• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Misc 2019 Banter & Friendly Conservation

Well, I guess I should not be surprised how this winter ended up. I got the big storm in December, and that's usually all we get around here if we get one that big. I was hoping it was going to be different this time, but for some reason we either get one of three things in the Raleigh area for winter - no snow at all, two or three small storms of 1 to 3 inches, or one big storm and nothing else the rest of winter. I mentioned it back in December after that storm. I was just basing it on what I recall from living here all my life, and then another poster actually did the research to back it up.
 
Well, I guess I should not be surprised how this winter ended up. I got the big storm in December, and that's usually all we get around here if we get one that big. I was hoping it was going to be different this time, but for some reason we either get one of three things in the Raleigh area for winter - no snow at all, two or three small storms of 1 to 3 inches, or one big storm and nothing else the rest of winter. I mentioned it back in December after that storm. I was just basing it on what I recall from living here all my life, and then another poster actually did the research to back it up.

I've noticed the same thing in the years I've been tracking weather... certainly there are exceptions and winters where there were multiple large snows but most of them seem to follow those patterns you mentioned. I'd love to get a winter where we have several weeks of big snow after big snow but that doesn't look likely to happen anytime soon.
 
You can definitely see the imprint of the SER and -PNA and different type of -EPO block we had before

Yep it's very clear. I personally think a +PNA is one of the most important indices to get in our favor here in NC for snow chances. It helps keep the storms suppressed, delivers cold to the area and can overcome other bad indices. I remember a few years back when I first started following weather we had a solid +PNA most of the winter and it turned out pretty solid despite the other indices not working out. Give me a +PNA and I'll take my chances.
 
You know what grinds my gears? Earths population. So many damn people moving to my small piece of paradise. I just miss how it was in the “old days”. I know I’m not special. I know my dads dad and his dads dad and his dads dad all saw the things I’ve seen. Change. Change is hard. I think it all falls back on one of my favorite quotes, “The reason people find it so hard to be happy is that they always see the past better than it was, the present worse than it is, and the future less resolved than it will be.”

Dos Equis approves this message
 
I've noticed the same thing in the years I've been tracking weather... certainly there are exceptions and winters where there were multiple large snows but most of them seem to follow those patterns you mentioned. I'd love to get a winter where we have several weeks of big snow after big snow but that doesn't look likely to happen anytime soon.

Or even a big storm, say 6 inches or more, and then a couple of smaller ones. But for some reason if we have a big one somewhere in the Raleigh area, then that's the only one we're going to get.
 
You know what grinds my gears? Earths population. So many damn people moving to my small piece of paradise. I just miss how it was in the “old days”. I know I’m not special. I know my dads dad and his dads dad and his dads dad all saw the things I’ve seen. Change. Change is hard. I think it all falls back on one of my favorite quotes, “The reason people find it so hard to be happy is that they always see the past better than it was, the present worse than it is, and the future less resolved than it will be.”

Dos Equis approves this message

When Chekhov saw the southeast ridge, he saw a winter bleak and dark and bereft of hope. Yet we know that the southeast ridge is just another step in the cycle of a snowless winter. But standing here among the people of Southern Weather and sharing in the cold disappointment of their hearths and hearts, I couldn't imagine a better fate than a warm and snowless winter. From Raleigh, so long.
 
You know what grinds my gears? Earths population. So many damn people moving to my small piece of paradise. I just miss how it was in the “old days”. I know I’m not special. I know my dads dad and his dads dad and his dads dad all saw the things I’ve seen. Change. Change is hard. I think it all falls back on one of my favorite quotes, “The reason people find it so hard to be happy is that they always see the past better than it was, the present worse than it is, and the future less resolved than it will be.”

Dos Equis approves this message
Yeah I think I see the past better than it was, because this rat race we live in now often makes me wish we only had horses for transportation... there would certainly be some leeway with deadlines, you know, especially if going to town was an all day trip. Things had to move at a slower pace, why in the world did we think we need to speed up and demand more, it's insane.
 
When Chekhov saw the southeast ridge, he saw a winter bleak and dark and bereft of hope. Yet we know that the southeast ridge is just another step in the cycle of a snowless winter. But standing here among the people of Southern Weather and sharing in the cold disappointment of their hearths and hearts, I couldn't imagine a better fate than a warm and snowless winter. From Raleigh, so long.
I'm not sure if I should like this, love it or say your eloquence makes me sick... Lol
 
Yeah I think I see the past better than it was, because this rat race we live in now often makes me wish we only had horses for transportation... there would certainly be some leeway with deadlines, you know, especially if going to town was an all day trip. Things had to move at a slower pace, why in the world did we think we need to speed up and demand more, it's insane.
Progress. Not perfection
 
Progress imperfections

4e0d5bea1265fb1f19284b0ad1420dbb.jpg




Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
At least the canes playing good give me something to cheer for in light of how crappy the weather has been of late. Somehow, we've been in a playoff spot for a while and there's less than 20 games to go in the season.

I'm sure they'll find a way to screw this up like they do every season and every winter storm around here
Screen Shot 2019-02-28 at 4.22.56 PM.png
 
Here comes the true test, if happy hour can't deliver it's definitely over. And look on the bright side, it seems we've learned as a board this winter (although it took some coaxing and some were reluctant to come around) but we learned to not fire up these fail threads. See...... I really have no idea what the heck this has to do with anything Lol
 
Another cold day here. Highs in the 30s and now there's some flurry activity. I for one am looking forward to spring. Hopefully it flips really quickly towards mid month.
 
at least next winter I'll have zero expectations after this dumpster fire

Thats the only positive I come up with on the last day of our "snowiest" month and met winter

I'm predicting most will still have decent expectations no matter what they say now out of frustration because that's human nature. As a matter of fact, I bet there will be a fair number who will be optimistic that 2019-20 will have a good chance to make up for 2018-9 because we're "due". If it is another El Nino, these expectations will probably be even higher. Even if La Nina, there will be those who will predict they will do well because they like La Nina better due to 2010-1 and 2017-8 despite longterm climo saying otherwise

By the way, I'm predicting right now that JB will go cold and wintry for most of the E US despite what I think was easily his worst ever E US DJF temp. forecast. He missed much of the SE by a whopping 8+ degrees!!
 
Another cold day here. Highs in the 30s and now there's some flurry activity. I for one am looking forward to spring. Hopefully it flips really quickly towards mid month.
You got a little thrill out of posting that, didn’t ya? Be honest. :)
 
I'm predicting most will still have decent expectations no matter what they say now out of frustration because that's human nature. As a matter of fact, I bet there will be a fair number who will be optimistic that 2019-20 will have a good chance to make up for 2018-9 because we're "due". If it is another El Nino, these expectations will probably be even higher. Even if La Nina, there will be those who will predict they will do well because they like La Nina better due to 2010-1 and 2017-8 despite longterm climo saying otherwise

By the way, I'm predicting right now that JB will go cold and wintry for most of the E US despite what I think was easily his worst ever E US DJF temp. forecast. He missed much of the SE by a whopping 8+ degrees!!

does JB ever NOT go cold/snowy for the east? :p
 
Well look at that, were wedging and EMLing ?⚡ look at that near dry adiabatic lapse rate, could I see hail from that ?! That’s a steep lapse rate
FD4C329F-1A9C-402E-B3A3-EE7B5BFA4AB6.jpeg
 
does JB ever NOT go cold/snowy for the east? :p

Good point. I think there were a couple where he was near normal though I don't recall him ever predicting anything ever close to an outright torch. If he ever did, he'd probably update his forecast to colder at the first sign of cold.
It isn't just that he blew it. Many others also blew it. But he was also in denial until into Feb in his not giving up "delayed but not denied" mode despite the math saying it would as of then taken way colder than anything on record to get his forecast close.
 
At least the canes playing good give me something to cheer for in light of how crappy the weather has been of late. Somehow, we've been in a playoff spot for a while and there's less than 20 games to go in the season.

I'm sure they'll find a way to screw this up like they do every season and every winter storm around here
View attachment 16941

Canes play MY Stl Blues Friday on Fox Sports South. Identical records. Canes are my second favorite team. ;)
 
I'm predicting most will still have decent expectations no matter what they say now out of frustration because that's human nature. As a matter of fact, I bet there will be a fair number who will be optimistic that 2019-20 will have a good chance to make up for 2018-9 because we're "due". If it is another El Nino, these expectations will probably be even higher. Even if La Nina, there will be those who will predict they will do well because they like La Nina better due to 2010-1 and 2017-8 despite longterm climo saying otherwise

By the way, I'm predicting right now that JB will go cold and wintry for most of the E US despite what I think was easily his worst ever E US DJF temp. forecast. He missed much of the SE by a whopping 8+ degrees!!
I think JB would of still been off without a SER as extreme as he went.
 
Unless it's a strong Nino I'll definitely have higher expectations, which will probably get the rug pulled out from underneath me. Right now I'm hopeful it's moderate though.

If it's a strong Nino or honestly a Nina it's going to be a winter similar to 11/12 for me. Keep expectations at 0. (10/11 was similar but we know what happened)
 
Unless it's a strong Nino I'll definitely have higher expectations, which will probably get the rug pulled out from underneath me. Right now I'm hopeful it's moderate though.

If it's a strong Nino or honestly a Nina it's going to be a winter similar to 11/12 for me. Keep expectations at 0. (10/11 was similar but we know what happened)

At KATL, all strong/superstrong El Ninos but 2015-6 were colder than 2018-9 in DJF, and ALL had more wintry precip. there.
 
Back
Top