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Wintry 12/4-6 Winter Weather Potential

this just screams climo. I40 north with a quick burst of snow then a transition to a mix. My neck of the woods and 85 north crowd might get a quick burst of sleet or ZR before switching over to rain. I might wake up to a surprise tree top glaze at most around here.
 
FallsLake said:
That looks good, but I like the 9z RAP even better (for me, haha):
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We're hanging on by a thread lol. But tbh, models always seem to under estimate frontogenesis precip, so a quick front end thump still not out of the question. Seen it time and time again
 
58e13f05b89c19ae797eca725f7e47db.jpg

12z gfs is nice!!


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i think now we're firmly in "watch out for the north + amped" territory. based on current guidance you have to internalize that this will be a winston salem-roxboro (as god intended)-virginia beach r/s line and pray that the cams reject that familiar tendency if you are south of that line
 
The reason the GFS goes crazy with amounts and is further south is Because it goes bonkers with the dynamic cooling as precip arrives and nukes the 850s as it arrives
IMG_0266.gifFor ex, here’s the columns here right before the precipitation arrives IMG_0270.png the crash during the band (says rain but that’s a all wet snow sounding) IMG_0272.png
Do I buy it ? No. But a stronger intial batch of precipitation driven by frontogenesis and warm air advection could dynamically cool areas that aren’t expected to see much, and that has happened before IMG_0268.png
 
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15z RAP is basically nothing unless you are north of I40. I think I trust that over the GFS considering it's a short range model. I hope the GFS is correct though!
 
As with most of these warm advection type setups, anyone outside the mtns south of the VA border or possibly even the I-64 corridor in VA should be worried about mixing issues and be skeptical of any global model clown snow map.

Quicker onset of precipitation is likely to occur tho, which will make the morning commute potentially a mess
 
ukmet matches my thoughts based on climo alone. doesn't mean a miracle can't happen, but i'm with webber on the ptype thing. even if the cold air source magically strengthened, i still think +sn wouldn't be the dominant ptype for a lot of areas, at this point
 
For these kinds of marginal thermal setups, in addition to soundings, I like looking at spatially where the warm nose is aloft and these max T plots from pivotal do a decent job of showing that.

This looks like sleet and freezing rain for the most part in NC, except near the VA border.

IMG_6770.png

IMG_6771.png


Just on the cold side of the warm nose is usually where your frontogenesis is maximized as warm advection is partially offset by melting snow on the leading edge of the warm nose.

In this case, that would suggest your greatest potential for heavier snow is in southern to eventually central Virginia. You also have to be on the lookout for compensating subsidence in the wake of this frontogenesis/to the south.

 
Ross said:
yall hear that? my storm. ross scores again
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I figured as much, that's why I have been quiet... With our luck here in NC, Monday will most likely be a BIG NOTHING BURGER also!!!

I'm wanting to go deer hunting in the snow, dang it...
 
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Feeling good about my chances in central VA Friday… issue is, with timing looking earlier than it did yesterday, I’m now a little worried about the Getting There process from DC to Richmond area lol. Can’t leave the city til 1230ish due to work meetings
 
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