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Wintry 12/4-6 Winter Weather Potential

I won't be surprised if CLT, especially the northern burbs get in on some ZR out of this, especially since the 18z Euro keeps a lot of wintry going on into the afternoon for the I-40 corridor.
 
In this area we have to hit the initial shot hard, soundings aren't bad. Half assing the onset with patchy returns or hours of virga will just allow the mid levels to bake. The analog that @BullCityWx mentioned is a great example of going hard at onset and you have a decent stripe of winter precip nam4km_2025120300_060_35.41--78.9.png
 
0z, 03z 09z 12z and 15z running tonight through tomorrow are going to be crucial runs as the vort has entered the US. We'll get OBS data. If these runs uptrend, then it's really worth looking into. But if you start to see downtrends after this. Many times it's time to pack it up. Only one way to find out what'll happen. Time
 
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SnowNiner said:
It does look like a solid VA advisory advent. Congrats @LukeBarrette. I think this will actually be a December to remember for you.
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Thanks man, I feeling confident right now for sure. Sometimes things work out but we will see!
 
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