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Wintry 12/4-6 Winter Weather Potential

Nomanslandva said:
Yea, it seems like we had a lot of decent chances dry up for whatever reason last year, so hoping this year will be different.

00Z hrrr looks like it held so far?
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Wowzers from the 00z HRRR, clearly a boom scenario here for VA
 
Not sure I trust the HRRR thermals, especially northern NC. It has literally no ice, I'm certain there would be more ip and even some zr. Also not a fan of it starting as rain, crashing the column as rates pickup and turning to snow. But then again, the RGEM showed something similar... of course NAM coming in very similar now. Just not a fan being on southern edge of the footprint. 9 out of 10 times doesn't end well
 
SD said:
Look at this evaporative cooling in the mid levels at onset.

A lot of people are going to at minimum sleet to startView attachment 177916


The earlier heavier arrival really seemed to help the r/s line on the 0z Nam
Click to expand...

I hope we can pull off what Atlanta did last year. Came in around the same time and they got dumped on as it was not expected


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SD said:
Look at this evaporative cooling in the mid levels at onset.

A lot of people are going to at minimum sleet to startView attachment 177916


The earlier heavier arrival really seemed to help the r/s line on the 0z Nam
Click to expand...
The Rapid Refresh went pound town on the sleet at 12z for much of the state. I can't really see a big icing event here or many people picking up more than 2" of snow...and that would be most likely in the NW mountains over to Roxboro into southern VA.

At least there's no real warm nose. But many of us are going to eventually lose the stale cold air battle.
 
Rain Cold said:
The Rapid Refresh went pound town on the sleet at 12z for much of the state. I can't really see a big icing event here or many people picking up more than 2" of snow...and that would be most likely in the NW mountains over to Roxboro into southern VA.

At least there's no real warm nose. But many of us are going to eventually lose the stale cold air battle.
Click to expand...
In our area, it’s been showing some heavy sleet on most runs over the past 24 hours. Someone right along the transition line is going to get a pile of sleet.
 
The earlier this system arrives early Friday morning, the better the chances of areas south of the NC/VA border see appreciable wintry precipitation before it changes to rain later in the day. With a stronger and slower moving cold air feed, this would be an interesting event for many of us in the Northern half of North Carolina but with the limited cold air supply it looks to be a sloppy mess for areas south and east of the Northwestern Piedmont.
 
Gsp thinking foothills will stay mostly snow per the overnight AFD. Precip might be gone by the time the warm nose takes hold. It's rare but I've seen Marion get 3in while Asheville got freezing rain. Rare but someone along the escarpment may be in for a suprise.
 
As SD said. Gotta ride the Warf Sisters. Cause the 6Z Nam skunks us in NC pretty much. 6Z RDPS is middle ground between the two.

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The 6Z Nam jumped way north from its 0Z Run. Hopefully a Hiccup
1764847378523.png
 
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