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Misc 2019 Banter & Friendly Conservation

Jimmy Hypocracy said:
It snows IMBY every year. Just not a lot. Can’t remember the last year it didn’t snow in January or February though. This has been a bit unusual
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If I knew where to find the hard data Id like to throw SE cities snowfall data into a spreadsheet and see the numbers on snow in the SE. I feel like the results would be sobering

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So basically the same models that could not accurately predict 2 to 4 inches of snow 24 hours out less than a month ago has a better chance to predict 6 to 12 inches of rain 1 week or so out...

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SD said:
That's not really a fair comparison but I guess.

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Lol yea I get that. I was being more facetious than anything.

It still hard to wrap my head around that tho. I understand predicting 3 to 4 inches of rain a week out and then bumping it up as it get closer but if it verifies 6 to 12 correctly a week out... I would think that would be like the fantasy map for snow a couple of days ago.

Just unreal how well the models handle massive rain and how poorly they handle snow in general.

Obviously this would have hit the mark better in the Whambulance Thread...
 
SD said:
If I knew where to find the hard data Id like to throw SE cities snowfall data into a spreadsheet and see the numbers on snow in the SE. I feel like the results would be sobering

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dunno about NC but I can definitely remember a bunch of snowless winters in Central Alabama especially back in the mid 2000s

and I dont need to bring up our snowless streak here again lol
 
Tagat said:
Lol yea I get that. I was being more facetious than anything.

It still hard to wrap my head around that tho. I understand predicting 3 to 4 inches of rain a week out and then bumping it up as it get closer but if it verifies 6 to 12 correctly a week out... I would think that would be like the fantasy map for snow a couple of days ago.

Just unreal how well the models handle massive rain and how poorly they handle snow in general.

Obviously this would have hit the mark better in the Whambulance Thread...
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I do wonder if the axis of heavy rain will get pushed NW like it always does. The setup favors a high end event with numerous waves in the flow, a fairly stationary trough ridge positioning, and PWATs of 1.7+ which is well above normal for late winter

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NoSnowATL said:
.406 and 762. Two of the best hitters ever. The crazy thing is one ( Teddy) used a log as a bat and Bonds used a toothpick and maybe some PEDs.


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Maybe some PEDs? I loved watching Barry bonds but the dude was a walking steroid in his 30s. Still I believe he was the best ever and a HOF before he ever did steroids. He just couldn’t take it when big Mack and Sosa got all the attention when he knew they were cheating and not near as good as him without the juice. So he joined them and beat their record seasons.
 
Brent said:
dunno about NC but I can definitely remember a bunch of snowless winters in Central Alabama especially back in the mid 2000s

and I dont need to bring up our snowless streak here again lol
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After 2002, winters in the SE didn't really start getting "good" again winter storm wise (outside of the ice storms) until that 3/01/2009 ULL that made me despise ULLs. I'm thinking in general of course though (so there might be upper south storms I'm missing in all honesty) but from after that, the following winters were pretty good for storms in the SE in general:

09/10 (3 of them, 2 of them being somewhat major, and one was minor)
10/11 (again 3 of them, 2 major, 1 minor as winter ended and we headed into an early spring)
13/14 (2 of them, both major, there might have been another that's slipping my mind because of how insane 1/28/14 was with so little snow)
14/15 (yes, it'd count even if I was at home then since I'm talking in general, 1 major, a couple minor, and an ice storm in the NE part of Georgia)
17/18 (3 of them, and I lean towards calling just 2 major, including that rare coastal snow, but I'm not sure with the last one)

Along with that, I know there was a 15/16 significant winter storm for the mid south, and there was a good snow for some in 16/17, but I don't exactly count those as "good" winters (maybe I would have a different mindset loool if I was in those areas). If y'all do if you saw snow, cool (with olhausen I'd get it though since he got a foot of snow I believe with that mid south winter storm).

So yeah working my way through that in general, outside of spurts it hasn't been with the old school cold, it kinda does look like a good run for winter overall for most when you look at 2009-2018 in general. Makes me wonder if we're about to get a drought soon again in that category. :\

(I'm really hoping not, as I want another wet snowstorm to experience in my original hometown before I move back out for good)
 
SD said:
I do wonder if the axis of heavy rain will get pushed NW like it always does. The setup favors a high end event with numerous waves in the flow, a fairly stationary trough ridge positioning, and PWATs of 1.7+ which is well above normal for late winter

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I guess we are still at the time of the year that a type of NW trend could happen even with heavy rain.

I always thought it was easier to track sever weather events in the spring and early summer because the westerlies are starting their retreat north and the over all flow becomes more zonal. I would expect that zonal flow to be less hectic for the models to catch on to than the more chaotic troughs of the winter.

If that didn't make any sense it is only because I don't not what I am talking about and just trying to fit in with the "cool kids" on this forum. I'll go back to my corner now... ;)
 
Look at Dallas in the 90s yikes 12 years without more than 2.4 inches lol

also odd how January hasn't had any real snow in over 30 years

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Forbes has a good article that came out 6 hrs ago euro verse fv3, gfs, ukmet, model wars, release of fv3 etc. Has lot of quotes from top brass of both agencies. Great read and links to other recent articles regarding wx models.
 
SD said:
I do wonder if the axis of heavy rain will get pushed NW like it always does. The setup favors a high end event with numerous waves in the flow, a fairly stationary trough ridge positioning, and PWATs of 1.7+ which is well above normal for late winter

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Yeah I’m wondering the same, If the SER ridge trends even more stronger, that would push the rain more NW, and give us sticky 70 degree days with some showers
 
So yea, If we could actually have a spring for more than a couple of weeks before full blown summer sets in, I will be glad to let this winter end in the middle of Feb, But mother nature has to promise no summer type weather till the middle of June...
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Like that would ever happen...:rolleyes:
 
I'm finally giving in, getting my pre emergent today after work and putting it out. The next 14+ days of non freezing weather along with plenty of rain should start to sprout some spring weeds. Sigh
 
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