could end up being better tonight for all we know. There's always 12Z tomorrow as well to see if a trend is legitimate.
 
The below 18z GFS map is way out in fantasy land (~day 12). Is it going to happen. probably not; or at least not how it's displayed here. The main thing to be encouraged about is at least we can still get these storms. The models wouldn't be spitting out these solutions otherwise.
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About a week or two ago, I posted that I liked seeing fantasy storms on the models (as opposed to not seeing them) because it generally means the models are seeing some real cold air to work with. Whether or not anything works out is another story. But it's good at least that they think there's going to be bonafide cold air nearby.
 
Hopefully we can go ahead and get the drought started so we can hit 115 this summer

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