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Misc 2020/21 Fall and Winter Whamby Thread

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Nope, I’m still thinking mid/early January.
I know you are good with analogs so I'll come to you with this sir!

We know La Nina is famous for torching the back half of winter. We know 10-11 went to poop after mid Jan. But that was because the-NAO broke down. Are there any years that were moderate to strong Nina's that had extreme blocking hold trough Jan and Feb? If so how did those turn out down our way?
 
Yet another year where we're waiting until late January for effects from the SSWE which will probably amount to nothing.

I do think we'll get lucky at some point but these rinse and repeat winters are funny.

Yeah, as of now it is looking quite mild for the first half of January overall from current guidance as well as pro mets that I have access to. The big question is the last half of January. There is a good chance that it will be colder than the first half of January just based on typical cyclical changes plus the possible cooling from the SSW. But will it turn cold enough to avoid an AN January? That’s going to be a challenge. If we could salvage a near normal January I’d take it!
 
This is me tuning up the BAN wagon...
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I’m planning to go skiing January 23rd. Hopefully there’s snow on Sugar Mountain then, LOL. Some of the modeling is mildly concerning.
 
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