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Wintry 1/9-12 Winter Potential Great Dane or Yorkie

Uncle Nasty said:
A lot of the snow maps being posted on various forums look beautiful for my area,, but as usual, I'm keeping my expectations low for the simple fact that WAA can destroy a good snow in Chattanooga. It happened last January. We were 33° with a mix before turning to all rain. Across the Tennessee river and points north got hammered with snow. We were 8 miles away from a 2" minimum snow where the rain/snow line cut off. Portions of north Hamilton County received 8" and even more as you go up the mountains around Dunlap. The thing about Chattanooga is that we might go 5-10 years with minimal snow, but when we do score, it's normally on the extreme high levels. Here's to hoping this could be one of those extremes!

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This is why I haven’t gotten my hopes up yet…

That snow last year was brutal.


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DopplerWx said:
Can’t remember the last time we had such a legit snowpack to our immediate north before a storm like this, very intrigued to see how it affects our temps as we get closer to go time
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I’m guessing the last time was probably February 2014 and I remember how the model kept trending colder at the surface, especially in the last 72 hours.
 
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Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:
Better stop wishing the phase away
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Trending the 50/50 stronger means we can afford to get some phasing together. This idea of getting the N/S to miss the ULL and dig to produce our precip doesn't look good and has a way bigger chance of suppression or very light returns further east.
 
Euro surface observations look a little warmer. LP looks to track ENE. If we can get to to stay south, we'd be in business. Nothing to worry about this point though- lots of time to work that out.
 
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Let’s break down, in simple terms, why the latest ECMWF run seems like a miss and possibly the worst-case scenario. This model shows a setup where there’s little to no Midwest ridging, which means the jet stream stays more flat (zonal) and doesn’t dip enough to amplify the pattern. Because of this, the trough is weak and doesn’t dig deep enough to bring cold Arctic air far south.

This allows warm, moist air from the Gulf (red arrow) to push farther north, shifting the storm track northeast through the Ohio Valley. As a result, wintry precipitation is limited, with snow and ice only forming on the northern fringe of the system where cold air barely holds on.

Without strong ridging in the Midwest to block and force the jet stream to buckle, there’s less energy for a deep low-pressure system to form. This scenario shows how critical ridging, trough depth, and storm track are for creating impactful winter weather.

We really wont know much until the models sort out this ridging.
 
Showmeyourtds said:
Euro surface observations look a little warmer. LP looks to track ENE. If we can get to to stay south, we'd be in business. Nothing to worry about this point though- lots of time to work that out.
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I was honestly surprised with that look of the 50/50 and the storm track that it would have been a bit cooler
 
SD said:
Yep we all need some competing factors now. Good luck mods
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You nailed that as a board wide event seems unlikely at this point. Basically 4 sectors rooting for different things. Some model runs will get trashed because it screws them while it's glory for others. The majority of the 12Z suite was good for the nw upstate which is worrisome this far out. There's still a glimmer that the majority get in on snow in GA, SC and NC..thats the one I'm hoping plays out as most of us are like Lainey on Ozempic...starving!
 
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C
bouncycorn said:
12z Pangu-AI ensemble. I added a spaghetti to the 0C temp lines, and you can see there is lots of uncertainty on final r/s line.
Consistent synoptic look though between last night's run and today
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Couldn't ask for a better SLP location clustering.
 
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