I actually programmed the winter storm database from scratch. It was my idea and the first time I had ever coded in PHP! That's really cool that it inspired you to go even further - there are a lot of things I wanted to add to it before I left but didn't (like more extensive reanalysis data for each storm).
Yeah man, when I first joined I really enjoyed those storms where we were both in unison. I'm not sure where the train went off the tracks, but I know that I didn't handle it the best. I think the Webber 1300m ensemble is a strong one, and that coastal storm where we and delta were on it and it was almost us against the world for snow west of I-95 was a highlight of my winter storm forecasting career haha (besting not only NWP but NWS as well - sucks we got the shaft, but our thoughts were completely legit).
I think where I need to be more mindful is if I don't see a certain aspect of the pattern the same way, stating it or discussing it without being so cut and dry about it. I don't intend to come off like you're a moron for not seeing it my way, but unfortunately I am a pretty cut to the chase kind of poster, and so it must read that way. I actually value when someone as intelligent as Webber is seeing things differently than I am, as it makes me go back and revisit my own analysis to see if I am overlooking something myself.
Again, thanks for the dialog on what the issue was. In the future, if something I say seems to be undermining your thoughts or seems critical, shoot me a PM man. I'm really not that way - I have three other meteorologist colleagues I work with, and all three of them disagreed with me on the amount of Wake County snow with this storm but being able to talk about it in person is just a lot easier than trying to do it all through text. I really think the reason that we have conflict at times is because we are more alike than different, both in our aggressive forecasting style and strong convictions on certain aspects of how patterns should evolve.
P.S. Your snowfall maps inspired me to up my game on my own when making forecast maps!
Oh ok! I had a really strong feeling for the longest time it was you who did this, and that archive has become one of the big staples of the NC Climate Office, I think now with better reanalysis datasets like ERA-20C being released after your stint at NSCO, something like you've been yearning for can become a reality!
I didn't handle it the best either obviously and I too feel very ashamed this feud dragged on so long but it's better late than never that this is finally over!
"
I think the Webber 1300m ensemble is a strong one"
Exactly, I highly doubt the combined effort, knowledge, & forecasting capability/prowess of any other 2 individuals in our neck of the woods on winter storms in NC can match us as a tandem. If nothing else, it's pretty apparent from how most bloggers have reacted to the truce between us this evening that we're probably the 2 biggest dogs this place has in the fight to eventually supersede and (hopefully) someday dismantle americanwx and it's paramount that at the very least we don't destructively interfere with one another from here on out to accomplish this underlying goal. Not to toot our own horn here, but if you go back & look at some of the storms we've seen around here the last few years, there's really or next to nothing that manages to get by both of us (if there is, then we have a problem lol), just look at this storm as an example. While both of us got certain aspects of the forecast wrong (I obviously botched Wake Co and the Triad, but had a good handle on the areas outside the marginal snow-ice zone, and western NC and generally vis versa in your case). If you only took the parts that both or one of us got right and used that in your outlook, you'd be virtually left with a perfect forecast across the state which is actually a pretty scary thought. The big winter storm in the middle of last January is another fine example, we both pretty much locked onto big totals of 4-8"/5-9"+ early in the game in/around RDU when others dragged their feet until it was obviously way too late.
I definitely will message you if I run into a problem! Yeah, you can't beat in-person, face-to-face communication, there's so much that can be misinterpreted or get lost in the translation behind a computer screen s.t. quarrels like the one we've been in for the better part of a couple years can progressively exacerbate and become out of control when the reality is far more tame & very civil.
"I really think the reason that we have conflict at times is because we are more alike than different, both in our aggressive forecasting style and strong convictions on certain aspects of how patterns should evolve."
Totally agree on this. When one or both of us sees something in the storm's evolution that's important or something few, if any other forecasters, outlets, or bloggers will capture, it's exceptionally hard to convince us otherwise and when you put 2 people like that in a room together it's no surprise how a potential problem could arise from that. I too often go back & check/re-evaluate my own ideas when you catch onto something I completely missed, it can be extremely healthy for everyone involved if taken in a synergistic or non-interfering manner which most of the time it was, I just think that our few differences on certain aspects of the storm evolution, pattern, etc. completely overshadowed the places where we agreed on. To quote Austin Powers, where Austin Powers & Dr Evil finally got along, "We're not so different,... you and I" rings very true here.
"P.S. Your snowfall maps inspired me to up my game on my own when making forecast maps!"
Thanks! I use photo editing software and draw up every map essentially by hand and format them the exact same way as my other pre-1938 maps on my site for continuity sake, I've tried my hand coding the maps up, but I still think they're inferior to hand analyses. I could certainly tell your forecast map looked a billion times better this time around and was more visually appealing than at least 90-95% of ones I came across out there (including Huffman's for ex). Nice work!
Also as an additional side note, while I was angry about this for the longest time during our prolonged period of superfluous hostility, and wanted to pull the trigger so many times myself to block you and was pretty upset when you came back a month or so ago, in hindsight, I actually appreciate the fact you didn't block me already by now, decided to stay here anyway in spite of me being a complete jerk to you 24-7, and also how the mods here let us run wild and inadvertently gave some time for the dust to settle (I certainly wouldn't have trusted us to do it lol), affording both 1300m and I a chance to work things out and try to make amends for the betterment of this entire forum in the long-run than in any other scenario where we both got banned, etc. I guess as they say, everything happens for a reason!
Thanks.
Eric
) & maybe someday it'll become doctoral thesis.
