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2/4-2/5 Event - Mood Flakes or More?

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Winter wx advisories already posted for eastern NC for light snow/ice accumulations and a few counties in the Wilmington CWA as well, RAH will probably issue some advisories for portions of central NC soon.


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137 AM EST WED FEB 4 2026

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM
EST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...MIXED PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS UP
TO ONE INCH AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS AROUND A LIGHT GLAZE.

* WHERE...A PORTION OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

* WHEN...FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY.

* IMPACTS...ROADS, AND ESPECIALLY BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES, WILL
LIKELY BECOME SLICK AND HAZARDOUS.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO LIGHT SNOW OVER
THE PIEDMONT TRIAD EAST ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 85 LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT,
MAINLY LESS THAN 1 INCH. ELSEWHERE, A CHANGE TO A MIXTURE OF LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES
WILL RAPIDLY FALL BELOW FREEZING OVERNIGHT CREATING HAZARDOUS
TRAVEL IN THE ADVISORY
AREA.
 
GaWx said:
137 AM EST WED FEB 4 2026

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM
EST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...MIXED PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS UP
TO ONE INCH AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS AROUND A LIGHT GLAZE.

* WHERE...A PORTION OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

* WHEN...FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY.

* IMPACTS...ROADS, AND ESPECIALLY BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES, WILL
LIKELY BECOME SLICK AND HAZARDOUS.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO LIGHT SNOW OVER
THE PIEDMONT TRIAD EAST ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 85 LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT,
MAINLY LESS THAN 1 INCH. ELSEWHERE, A CHANGE TO A MIXTURE OF LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES
WILL RAPIDLY FALL BELOW FREEZING OVERNIGHT CREATING HAZARDOUS
TRAVEL IN THE ADVISORY
AREA.
Click to expand...

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GSP Hazardous Weather Outlook

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Light rain moves back into the area this afternoon into tonight. As
colder air filters tonight, the rain may mix with or change to snow
before ending. Some light freezing rain or freezing drizzle is also
possible. For now, any snow accumulations are expected to be very
light, less than half an inch. Any icing would be very light as well
and limited mainly to elevated surfaces. A Winter Weather Advisory
may be needed if later forecasts show higher accumulations.
 
SD said:
Hires models with a weak banding signal later tonight and in the morning is interesting. I worry that areas W of 95 may run out of deep moisture before getting cold enough so it's overall a light event on the frozen side. The liquid side looks decent one of the better rains since September
Click to expand...
Yeah, gonna be a small corridor in that sweet spot that gets a little surprise. All models show it to some degree, just impossible to nail down the location
 
Ryan87NC said:
The latest HRRR shows much less moisture making its way over the mountains into the Triad.
Click to expand...
I think that's the main issue here, the cold and dry moving in will quickly shut off precip west to east. Although I'd argue this isn't a typical cold chasing moisture event because of the wave developing along the front. On a positive, HRRR didn't show precip making up my way with last system until within 10 hrs. Only then it started to catch on, so that could be the case here.
 
RBR71 said:
I think that's the main issue here, the cold and dry moving in will quickly shut off precip west to east. Although I'd argue this isn't a typical cold chasing moisture event because of the wave developing along the front. On a positive, HRRR didn't show precip making up my way with last system until within 10 hrs. Only then it started to catch on, so that could be the case here.
Click to expand...

Honestly, I would be happy with no more snowfor a while.


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RAN said:
not at all looks fair to me. why is it bullish?
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Because official forecast and most hi res models, along with NBM show less than an inch. He has decent area if 1-2, but maybe he's right. To be clear, I didn't say he was wrong, just bullish prediction for large area of dusting to 2".
 
09z SREF plumes have about a half inch for RDU and an inch for ASJ (Hartford County, NC). Seems pretty reasonable.

10:1 WB 10:1 map:

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NBM is less bullish but a stripe of a dusting to half inch for much of N NC / S VA. Seems reasonable. I’m personally going to consider it a win here if we get a coating. Expectation is for a dusting. A bust would be sub-dusting or no falling snow at all, which is also very possible.

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jackendrickwx said:
This feels like one where sure somebody could wind up with a 0.5-1.0" report but you have very very low odds of getting that location correct so just slap a D-0.5" on most of the precip corridor and hope for the best
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Thinking the same. Having looked at WebberWeather’s extensive NC snowfall history maps, I’ve noticed there’s a lot of systems that seem similar to this one over the years where there’s stripes of T-2” but you just can’t know where those are going to set up until they happen.
 
superjames1992 said:
Thinking the same. Having looked at WebberWeather’s extensive NC snowfall history maps, I’ve noticed there’s a lot of systems that seem similar to this one over the years where there’s stripes of T-2” but you just can’t know where those are going to set up until they happen.
Click to expand...
Yeah, feels like a late winter/early spring nickel+dimer
 
superjames1992 said:
Thinking the same. Having looked at WebberWeather’s extensive NC snowfall history maps, I’ve noticed there’s a lot of systems that seem similar to this one over the years where there’s stripes of T-2” but you just can’t know where those are going to set up until they happen.
Click to expand...
Yes id argue that we are getting back to "old times" type winters recently with a lot of small events spread across the area. Just need a higher frequency of larger events at least locally
 
YetAnotherRDUGuy said:
I know it's not a *big deal*, but I'm surprised WWAs got issued for so much of central/eastern NC based on the official forecast. The criteria doesn't seem to support it.
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I’m guessing it’s more for this. They seem to hoist WWAs for any amount of ice.

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Winter Weather Advisory is issued for accumulations of snow, lake effect snow, freezing rain, freezing drizzle, or sleet, that will create inconveniences. During an advisory, if caution is not exercised, life and property may be threatened. Snow of a coasting to less than 3" and any amount of ice accretion.
 
I can't help but notice that various model runs depict a speck or two of snow flurries over Gwinnett and Walton Counties in Georgia early tomorrow morning. So yes, of course I'll be squinting out the patio door to see if one or two rogue flakes pass by. :rolleyes:

And, may this little system shock the weather world for you, N.Carolina weenies!
 
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