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Misc 2019 Banter & Friendly Conservation

SnowNiner said:
Wow, lol. Lesson learned. SE winter seasonal forecasts simply have no real forecasting value. Just fun speculation.

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I think if you just blindly go +2 - +4 on the temps and a blanket normal to below normal on snowfall, you'll be right for most of the area a large majority of the time. It's really that simple. At least until we get into a different decadal regime, assuming we ever do.
 
Rain Cold said:
I think if you just blindly go +2 - +4 on the temps and a blanket normal to below normal on snowfall, you'll be right for most of the area a large majority of the time. It's really that simple. At least until we get into a different decadal regime, assuming we ever do.
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It's amazing considering all the things that "were on our side" this year and we're still way above normal. Next year or the year after, how could anyone actually issue a below normal seasonal forecast for the SE anymore? It just doesn't seem like it's ever going to happen. If any year was going to go below, it was this one, and it's not. Just wants to be warm for some reason that no one can seem to pinpoint why.
 
olhausen said:
I was like a kid on Christmas. Before this storm my biggest storm was around 6 inches of snow. I had been waiting for the big one since I moved here in 2006 and I knew this was the one when we flipped to snow so early that morning. Originally we weren’t suppose to flip to snow until 4 or 5 pm and were only forecasted to get 3-6 inches. The night before though the models started bringing the cold much earlier and this was the result.
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How much did you end up getting? Looks like about 20" on your table.
 
SnowNiner said:
It's amazing considering all the things that "were on our side" this year and we're still way above normal. Next year or the year after, how could anyone actually issue a below normal seasonal forecast for the SE anymore? It just doesn't seem like it's ever going to happen. If any year was going to go below, it was this one, and it's not. Just wants to be warm for some reason that no one can seem to pinpoint why.
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I think a lot of it is due to the lack of blocking. Something is forcing that, though. I don't know what. Could be the change in the climate is driving tropical forcing into a state that is unfavorable to blocking. Or, it could be that the stratosphere is acting to preclude blocking. Or the ocean currents or something. You read a lot of different smart people who have different ideas about these things. I don't know that anyone really knows the answer or even if it's possible to know, given the complexities of the interrelationships of various environmental systems. It doesn't mean we shouldn't continue to explore and test ideas, but when it comes to forecasting seasonally, you have to give tremendous weight to the bias in recent years. That's my opinion, and others may disagree.
 
Rain Cold said:
I think a lot of it is due to the lack of blocking. Something is forcing that, though. I don't know what. Could be the change in the climate is driving tropical forcing into a state that is unfavorable to blocking. Or, it could be that the stratosphere is acting to preclude blocking. Or the ocean currents or something. You read a lot of different smart people who have different ideas about these things. I don't know that anyone really knows the answer or even if it's possible to know, given the complexities of the interrelationships of various environmental systems. It doesn't mean we shouldn't continue to explore and test ideas, but when it comes to forecasting seasonally, you have to give tremendous weight to the bias in recent years. That's my opinion, and others may disagree.
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Yep I agree. Persistence forecasting. Our best case scenario for many years has been periods of of -EPO/+PNA. We get bouts of it then we warm. Those are our winters until whatever it is that's causing us to not get blocking changes.
 
SnowNiner said:
Yep I agree. Persistence forecasting. Our best case scenario for many years has been periods of of -EPO/+PNA. We get bouts of it then we warm. Those are our winters until whatever it is that's causing us to not get blocking changes.
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The -EPO/+PNA junk works well west and north of a line from Rocky Mount to just south of Raleigh, to just east of Charlotte. South and east of there, we get stale breadcrumbs, with little green splotches of mold on them.
 
But all the models promised me +PNA, -AO, and -NAO!??? What happened??? I guess I didn’t have my MJO working!
 
Should I tell everyone in the storm thread they’re tracking a cloud canopy or just let it go?
 
I'll be completely honest with y'all, whine in here all you want, heck I don't care if you make predictions of how horrible the rest of the winter is going to be because you saw a carpenter ant shake hands with a wooly worm, but I'd be careful about taking shots at those of us still monitoring/posting/following a specific storm threat. Some of those comments are borderline..... just my opinion and a friendly request to refrain from that please. Thank you
 
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