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Misc 2019 Banter & Friendly Conservation

Webberweather53 said:
Shrug? Lol internal variability/randomness is almost certainly at play, although I'm not actually sure to be quite honest, there are a few other examples that I haven't touched on but the observed range of snowfall variability just in the last 125 years or so over NC is definitely eye opening, full of amazing wall-to-wall cold/snowy winters and year after year of clunkers. It makes you realize how small our perceived windows variability really are. The range of what we think is "legitimately" possible in any given winter or series of winters around here is almost certainly too small.
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SD said:
How can years have a 6+ in Dec and another 4+ or a 4+ in Dec and another 4+?



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On a sort of related note, if you were to integrate all the maps I've constructed for each winter season and calculate the statewide average snowfall mean, it would look something like this for the early-mid 20th century. I evaluate snowfall at 300 select locations that are evenly distributed across the state and these totals are usually estimated from my maps and reconstructed from available nearby data points (this is more prevalent earlier in the record where there are less stations and less reliable data).
It's pretty neat.
The winter of 1935-36 is head & shoulders above the rest.

Screen Shot 2019-06-01 at 2.44.19 PM.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
Shrug? Lol internal variability/randomness is almost certainly at play, although I'm not actually sure to be quite honest, there are a few other examples that I haven't touched on but the observed range of snowfall variability just in the last 125 years or so over NC is definitely eye opening, full of amazing wall-to-wall cold/snowy winters and year after year of clunkers. It makes you realize how small our perceived windows variability really are. The range of what we think is "legitimately" possible in any given winter or series of winters around here is almost certainly too small.
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Damn autocorrect, that's supposed to say how many not how can. I agree with you though it seems like our winters are more likely to shake out something like 12, T, 4, 10, 4 over a 5 year period versus something consistent like 7, 5, 6, 5, 7 assuming a 6 inch per year average. The one thing I would really like to see here in my life is a big event on top of a big event. Jan 2000 was close, but to get a 4+ just days after a 6+ or something to that effect would be awesome.

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SD said:
Damn autocorrect, that's supposed to say how many not how can. I agree with you though it seems like our winters are more likely to shake out something like 12, T, 4, 10, 4 over a 5 year period versus something consistent like 7, 5, 6, 5, 7 assuming a 6 inch per year average. The one thing I would really like to see here in my life is a big event on top of a big event. Jan 2000 was close, but to get a 4+ just days after a 6+ or something to that effect would be awesome.

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I almost had that, in ‘12 or ‘14?? Had a snow that was 2-3” inches of slop, then was supposed to get 6-12”, think Euro had 20” lollipops, ended up with 1” of sleet/zr, then 1/4” of snow on tail end. Good times
These were back to back, 1-2 days apart
 
SD said:
Damn autocorrect, that's supposed to say how many not how can. I agree with you though it seems like our winters are more likely to shake out something like 12, T, 4, 10, 4 over a 5 year period versus something consistent like 7, 5, 6, 5, 7 assuming a 6 inch per year average. The one thing I would really like to see here in my life is a big event on top of a big event. Jan 2000 was close, but to get a 4+ just days after a 6+ or something to that effect would be awesome.

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This was about to lead me down the rabbit hole of what events have you been part of that you will probably never see at you location again and what big events do you think you will see again. Also what events haven't occurred but you think you will see happen.





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SD said:
Lol good chance

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Glad you appreciate the humor ... :cool:
In all seriousness, the far away hope is that all see and experience something they want, but with no death, destruction or other evil in the process ... ;)
 
SD said:
Damn autocorrect, that's supposed to say how many not how can. I agree with you though it seems like our winters are more likely to shake out something like 12, T, 4, 10, 4 over a 5 year period versus something consistent like 7, 5, 6, 5, 7 assuming a 6 inch per year average. The one thing I would really like to see here in my life is a big event on top of a big event. Jan 2000 was close, but to get a 4+ just days after a 6+ or something to that effect would be awesome.

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Yeah that’s how they tend to play out but we do see every once in a while up to about 3 winters with 6-12”+ & occasionally we’ll get several near goose eggs. The long term trend underlying all of this however seems to suggest that snowfall is generally decreasing for most in the coastal plain and piedmont of North Carolina with exception to the western piedmont and areas like Greensboro, Winston-Salem, Wilkesboro, Statesville, etc. where there’s either no change or actually increasing slightly over the course of the record
 
7 years ago this month....
I had a video capture card and I let it record for several hours of TWC as temperatures soared during the day (Saturday). The hard part was skimming through and editing this all together. This was the peak of the heatwave where we reached 106 degrees shattering the daily and all-time record high of 105 set back in July 1980.

 
Weatherlover92 said:
7 years ago this month....
I had a video capture card and I let it record for several hours of TWC as temperatures soared during the day (Saturday). The hard part was skimming through and editing this all together. This was the peak of the heatwave where we reached 106 degrees shattering the daily and all-time record high of 105 set back in July 1980.

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I love how those 80s in the extended forecast basically disappeared after the last day of 100*F+ temps, lol.
 
People prob wouldn’t believe me if I said Columbia SC rains are locked up in the snowy Colorado mountains. Be months to thaw that human packed snow along parking lots and under trees.
 
Don't look now, but even Australia is getting snow. I may live to see a year where I'm literally in the only city to go snowless
 
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