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Wintry 2/11-2/12 ULL Magic or More Cold Rain

packfan98

packfan98

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Looks like the best shot currently is the mountains, but many models have some dynamically cooled snow solutions east of the mountains. We are fighting Boundary Layer conditions and it could be a warm snow or cold rain. The trends have all been good with more separation and digging the shortwave. Good luck everyone!

Here's our best look currently:
sn10_acc-imp.us_ma.png
 
just want to point out: a pretty common fail point last few winters has been less amplification and a more sheared, less neg tilted look. which is a departure from the 2010s. trends are solid so far but a qpf nothingburger is still possible if this isn't as stout/sharp a ULL as modeled
 
ILMRoss said:
just want to point out: a pretty common fail point last few winters has been less amplification and a more sheared, less neg tilted look. which is a departure from the 2010s. trends are solid so far but a qpf nothingburger is still possible if this isn't as stout/sharp a ULL as modeled
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Was going to post that to me in the Triangle it seems precip has been over modeled this winter. Proggs were coming in with far more precip forecasts than we actually received many times.
 
iGRXY said:
Yeah if you're in central Virginia, especially around Roanoke and Richmond, I'd be salivating right now.
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eh

a lot still needs to go right

you ever have a day thats like, im getting coffee with my friend katie in the morning, then helping my friend carter load wood into his backyard in the early afternoon, then i'll go to the gym, then watch the state game with some friends at the bar (can you tell i dont have kids?) and maybe after all that i'll do the vacuuming i need to do?

a lot needs to go right for that full itinerary to go wihtout a hitch. so that's kind of how i feel about this storm- tentatively ok but baking in something will go wrong

btw- the last time i genuinely salivated at a look in the medium range was 1/3/18 in wilmington
 
ILMRoss said:
eh

a lot still needs to go right

you ever have a day thats like, im getting coffee with my friend katie in the morning, then helping my friend carter load wood into his backyard in the early afternoon, then i'll go to the gym, then watch the state game with some friends at the bar (can you tell i dont have kids?) and maybe after all that i'll do the vacuuming i need to do?

a lot needs to go right for that full itinerary to go wihtout a hitch. so that's kind of how i feel about this storm- tentatively ok but baking in something will go wrong

btw- the last time i genuinely salivated at a look in the medium range was 1/3/18 in wilmington
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Better chances west of RIC i would think.
 
MB22 said:
Better chances west of RIC i would think.
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as it appears yes- even the smidge of higher elevation in the western half of VA will help a ton here. but i'll need to digest a few more suites before i have i have a feel of where this could bullseye, or heck, if we even have a real tangible storm
 
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