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Wintry 12/4-6 Winter Weather Potential

SNOWMANN said:
Gsp thinking foothills will stay mostly snow per the overnight AFD. Precip might be gone by the time the warm nose takes hold. It's rare but I've seen Marion get 3in while Asheville got freezing rain. Rare but someone along the escarpment may be in for a suprise.
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Hopefully for some token flakes / ice down in the southern foothills.



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Alan’s morning update.
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The kiss of death. I’d be surprised if MBY gets more than a dusting of snow, and I’m not confident about that, either.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
153 AM EST Thu Dec 4 2025

NCZ007>011-021>025-041500-
/O.NEW.KRAH.WW.Y.0008.251205T0500Z-251206T0500Z/
Person-Granville-Vance-Warren-Halifax-Forsyth-Guilford-Alamance-
Orange-Durham-
Including the cities of Scotland Neck, Norlina, Enfield, Roanoke
Rapids, Henderson, Greensboro, Roxboro, Rougemont, Kittrell,
Carrboro, High Point, Hillsborough, Graham, Winston-Salem,
Mebane, Durham, Oxford, Burlington, Creedmoor, Warrenton, and
Chapel Hill
153 AM EST Thu Dec 4 2025

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
MIDNIGHT EST FRIDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations up
to one inch and a light glaze of ice accumulation are expected.

* WHERE...Portions of the northern Piedmont and northern Coastal
Plain of central North Carolina, including the following counties,
Forsyth, Guilford, Alamance, Orange, Durham, Person, Granville,
Vance, Warren, and Halifax.

* WHEN...From midnight tonight to midnight EST Friday Night.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
conditions could impact the Friday morning and evening commutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. The latest road
conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by
calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

10
 
RBR71 said:
I see why no one is talking about the 12z HRRR, congrats Va! Can I just ban @Ross now, just temporarily?
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Yea matches all the latest Guidance. I'LL be riding from GSO to Richmond at 8am tomorrow. Gonna be slow going, Hope I'm seeing snow pile up on Grass/ elevated surfaces and not the roads. No choice to delay/ cancel. Have to go. Wont snow 364 days out of the year, but the one day it does ugh.
 
NCSNOW said:
Yea matches all the latest Guidance. I'LL be riding from GSO to Richmond at 8am tomorrow. Gonna be slow going, Hope I'm seeing snow pile up on Grass/ elevated surfaces and not the roads. No choice to delay/ cancel. Have to go. Wont snow 364 days out of the year, but the one day it does ugh.
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You'll be safe through NC and into the VA border counties. Its evaporatively cooled in our area, so it won't even be below freezing prior to onset and i haven't seen one solution that brings the surface below freezing.

You'll have to deal with the salt spray glazing your windshield more than icy / snowy roads.
 
Like I said earlier 30 miles away had accumulating snow and we had nothing so we're off to a great start after 10 flakes on Monday with nothing else in sight 🤣🤣
 
jeremyt said:
I thought it was just living in the SE for the past 11 years? 🤷🏻‍♂️
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Our winters are like the Dallas cowboys. Everyone tells us how good they used to be and they get hyped up every preseason. Sometimes they are better than mediocre but most times we just end up disappointed
 
SD said:
Our winters are like the Dallas cowboys. Everyone tells us how good they used to be and they get hyped up every preseason. Sometimes they are better than mediocre but most times we just end up disappointed
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Oh to live in the past! The 90’s weren’t the best for winters but the Cowboys fans will never forget!
 
Call me a weenie but I think this is the only model that is realistic to me when it comes to temps, all the other short range models are running super warm.
1764871613579.png
 
RBR71 said:
I see why no one is talking about the 12z HRRR, congrats Va! Can I just ban @Ross now, just temporarily?
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totally shocked that qpf has ticked up and the r/s line has edged northward in guidance consensus :) who would have thought?
SimeonNC said:
Call me a weenie but I think this is the only model that is realistic to me when it comes to temps, all the other short range models are running super warm.
View attachment 177981
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I've gone back and forth on this. there will be some CAD (1028 high in NY during the event). about that CAD- not only is the high transient, but this is a weak overrunning system with almost no low pressure signature at the coast, neutering how much cold air the CAD can inject. i'm settling on a middle ground that there's room for temps to bust low at the surface bc of this, but not low enough to cause major ptype issues. i could see sleet making it further south than forecast or modeling suggests, think down to a hickory-sanford-rocky mount line. but it's nothing worth getting up for
 
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