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Misc 2018 Banter & Venting Thread

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Let's be honest, if this winter ends up wall to wall boring average to above average , it's not just Bastardi that busted even if he's known for predicting cold, it's pretty much everybody. Everyone chose to predict some goodness because of a weak El Nino.

I vaguely remember everyone being tilted in 2015 before February 2015, and honestly, you have to take your shot with the pattern that month even if you hated the results from it. Hopefully we get that kind of pattern or February 2010, but honestly 09/10 was probably similar to that pattern.
 
What's crazy is every set of model runs adds a few degrees each day. It really is time to get the preemergent ready. Atlanta is definitely looking to set a record for fewest days below freezing this season.

Why do some folks keep saying "winter just started?" December 21st means nothing to climate, meteorological winter is December through February, and we are certain to be warm through at least half of that time period. Chances for Deep South winter weather go down next to nothing by mid February.
 
Rain Cold said:
0% chance. This winter is going to clearly illustrate why predicting a cold and snowy winter is completely useless and will rarely verify.
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The past 3 winters we were extremely fortunate to get a 2-3 week window for a winter storm(s) but warmth ruled for majority of the winters. I was worried that was going to persist into this winter. You can have all the low solar, enso, qbo, strat help in your favor but climo right now is predominate warmth in winters. But, I do think we will get another window end of January into February. Atleast I hope we do.
 
Living and dying by each model run, in regards to pattern, will lead to severe depression, anxiety, and disappointment.

The cold will come. Sooner than later.
 
J.C. said:
What's crazy is every set of model runs adds a few degrees each day. It really is time to get the preemergent ready. Atlanta is definitely looking to set a record for fewest days below freezing this season.

Why do some folks keep saying "winter just started?" December 21st means nothing to climate, meteorological winter is December through February, and we are certain to be warm through at least half of that time period. Chances for Deep South winter weather go down next to nothing by mid February.
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I think people are saying that because most predictions that aren’t JB and other cold hypers had December above normal....so IMO so far so good, and the people who got snow are in the bonus...that wasn’t supposed to happen. Back loaded was the story here, and the only month I’ve hyped personally is February. January was always iffy as most analogs were split between normal and cold, so it was never the “holy crap” month, that was always February when matching the analogs.

So i think the only way this winter busts is if we are warm Feb. of course a torch Jan would hurt too. If we get a decent pattern late Jan or early February, no one will care how the first two weeks of Jan ended up.


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I disagree with the statement that winter weather goes down significantly for the deep South by mid-February. Some of the biggest events in recorded history for areas in the "lower" half of Georgia/South Carolina have occurred around or past the halfway point in February. I'm roughly sixty miles SE of Macon and generally never give up hope on seeing anything until around the middle part of March.
 
I should have asked for a weather station for Christmas.

The family and I went to Busch Gardens yesterday. Got there at 2 and it was raining. We saw some shows, rode the train, and had dinner. Rain stopped around 6, and then we rode rides for four hours and didn't have to wait more than 10 minutes to get on a ride.
 
Jon said:
I think people are saying that because most predictions that aren’t JB and other cold hypers had December above normal....so IMO so far so good, and the people who got snow are in the bonus...that wasn’t supposed to happen. Back loaded was the story here, and the only month I’ve hyped personally is February. January was always iffy as most analogs were split between normal and cold, so it was never the “holy crap” month, that was always February when matching the analogs.

So i think the only way this winter busts is if we are warm Feb. of course a torch Jan would hurt too. If we get a decent pattern late Jan or early February, no one will care how the first two weeks of Jan ended up.


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Winter kinda stinks if you have to wait until 75% of it fades away before you might maybe possibly get into a favorable pattern. Going Nino climo was the smart thing from a prediction standpoint. But it’s not unreasonable to become a bit antsy when you’ve crossed out half the winter waiting for it to show up. Hopefully, Nino climo wins out and we don’t get another fly in the ointment to ruin the portion of winter which is supposed to feel like winter.
 
I guess going forward, winter outlooks are crap to me! It doesn’t matter the enso state, or anything. You just need to know the MJO phase. Apparently, it can take the perfect Nino pattern and make it act like a La Niña! So , soi, snowcover, midoki, lunar phases,, sunspots, woolly worms, are good for ----. MJO trumps all others!
 
I am thinking having a big storm as your first winter event might curse you for the rest of winter. We rarely get more than one big storm here each winter. Seems the winter goes either one of three ways. Maybe two or three small events, one big event, or nothing at all.
 
Kylo said:
The past 3 winters we were extremely fortunate to get a 2-3 week window for a winter storm(s) but warmth ruled for majority of the winters. I was worried that was going to persist into this winter. You can have all the low solar, enso, qbo, strat help in your favor but climo right now is predominate warmth in winters. But, I do think we will get another window end of January into February. Atleast I hope we do.
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I think part of the problem is those periods have produced big time. The fact is the last ten years have been very productive for parts of the south. In the past ten years, AL has had 4 events where close to a foot of Snow has fallen('11, '14, '15, '17) a White Christmas('10) Snow with temps in the teens('14) and years with snow greater than 2"(08, 09, 10, 11, 14, 15, 17, 18) and that is just off the top of my head, Im sure Im forgetting some. I remember a 8 year span where I didnt get more than 1.5"(02-10)

We have become spoiled.
 
As a meteorologist, all of the misinformation I'm reading lately in the January thread is just maddening. I guess I chose my battle yesterday and will leave the rest and take another two week hibernation ;)
 
whatalife said:
The positivity in the January thread is overwhelming ‍


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Yep! The MJO sucks and never works, the NAO is smoke and mirrors, SSWs are unicorns, El Nino climo is a strawman and forecasters in general are just cold mongering buffoons. I think that about covers it!
 
1300m said:
Yep! The MJO sucks and never works, the NAO is smoke and mirrors, SSWs are unicorns, El Nino climo is a strawman and forecasters in general are just cold mongering buffoons. I think that about covers it!
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Why is the MJO so hard to forecast well ahead of time?
 
1300m said:
As a meteorologist, all of the misinformation I'm reading lately in the January thread is just maddening. I guess I chose my battle yesterday and will leave the rest and take another two week hibernation ;)
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I couldn’t be a Meteorologist, and if I was I prob would feel the same you do buddy.


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Its just so hard to maintain a snow cover when the snow falls after Feb 15. Who wants a snow where it melts a day or two later ? Give me a snow in Jan or Early Feb when it is more likely to stay on the ground a couple of weeks.
 
SoutheastRidge said:
BS. Nobody wants to see a snow that is melted within 2 days.
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Omgd we live in the southeast this isn’t Canada . Most of the snow I’ve experienced in the last 30 years starts melting the day or two after . Why the hell do you think we spend months tracking snow???

Sure we all would like a big snow that stayed around for a long time but that’s extremely unrealistic, this is the southeast


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Brick Tamland said:
I am thinking having a big storm as your first winter event might curse you for the rest of winter. We rarely get more than one big storm here each winter. Seems the winter goes either one of three ways. Maybe two or three small events, one big event, or nothing at all.
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Brick, you inspired me....and for the most part, you’re right!

When is the last time RDU recorded two or more >=4" snowfalls in the same winter (DJFM)? Winter 95-96. Before that? 88-89, then 86-87, then 72-73. The average sum of two or more 4" snowfalls for those dates? 10.9"... Which means on average those two events are 5.45" snowfalls.

basically, if 40 years of history has anything to say, getting two 4"+ snowfalls are rare, but two 8-10"+ snowfalls is unheard of...(for RDU at least) Have we seen the largest snow of the season? Most likely, yes.

The best of these 4 "dual big dog" winters for RDU was 1972-73, with 7.1" on 1/7/88 and 12.9" on 2/18/89. Another tidbit, of these 4 seasons, the earliest snowfall was 1/5 with 5.6" in 1996.


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Jon said:
Brick, you inspired me....and for the most part, you’re right!

When is the last time RDU recorded two or more >=4" snowfalls in the same winter (DJFM)? Winter 95-96. Before that? 88-89, then 86-87, then 72-73. The average sum of two or more 4" snowfalls for those dates? 10.9"... Which means on average those two events are 5.45" snowfalls.

basically, if 40 years of history has anything to say, getting two 4"+ snowfalls are rare, but two 8-10"+ snowfalls is unheard of...(for RDU at least) Have we seen the largest snow of the season? Most likely, yes.

The best of these 4 "dual big dog" winters for RDU was 1972-73, with 7.1" on 1/7/88 and 12.9" on 2/18/89. Another tidbit, of these 4 seasons, the earliest snowfall was 1/5 with 5.6" in 1996.


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Awesome information !! Brick won’t like it , but I enjoy reading information like this about different areas . Very fascinating


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1300m said:
As a meteorologist, all of the misinformation I'm reading lately in the January thread is just maddening. I guess I chose my battle yesterday and will leave the rest and take another two week hibernation ;)
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You have to just brush it off. As a professional, realizing 99.9% of the board are hobbyists is paramount to you actually enjoying it here haha. Just be glad so many people are interested in your profession! In my case, there’s not many people who get excited about prescription drugs (well not people I want to talk to on a forum, anyway)


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Jon said:
You have to just brush it off. As a professional, realizing 99.9% of the board are hobbyists is paramount to you actually enjoying it here haha. Just be glad so many people are interested in your profession! In my case, there’s not many people who get excited about prescription drugs (well not people I want to talk to on a forum, anyway)


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So you work for Clemson? Haha


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Jon said:
You have to just brush it off. As a professional, realizing 99.9% of the board are hobbyists is paramount to you actually enjoying it here haha. Just be glad so many people are interested in your profession! In my case, there’s not many people who get excited about prescription drugs (well not people I want to talk to on a forum, anyway)


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Lol, I'm a hobbyist myself - winter weather forecasting is not paramount to my daily job duties (well, unless an actual storm is threatening at which point we're then expected to be winter weather experts lol). I hear ya, my wife works for a pharmaceutical company and actually does have to talk to folks on the phone, which is not always a fun time!
 
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Jon said:
Brick, you inspired me....and for the most part, you’re right!

When is the last time RDU recorded two or more >=4" snowfalls in the same winter (DJFM)? Winter 95-96. Before that? 88-89, then 86-87, then 72-73. The average sum of two or more 4" snowfalls for those dates? 10.9"... Which means on average those two events are 5.45" snowfalls.

basically, if 40 years of history has anything to say, getting two 4"+ snowfalls are rare, but two 8-10"+ snowfalls is unheard of...(for RDU at least) Have we seen the largest snow of the season? Most likely, yes.

The best of these 4 "dual big dog" winters for RDU was 1972-73, with 7.1" on 1/7/88 and 12.9" on 2/18/89. Another tidbit, of these 4 seasons, the earliest snowfall was 1/5 with 5.6" in 1996.


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Click to expand...
Great analysis. The thing that was so intriguing (and still is) about this year is the first big dog happened so early we could afford to lose the majority of the winter and get in one more blockbuster pattern and score another big dog. FWIW, I still believe RDU gets another 6"+ storm before winter is over.
 
1300m said:
Great analysis. The thing that was so intriguing (and still is) about this year is the first big dog happened so early we could afford to lose the majority of the winter and get in one more blockbuster pattern and score another big dog. FWIW, I still believe RDU gets another 6"+ storm before winter is over.
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Only takes about two weeks of a cold and an active pattern in the heart of winter to make many in the SE happy.


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Roswellian said:
Holy crap this place is a bummer to check in with lately. Call me an optimist but it is only December 29th. Also, models are computer output not gospel truth.
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It seriously gets worse and worse each year. I’m truly shocked at reading some of these posts on December 29th about how winters over and all the forecasters were wrong. I get it the models don’t look great but even if they did and we were in the best pattern ever we still live in the southeast people. I really think some of our expectations are way to high and would be to high even if some lived in Louisville. I’ve seen winter weather although be it small 5 times already which is 5 times more then last year at this time. Most winter storms that actually happen usually show up only 5 or so days before so one should not worry to much about what they show 2 plus weeks from now. There’s nothing wrong with worrying about what the models show at the moment, but to claim that forecasters busted and winter is doomed before January 1st just doesn’t make sense to me.
 
Rain Cold said:
0% chance. This winter is going to clearly illustrate why predicting a cold and snowy winter is completely useless and will rarely verify.
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I'd take that one step further and say any winter prediction will rarely verify. I've seen cold and snowy winter predictions fail, and I've seen warm and snowless predictions fail. There's just always a small kink in the chain or variable that's unaccounted for that messes it all up. Not just on the warm side too, I had a decent snow in a supernino a few years back, where everything was supposed to be continually warm.

For instance this year, nino climo? Nope SOI is positive, which is extremely rare but messing everything up at 5h. Some are saying that the SSW and it's strength is the reason why the MJO is stuck in the warm phases and is hurting us, otherwise it would be moving right along! Always a itsy bitsy variable that throws everything off, and this year so far seems no different. Hopefully everybody is right about February though.
 
1300m said:
Great analysis. The thing that was so intriguing (and still is) about this year is the first big dog happened so early we could afford to lose the majority of the winter and get in one more blockbuster pattern and score another big dog. FWIW, I still believe RDU gets another 6"+ storm before winter is over.
Click to expand...

Yeah, I was thinking the same. We have a lot of time to try for 72-73 repeat as far as snowfall goes.


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