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Wintry 2/3-2/4 Mixed Bag NC, SC, NE GA

image.png 12k NAM /latest run! Hug the NAM! Yes i know, there's not snow! Boom! Coutesy AmWX!
 
Tarheel1 said:
View attachment 3758 12k NAM /latest run! Hug the NAM! Yes i know, there's not snow! Boom! Coutesy AmWX!
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You know that's the 12KM NAM and we are in a very short range, so use the 3 KM. It's better. Here is where the run expects sleet and ZR. Mind I said sleet too. Second image shows why.
download (7).png download (7).png download (7).png
nam3km_asnow_seus_34.png
 
Here's the best candidates for ice accrual. Take a look at where this map has below freezing temps.
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Tarheel1 said:
Yeah, latest run only gives me .85 of accumulated ice!!! Glad it's on an island!
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No one wants that! I need my trees! Verbatim it's prob not right. But it just confirms the colder stouter wedge trend shown on the NAM
 
Read the GSP discussion, mentioned it could get windy at some point tomorrow! RGEM has my back yard in the 2-3 category
 
HRRR may be looking colder each run, and also seems to keep temps 33-36 and rain here. Seems very close, and if we keep the winds out of the NE like it shows, there are going to be issues, especially if the low goes south and pulls even more cold air down.
 
With temps forecast to be above freezing pretty much everywhere by noon tomorrow I would think this will be a low impact event ?
 
SoutheastRidge said:
With temps forecast to be above freezing pretty much everywhere by noon tomorrow I would think this will be a low impact event ?
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Not according to the other runs. You can't go by that one map posted ealier, but all of the SR models and their trends. If they go the Here's what and trend colder, low impact is going to turn into ice storm. It all comes down to wind direction, low temps, temps when they wetbulb, low track, and start time.
 
ForsythSnow said:
Not according to the other runs. You can't go by that one map posted ealier, but all of the SR models and their trends. If they go the Here's what and trend colder, low impact is going to turn into ice storm. It all comes down to wind direction, low temps, temps when they wetbulb, low track, and start time.
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Aren't you forecast to be 45+ tomorrow afternoon ?
 
SoutheastRidge said:
Aren't you forecast to be 45+ tomorrow afternoon ?
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Ya know I like you on here, but did you not use to live here, and then you went to live with Mother? Anyway, if you did, you know that CAD is always messed up, no model has ever figured it out. It is a bizarre micro climate. DP in Atlanta right now is 12 degrees...
 
BPATL said:
Ya know I like you on here, but did you not use to live here, and then you went to live with Mother? Anyway, if you did, you know that CAD is always messed up, no model has ever figured it out. It is a bizarre micro climate. DP in Atlanta right now is 12 degrees...
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I've lived in GA my entire life so i'm well aware of how CAD works. FFC seems to always underestimate the strength of the wedge for whatever reason.
 
ForsythSnow said:
HRRR may be looking colder each run, and also seems to keep temps 33-36 and rain here. Seems very close, and if we keep the winds out of the NE like it shows, there are going to be issues, especially if the low goes south and pulls even more cold air down.
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HRRR has busted horribly on overnight lows here lately in NC, it was off by several degrees just last night and only pushed RDU into the mid 20s, we reached 17...
 
Mesoscale models are better than the globals at forecasting CAD...don't get me wrong, I think the RGEM isn't going to be right but in this situation, use the NAM temps.

Think the CAD areas see a glaze to up to 0.25 before changing to rain. Possible to get close to problems but I'm not sure.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
Mesoscale models are better than the globals at forecasting CAD...don't get me wrong, I think the RGEM isn't going to be right but in this situation, use the NAM temps.

Think the CAD areas see a glaze to up to 0.25 before changing to rain. Possible to get close to problems but I'm not sure.
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The HRRR just upped its game! Gives me .40 of ice accumulate. Trending..... Now I'm in the bullseye on 3-4 models!! Skies are very clear right now, temps falling quick
 
I'm not expecting anything other than rain(and maybe a brief episode of sleet to start) in my portion of Cherokee since FFC is saying zr/sleet at onset possible. I'm at 43/14 as of this hour with a wet bulb around 33/34. Will be interesting to see what areas are able to get down to near 32 or below for sure though.
 
This is starting to have that eerie feeling here in upstate SC...i love winter weather as much as the next guy but ice sucks!

NOT! Let's bring the noise!
 
Tarheel1 said:
The HRRR just upped its game! Gives me .40 of ice accumulate. Trending..... Now I'm in the bullseye on 3-4 models!! Skies are very clear right now, temps falling quick
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I wonder how close this could get to a December 2005 for your area up into western NC.
 
Kylo said:
I wonder how close this could get to a December 2005 for your area up into western NC.
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That might be tough! I hear that one mentioned a lot, right behind Dec '02 ( holy grail of ice storms in my life) ! There is a lot of moisture, moderate to heavy precip will be around, lock in the in situ , get temps to 30, look out!
 
It is a bit concerning the temperatures around this area even currently. Hopefully the flow will begin to raise our temperatures as we approach the onset of precipitation.......

Thankfully this area has not had any ridiculous model runs, but I don't like seeing mid 30s next to my back yard already, with wedges underdone by modeling.
 
Shawn said:
It is a bit concerning the temperatures around this area even currently. Hopefully the flow will begin to raise our temperatures as we approach the onset of precipitation.......

Thankfully this area has not had any ridiculous model runs, but I don't like seeing mid 30s next to my back yard already, with wedges underdone by modeling.
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i was thinking same thing Shawn
 
Spurs up said:
i was thinking same thing Shawn
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I went over the NAM/GFS MOS data and there really is no support for anything but rain, I would expect at least the cold bias of the RGEM to be showing something here by now. 35F and rain is always fun, lol. I can't see all ensemble members, the cold canadian, and icon all busting on the temperature here, but still.
 
Shawn said:
I went over the NAM/GFS MOS data and there really is no support for anything but rain, I would expect at least the cold bias of the RGEM to be showing something here by now. 35F and rain is always fun, lol. I can't see all ensemble members, the cold canadian, and icon all busting on the temperature here, but still.
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yea and 33 and rain is the worst lol! I think we will be ok.
 
I remember an ice storm from the past in which either the mets just completely ignored guidance or the models all busted with this area, but that was 14 years ago.

I don't expect to see anything, and I'm fine with it, but just something to think about. It was likely close to borderline then, with this it's not. CAD temps are better forecasted by mesoscales (not the precip itself) but at times it seems to have a mind of it's own. I've seen a number of times in which my temp is a number of degrees below what was actually expected due to CAD. It doesn't mean a whole lot outside of nitpicking, but with an actual winter situation, that isn't fun to deal with for people that can be involved in this, like upstate SC and northward.

I fully expect my high to bust lower than what I have forecasted tomorrow, as usual with CAD.
 
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