Wintry 12/4-6 Winter Weather Potential

[KyloG]

Yep…i40 to southern VA special

 

[SimeonNC]

I won't be surprised if CLT, especially the northern burbs get in on some ZR out of this, especially since the 18z Euro keeps a lot of wintry going on into the afternoon for the I-40 corridor.

 

[BullCityWx]

It'll be interesting to see if we can get the initial thump of waa/fgen to over perform before the column warms significantly. Overall has the makings of a system to do it, you can see the hints on the models already

See: January 5th last year

 

[SD]

I love how there's always one layer that's like a stove top. Take out the dookie layer and id boogie with this sounding

 

[BullCityWx]

#5 analog on the CIPS guidance from hour 84 on the GFS is 11/19/2000.

 

[Bigedd09]

#5 analog on the CIPS guidance from hour 84 on the GFS is 11/19/2000.

What are the first 4?


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[Chazwin]

#5 analog on the CIPS guidance from hour 84 on the GFS is 11/19/2000.

I will say that system did see a general push of everything south in the modeling over the last 24 hours leading up to it.

 

[SD]

#5 analog on the CIPS guidance from hour 84 on the GFS is 11/19/2000.

Link? I can't find mine anymore.

And yes that is a decent analog here

 

[iwantsouthernsnow123]

I love how there's always one layer that's like a stove top. Take out the dookie layer and id boogie with this soundingView attachment 177781

Yep until the next day when NAM takes it all away from us.

 

[Bigedd09]

Looks like the NAM is gonna be warm


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[Bigedd09]

NAM has precip moving in pretty early but all rain unless you’re in Virginia. Brutal


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[SD]

Nam is probably all snow/sleet along and north of 158. Classic Roxboro, Oxford, South Hill event

 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

3k NAM noticeably cooler vs 12k NAM

 

[SD]

In this area we have to hit the initial shot hard, soundings aren't bad. Half assing the onset with patchy returns or hours of virga will just allow the mid levels to bake. The analog that @BullCityWx mentioned is a great example of going hard at onset and you have a decent stripe of winter precip

 

[LukeBarrette]

Not bad for Blacksburg Friday morning

 

[Bigedd09]

Yeah icon warmer too


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[NCSNOW]

Yeah icon warmer too


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No need to sweat it . Monday into Tuesday gonna be the payday.

 

[iwantsouthernsnow123]

0z, 03z 09z 12z and 15z running tonight through tomorrow are going to be crucial runs as the vort has entered the US. We'll get OBS data. If these runs uptrend, then it's really worth looking into. But if you start to see downtrends after this. Many times it's time to pack it up. Only one way to find out what'll happen. Time

 

[Chazwin]

No need to sweat it . Monday into Tuesday gonna be the payday.

To me that looks like a much better overall set up than this Friday deal has ever shown, especially for areas south of I-40.

 

[hky1894]

Gfs looks good for foothills!


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[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

Oh my, 0Z UK coming in much colder.

 

[Webberweather53]

 

[NCSNOW]

6z GFS



6z ICON


6z Ukmet


6Z ECMF-AIFS


6z RDPS


Then theres the 6z NAM

 

[Bigedd09]

6z GFS

View attachment 177795

6z ICON

View attachment 177796
6z Ukmet
View attachment 177797

6Z ECMF-AIFS
View attachment 177798

6z RDPS
View attachment 177799

Then theres the 6z NAM
View attachment 177800

Well on to the next lol


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[NCSNOW]

6z RDPS

 

[NCSNOW]

Well on to the next lol


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I filled you out a RX Prescription in the other thread. Take 2 and don't watch the models in 8 hours or your symptoms will come back

 

[Bigedd09]

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[Bigedd09]

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All hail the GRAF


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[Bigedd09]

Anyone have to 6z Euro?


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[Rain Cold]

Anyone have to 6z Euro?


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[Bigedd09]

View attachment 177814
View attachment 177813

Thanks. Congrats I40 north and Virginia


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[Bigedd09]

FWIW the 09z Rap had a solid burst of sleet for 85 north and solid burst of snow for I40 north

 

[BullCityWx]

6z GFS showed how you make the absolute most of this scenario.

 

[SnowNiner]

It does look like a solid VA advisory advent. Congrats @LukeBarrette. I think this will actually be a December to remember for you.

 

[LukeBarrette]

It does look like a solid VA advisory advent. Congrats @LukeBarrette. I think this will actually be a December to remember for you.

Thanks man, I feeling confident right now for sure. Sometimes things work out but we will see!

 

[Bigedd09]

Man couldn't ask for better timing on Friday. 4am-7am precip arrival but still gonna be too warm for most of NC

 

[Bigedd09]

HRRR also with a burst of sleet 85 north and snow 40 north

 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

HRRR also with a burst of sleet 85 north and snow 40 north

Looks identical to RAP. Same boundaries

 

[BrickTamland]

Looks like a mix scenario here. Maybe just laying down the foundation for something bigger next Monday.

 

[LukeBarrette]

12z HRRR