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Wintry 12/4-6 Winter Weather Potential

BIG FROSTY said:
Alan’s first stab at it.
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You beat me to it! He also mentions Mondays possibility


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This is the kinda system that will give northern Iredell county a quick shot/coating of sleet prior to the warm up and they'll call a 2-hour school delay for the whole county...leaving me waiting in the rain 2 hours to take my daughter to school in Troutman (centralish Iredell).
 
SnowNiner said:
This is the kinda system that will give northern Iredell county a quick shot/coating of sleet prior to the warm up and they'll call a 2-hour school delay for the whole county...leaving me waiting in the rain 2 hours to take my daughter to school in Troutman (centralish Iredell).
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I can see it now with that prediction from Allan Wake County will be on a 2 hr delay Friday


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Official Guidance from GSP

AS OF 1230 PM WEDNESDAY:

A COMPLICATED MILLER A TYPE LOW AND WEAK COLD AIR DAMMING SCENARIO
STILL ON TRACK FOR THIS PERIOD. MOISTURE AND FORCING INCREASE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS THE LOW MOVES ALONG THE GULF COAST TO
THE CAROLINA COAST. PRECIP SPREADS IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST
THURSDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY. THE CAD HIGH SLIDES OFF
SHORE DURING THIS TIME KEEPING THIS A WEAK IN-SITU CAD. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DO SHOW ENOUGH COLD AIR IN PLACE AT THE START FOR PRECIP
TO BEGIN AS SNOW AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS THEN CHANGING THROUGH
SLEET TO FREEZING RAIN OR RAIN AS THE WARM NOSE STRENGTHENS. PRECIP
BEGINS AS SNOW ACROSS THE I-40 CORRIDOR CHANGING TO SLEET THEN RAIN.
ELSEWHERE, EXPECT MAINLY RAIN ALTHOUGH WE COULD SEE THE USUAL MIX
WITH LIGHT SLEET AS TEMPS WET BULB DOWNWARD AT ONSET BEFORE QUICKLY
BECOMING RAIN.

RIGHT NOW, EXPECT ICE AND SNOW ACCUMS TO REMAIN IN THE ADVISORY
RANGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WITH LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW
FOR THE I-40 CORRIDOR. TYPICALLY WARMER MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS, LIKE THE
LITTLE TN BASIN, ALONG WITH PIGEON FRENCH BROAD VALLEYS, WOULD SEE
LIGHT ACCUMS AT BEST, WHILE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AROUND THOSE
VALLEYS WOULD SEE ACCUMS. NO ACCUMS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. STILL QUITE
A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY ON THE AMOUNTS, BUT MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE
OVERALL PATTER. STILL TO EARLY FOR ANY ADVISORY DECISIONS, BUT THAT
TIME IS APPROACHING
 
halve these and that's probably about your best case *for most* imo. somebody in the wilkes/surry/yadkin/stokes/forsyth/rockingham counties ballpark might have a higher ceiling than half what's shown below, but that's an absolute best case probably.

i don't buy this for the i-40 corridor (specifically hickory/winston/gso/burlington)

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GaWx said:
The 12Z EPS is hinting at a 3rd NC snow threat on 12/12 with measurable snow from 7 of the 50 members, mainly from lows that move just offshore:
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Canadian Op has it as well. 12z Can Op hits us 3 x within a 7 day stretch.

Also notice how cold the euro op and can op are 12/12 weekend. GFS OP was worlds apart
 
jackendrickwx said:
halve these and that's probably about your best case *for most* imo. somebody in the wilkes/surry/yadkin/stokes/forsyth/rockingham counties ballpark might have a higher ceiling than half what's shown below, but that's an absolute best case probably.

i don't buy this for the i-40 corridor (specifically hickory/winston/gso/burlington)

View attachment 177876
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Tell ya what, this system is trending juicer with each cycle…
 
Webberweather53 said:
For these kinds of marginal thermal setups, in addition to soundings, I like looking at spatially where the warm nose is aloft and these max T plots from pivotal do a decent job of showing that.

This looks like sleet and freezing rain for the most part in NC, except near the VA border.

View attachment 177856

View attachment 177857


Just on the cold side of the warm nose is usually where your frontogenesis is maximized as warm advection is partially offset by melting snow on the leading edge of the warm nose.

In this case, that would suggest your greatest potential for heavier snow is in southern to eventually central Virginia. You also have to be on the lookout for compensating subsidence in the wake of this frontogenesis/to the south.

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Spotted exactly what you were talking about with subsidence on the ICON, pretty clear as day
 
@Shaggy & @Avalanche Honestly, I wouldn't be surprised too see either "Token Flakes",, or a Paste bomb here on the Coast.. Setup(s) trending colder, well I've seen this/these setups before..

It will be a NOWCAST Situation, or a very cold rain..
 
packfan98 said:
18z Gfs juiced up the precip too.
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Be wary of the sharp gradient along I-40 with WAA. I learned my lesson last January when I drove home from Raleigh to Alamance to see more snow, since the HRRR supposedly kept us all snowed in up to verification. The RN/SN line ended up verifying over Roxboro and the VA border, so I am pretty skeptical of this.
 
Ollie Williams said:
Be wary of the sharp gradient along I-40 with WAA. I learned my lesson last January when I drove home from Raleigh to Alamance to see more snow, since the HRRR supposedly kept us all snowed in up to verification. The RN/SN line ended up verifying over Roxboro and the VA border, so I am pretty skeptical of this.
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For sure. If I were to make my best guess, I’d use the latest run of the GEFS and cut the totals in half. I think it gives a pretty good outline about who could see any winter weather and where some accumulation can occur. Lots of sloppy dustings to 1/2” areas.



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packfan98 said:
For sure. If I were to make my best guess, I’d use the latest run of the GEFS and cut the totals in half. I think it gives a pretty good outline about who could see any winter weather and where some accumulation can occur. Lots of sloppy dustings to 1/2” areas.



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Unless you live in SW VA where legit solid ratios look to occur. I expect every flake to stick in Blacksburg, VA
 
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