• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Misc 2019 Banter & Friendly Conservation

Webberweather53 said:
1926-27 was blowtorch warm here but we scored 2 big dogs the only 2 times it got cold that year so it's the epitome of what Brick is saying. It's the only winter on record that produced multiple one foot snowstorms in GSO.
View attachment 14252

View attachment 14253
Click to expand...

And of course this one...my favorite all time event, even over 1/00.

Hopefully Brick doesn't read this. Yes, it can be warm but we still need a good pattern, even if transient, to score.

cd56.105.166.135.28.8.24.41.prcp.png
 
To the others that nailed the forecast, hats off to you. We never waiverd. Even when the Globals showed 4” lollipops yesterday. Solid forecasting guys and gals
 
if you would have told me a week ago the first part of feb would be in the seventies I would have said no way! I'm so depressed.
 
Figured I'd offer my 2 cents and some change opinion here about school closures after reading about that, in my cases.

They've become much more trigger happy than I remember from before I graduated HS. There are good reasons though most likely that I don't remember other cases (the case of tropical storms hitting us with significant weather didn't happen too much). School got cancelled and I'm pretty sure the city shut down for both Irma and Michael for at least one day, and then last year I had a snow day from school for moderate snow that didn't stick. I'm pretty sure the local schools that are below college just had a delay though and went on as scheduled. I think school also got cancelled for Matthew in the area, but I'm less certain there.

Outside Irma those cancellations were just for one day though I believe. The local schools turned into shelters for the coast for Irma. That was a very good deed by the city.

It's probably not a bad idea to cancel schools for tropical storm weather, just in my case they didn't cancel for severe weather before I graduated HS and I'm doubtful I had any Irma's or Michael's back then.
 
We've become so reliant on models that we have forgotten how to use knowledge, training, and experience. Probably get flamed for that, but it's largely the truth.
 
They need to use that meteorology degree instead of relying on some inconsistent models. Webber on here constantly fills us in with knowledge, where as he doesnt have to use the models verbatim.
 
Snowflowxxl said:
They need to use that meteorology degree instead of relying on some inconsistent models. Webber on here constantly fills us in with knowledge, where as he doesnt have to use the models verbatim.
Click to expand...

Webber has said it and I've said it many times... models are TOOLS and nothing more. Taking their output verbatim and accepting it is never a good idea. There is great skill required in knowing each model's strengths and weaknesses and how to use it in forecasting an event. Globals are great for general 5h setup and system track but lack the skill to handle things like a warm nose, cold chasing moisture, and other tricky setups we deal with here in the south. For whatever reason it seems to me the NWS seems to ignore the RGEM and 3km NAM when those are the two best models for thermal profiles inside 48 hours... Perhaps they do use them but their forecasts often seem to be more of a blend between the GFS and Euro output which just isn't a good idea imo.

One of the best examples of that I can remember was a storm we had January one or two years ago... the globals were forecasting a quick change from rain to snow as cold HP was building in. Meanwhile the NAM came in range and showed a significant warm nose that would be a problem during the entire storm. Our local NWS offices relied heavily on the GFS/Euro ideas and busted tremendously when areas like Wake county had basically nothing due to the warm nose. Had they given the mesoscale models priority over the globals they would have had a forecast that aligned quite nicely with verification. I've seen many other examples over the years of similar types of forecasting issues like this when it comes to winter weather here in the south.
 
Oh and let me add in...

We got rid of the real torch weeks ago, but even still, we didn't have a good pattern for winter weather for us. I'm not sure where people get that idea if you simply just look at a few more maps other than just the surface map. If we have ridging in the east, it's not a good pattern for us to score, outside of maybe in the western part of the SE.

Yes, after that last cutter, we got into a better pattern for us to score, finally. We swung and missed at our chance to get a big dog over the weekend.

Although in what I was tracking, some in the SE at least kinda scored to the point where I'm not going to change to war beaver as my avatar.
 
DarkKnight said:
The truth is now... everything is judge differently now and if someone gets a little cut on their finger your going to get your ass sued!!! That’s why schools are afraid to let them go. Afraid about being sued by money hungry people.
Why you think they have the commercial now. “In a wreck need a check”!!!

So give delta a break...
Click to expand...

People have sued others over car accidents since cars were invented. Compensation for injury is a very ancient concept.

Quite frankly, the schools conversation is a bit silly. Different districts and cities have different needs and expectations. Metro Atlanta schools, Jefferson County in Alabama, and larger districts like them have a much more difficult and complicated set of variables to weigh than a rural county or an exburb do. There's no way a lot of counties can wait until 5AM to make a decision. Parents have to arrange childcare, transportation plans that are finely-tuned can't be recklessly modified, and many school districts are over-crowded and under-resourced.

The reason schools try to make a decision earlier than what they did two or three decades ago is because society has changed. One, we've learned a lot more about planning, efficiency, and safety. Two, the percentage of adults with children is significantly lower than it used to be, and employers are way less understanding of employees "missing" a day to stay home with their children when 80% of employees at a small company don't have minor children. Three, the number of households in which both parents work full-time is exponentially higher than 2-3 decades ago. Mommy doesn't stay at home with the kids anymore. She works full-time, and frequently has the same or even more substantial work obligations than her spouse.

People are also much less likely to live where they grew up, and they often don't have family that can watch their children on short notice. Plus, in a service based economy, a lot more employees travel than used to occur 2-3 decades ago. Especially air travel. Someone may have arrangements for their children to make it to and from school, but if you have to close schools because of weather they need lead time to make alternative arrangements for someone to watch their children.

It isn't that schools are trying to accommodate snowflake parents. It's that business and work obligations come before education in the modern American economy, society has changed, and school systems have to change their way of operating to accommodate how things have changed.
 
Rain Cold said:
We've become so reliant on models that we have forgotten how to use knowledge, training, and experience. Probably get flamed for that, but it's largely the truth.
Click to expand...
To add to this point look at this snip-it from Rah NWS morning AFD.... "Have also noticed that the near term model guidance is not a bullish
with the falling temperatures this evening into the overnight with some near term model guidance suggesting minimum temperatures 3-4
degrees warmer than forecast. Have trended temperatures up a bit based on this analysis and may need further adjustments in the
afternoon forecast package."

Now you and I and probably 1/2 the people on this board knew that CAA was going to be delayed by the Apps, always has and always will.... I'm not being critical BUT (well yes I am to a degree) but, mets should've known that too but instead by their own admission followed the model guidance. I love how they use the word guidance because that's what it is, guidance, but yet base their forecast solely on that model output.
 
Just to make u realize how much this winter has sucked camel balls, at this time in the great winter of 1898-99 NC was already digging out from a huge appetizer in late January before the big blizzard showed up in mid-February.
January 28-29 1899 NC Snowmap.png
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top