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Misc 2020/21 Fall and Winter Whamby Thread

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Every model shows the precip bending around Wake Co... :D

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Notice this only happens in winter and it only happens when snow is possible. If this were an entirely rain event with temps in the 40s, there would be no precip gaps anywhere.
 
Every model shows the precip bending around Wake Co... :D

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We toss!!! It’s nowcasting time, anyways!!! We’ve spent days living and dying by the models, but now that we are close in and they should be the most accurate, let’s throw them all out and go by feel!!! modernweenie
 
Still trying to figure out what changed between this morning and now for GSP to take any and all mention of snow out of my point forecast
I think either the track has been bumped slightly north, or the cold push just is not as good (or both) but it seems the models are showing a lot less snow in northern upstate than yesterday or the the day before unless you are right on the border 2000 ft plus. That's honestly the way it's been 19/20 times with this setup the past 15 years of so. Gotta be 2000 ft or north of the state line and it's a different ball game. I may have to chase to Caeser's Head this weekend, they could do well.
 
Yeah...only we can precip hole in a setup like this. The past 60 days we've needed an ark.

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We just had one of the wettest years on record in 2020 and like 2” of snow to show for it, and I think just one accumulating snow event. We are bad at snow.
 
I have been enjoying reading the threads from extreme optimism to extreme dread back to wonderful hope. If you look at the last few weeks pages it’s literally great one day and horrible the next. I know it’s hard but my rule of thumb is any decent snow ( Outside of elevated areas ) before January 15th in the southeast is to be considered bonus snow. Temps aren’t vodka cold but they are not warm at all which means something could show up in the 5-7 day range at anytime. Anyone giving up on winter now is crazy and I’d suggest to be patient. Now if we are at week 4 in January and the models aren’t looking good in the extended then I’ll be worrying right there with everyone else who is worried.
 
It is still completely dry here and yet with this radar image you would think it has been raining for awhile.

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