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Misc 2020/21 Fall and Winter Whamby Thread

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Brick Tamland said:
And now the Euro looks like crap. So frustrated. I think it's obvious that patterns that used to work out more for winter weather around here just don't work out as much as they used to. Tired of the pattern hype and these crappy models just getting worse past 5 days instead of getting better. I think I'm going to take a break and just look at the RAH forecast and discussion each day.
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Well, my general thought is I don't believe in SE winter weather without a +PNA. Without it we dump the trough out west more times than not, blow up the SE ridge and best case hope on CAD to save us.

I agree though, I'm about done chasing this winter. -NAO has kept us seasonal with CAD and that's about the best we're going to get I believe for the last few weeks.
 
SnowNiner said:
Well, my general thought is I don't believe in SE winter weather without a +PNA. Without it we dump the trough out west more times than not, blow up the SE ridge and best case hope on CAD to save us.

I agree though, I'm about done chasing this winter. -NAO has kept us seasonal with CAD and that's about the best we're going to get I believe for the last few weeks.
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No the best we can do the next few weeks is get a few enhanced risks and SPC MDs
 
I see the sure thing megastorm next week is going to hell in a hand basket. I was trying to ignore it until tomorrow night’s failure is over with, but some discussion of next week’s screwjob slipped into the thread for this weekend. :(
 
It seems that our cold hopes being previously burned so often has perhaps made people just as jumpy with model variations as those that drool over snow maps. Meaning, we may cliff dive earlier and earlier and become less accurate with our ability to analyze what is actually happening.

Being on this board (and before this, others) for years now, seems like the pattern is similar: 1. Model shows cold. 2. People say no, it’s cold don’t believe. 3. Model shows warm, people say yes warm is truth. 4. Model shows cold again, people say oh cold showed twice it must be true now. 5. Model shows warm, people mad at model, model sucks, warm is truth. 6. Model goes back to showing cold, people celebrate. 7. Nowcasting occurs and reality falls between the two extremes and we forget all the waffling and repeat the process.
 
I'm getting very close to canceling this winter and bring on spring. What once looked like to a historic snow/sleet storm just 2 days ago has become a another rain event for the SE. At this point, I just hope the models continue to trend west with the PV so we have severe weather and nice temperatures instead of another miserable 35-45 degree rain.
 
Anyone watch WandaVision yet? Pretty strange first couple of episodes but really liked them and now past couple have gotten really good.
 
Chandler said:
Cant even get cold and dry either lol
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It's fine with me if don't get a severe arctic outbreak in the Southeast(especially in the eastern SE).I personally don't like the very cold/dry conditions if don't helps us towards getting a winter storm.
 
SD said:
Could you imagine the bag of Bleep per Brick this winter would have been if we didn't have a -NAO? I don't think anything can save us anymore, I've totally checked out on winter.
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So you're saying things don't work the way they used to
 
SD said:
Could you imagine the bag of Bleep per Brick this winter would have been if we didn't have a -NAO? I don't think anything can save us anymore, I've totally checked out on winter.
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Maybe at least it would’ve been warm, though. If we are going to not get any snow, we might as well just be in the 60s and 70s all winter like when I lived in FL.
 
metwannabe said:
So you're saying things don't work the way they used to
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If this were the 80s we’d be polishing our shovels for tomorrow’s big dog. 6-12” across the southeast with temperatures in the upper teens. Instead we get front end slop to sleet to rain and drown in our tears.
 
superjames1992 said:
If this were the 80s we’d be polishing our shovels for tomorrow’s big dog. 6-12” across the southeast with temperatures in the upper teens. Instead we get front end slop to sleet to rain and drown in our tears.
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It's my favorite new saying. The 90s were trash and our worst decade so people have to bring me a little more than it used to work out. Obviously not.
 
SD said:
It's my favorite new saying. The 90s were trash and our worst decade so people have to bring me a little more than it used to work out. Obviously not.
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I wish I was alive back in the 80s when RDU averaged 54” of snow per winter. Those were the days. Now we haven’t broken double digits in 17 years.
 
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