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Wintry 1/9-12 Winter Potential Great Dane or Yorkie

Man what a roller coaster. Looks like we're steady as she goes on temps for MBY but the phase interaction has trended weaker. That's kind of the issue we started with, storm or no storm, lol. Hate to see the EPS and GEFS back off with less phasing today. Hopefully that swings back overnight.

Long couple of days ahead.
 
jimmy said:
View attachment 159971

MY TAKEAWAY​

Option 1 (Top Scenario):​

  • Storm Track: The low-pressure system takes a more northerly route, bringing warm Gulf air farther north ahead of the system.
  • Impact: This leads to a predominant rain event across much of the Southeast, with a narrow band of mixed precipitation (sleet/freezing rain) to the north of the rain zone. Snowfall is confined to areas farther north, where the cold air remains entrenched.
  • Cause: This setup typically results from a weaker ridge in the Midwest and a more zonal flow, which limits how far south the cold air can push. The warm air overruns the majority of the storm track, reducing the chances of significant snow in the southern regions.

Option 2 (Bottom Scenario):​

  • Storm Track: The low-pressure system tracks farther south, allowing cold air to dive deeper into the South and interact with Gulf moisture.
  • Impact: Snowfall becomes the dominant precipitation type for a much larger area, especially in the Tennessee Valley, Mid-South, and into the Carolinas. A more widespread snow/mix zone appears, with less rain compared to Option 1. The transition zone shifts farther south, making this a colder and snowier outcome for many areas.
  • Cause: This is driven by stronger Midwest ridging, which amplifies the jet stream and allows Arctic air to penetrate farther south. The storm track is forced to stay south, creating better conditions for snow.

Key Takeaways:​

  • Option 1 favors warmer conditions with limited snow, especially for southern regions.
  • Option 2 is a more favorable setup for widespread snow and wintry weather, thanks to a colder, more suppressed storm track.
  • The eventual outcome will depend on the strength of the Midwest ridge and how far south the cold air can push before the storm arrives.
Click to expand...
I feel like the mix line on option one would be way more south due to the presence of CAD
 
jimmy said:
View attachment 159971

MY TAKEAWAY​

Option 1 (Top Scenario):​

  • Storm Track: The low-pressure system takes a more northerly route, bringing warm Gulf air farther north ahead of the system.
  • Impact: This leads to a predominant rain event across much of the Southeast, with a narrow band of mixed precipitation (sleet/freezing rain) to the north of the rain zone. Snowfall is confined to areas farther north, where the cold air remains entrenched.
  • Cause: This setup typically results from a weaker ridge in the Midwest and a more zonal flow, which limits how far south the cold air can push. The warm air overruns the majority of the storm track, reducing the chances of significant snow in the southern regions.

Option 2 (Bottom Scenario):​

  • Storm Track: The low-pressure system tracks farther south, allowing cold air to dive deeper into the South and interact with Gulf moisture.
  • Impact: Snowfall becomes the dominant precipitation type for a much larger area, especially in the Tennessee Valley, Mid-South, and into the Carolinas. A more widespread snow/mix zone appears, with less rain compared to Option 1. The transition zone shifts farther south, making this a colder and snowier outcome for many areas.
  • Cause: This is driven by stronger Midwest ridging, which amplifies the jet stream and allows Arctic air to penetrate farther south. The storm track is forced to stay south, creating better conditions for snow.

Key Takeaways:​

  • Option 1 favors warmer conditions with limited snow, especially for southern regions.
  • Option 2 is a more favorable setup for widespread snow and wintry weather, thanks to a colder, more suppressed storm track.
  • The eventual outcome will depend on the strength of the Midwest ridge and how far south the cold air can push before the storm arrives.
Click to expand...
EURO AI is perfect OMG 🤤Screenshot 2025-01-05 at 2.17.08 PM.png
 
jimmy said:
View attachment 159971

MY TAKEAWAY​

Option 1 (Top Scenario):​

  • Storm Track: The low-pressure system takes a more northerly route, bringing warm Gulf air farther north ahead of the system.
  • Impact: This leads to a predominant rain event across much of the Southeast, with a narrow band of mixed precipitation (sleet/freezing rain) to the north of the rain zone. Snowfall is confined to areas farther north, where the cold air remains entrenched.
  • Cause: This setup typically results from a weaker ridge in the Midwest and a more zonal flow, which limits how far south the cold air can push. The warm air overruns the majority of the storm track, reducing the chances of significant snow in the southern regions.

Option 2 (Bottom Scenario):​

  • Storm Track: The low-pressure system tracks farther south, allowing cold air to dive deeper into the South and interact with Gulf moisture.
  • Impact: Snowfall becomes the dominant precipitation type for a much larger area, especially in the Tennessee Valley, Mid-South, and into the Carolinas. A more widespread snow/mix zone appears, with less rain compared to Option 1. The transition zone shifts farther south, making this a colder and snowier outcome for many areas.
  • Cause: This is driven by stronger Midwest ridging, which amplifies the jet stream and allows Arctic air to penetrate farther south. The storm track is forced to stay south, creating better conditions for snow.

Key Takeaways:​

  • Option 1 favors warmer conditions with limited snow, especially for southern regions.
  • Option 2 is a more favorable setup for widespread snow and wintry weather, thanks to a colder, more suppressed storm track.
  • The eventual outcome will depend on the strength of the Midwest ridge and how far south the cold air can push before the storm arrives.
Click to expand...
I hope you continue to post more this is great
 
SimeonNC said:
I feel like the mix line on option one would be way more south due to the presence of CAD
Click to expand...
I see your point about the mix line potentially being farther south due to CAD (Cold Air Damming). However, in Option 1, the warm Gulf air overrunning the region would likely erode the wedge faster, especially with a more northerly storm track. The strength and persistence of the CAD would depend on how entrenched the cold air is before the warm air surges in. If the wedge holds strong, you're absolutely right that the mix line could shift southward. It’s a tricky balance!
 
Not that it matters.... But I feel confident that Microsoft AI model just dropped over a foot of snow in SC up through central and Eastern NC somewhere. Maybe in a wide swath. Let's hope it has some secret sauce here. The surface low steadily deepens from Pensacola, FL coastline to Savannah,GA coastline, to just off the coast of Wilmington, NC.
 
rburrel2 said:
Not that it matters.... But I feel confident that Microsoft AI model just dropped over a foot of snow in SC up through central and Eastern NC somewhere. Maybe in a wide swath. Let's hope it has some secret sauce here. The surface low steadily deepens from Pensacola, FL coastline to Savannah,GA coastline, to just off the coast of Wilmington, NC.
Click to expand...
Are you serious?
 
SnowNiner said:
Man what a roller coaster. Looks like we're steady as she goes on temps for MBY but the phase interaction has trended weaker. That's kind of the issue we started with, storm or no storm, lol. Hate to see the EPS and GEFS back off with less phasing today. Hopefully that swings back overnight.

Long couple of days ahead.
Click to expand...
I think we're gonna see a storm, it's a question about if we're either going to see a snow event, a snow-to-mix/rain event or a a Ukie/Euro solution where we get precip but it's not more than a nuisance event
 
Where's the EuroAI snow map? Storm Vista?

Not seeing any real big dog EPS members makes me thing that a light to moderate event has become the ceiling here, which I think most of us would happily take.

I suppose it's possible that there is some poorly modeled energy somewhere that, when better sampled, will show a higher end outcome.

We trended toward phasing and rain and now toward not phasing and clouds. It seems like in totality, the trends have been unclear.
 
Not to shabby
0a8cf299e4479d3a80f0adeebcf8648a.jpg



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Stormdoc said:
I know what you guys are thinking. Probably the only way now to make this a memorable storm for us east of the apps folks is that late phase.
Click to expand...

That or dig the trough dropping into the plains deeper but this is going to pull the R/S line NW with it.
 
Uncle Nasty said:
A lot of the snow maps being posted on various forums look beautiful for my area,, but as usual, I'm keeping my expectations low for the simple fact that WAA can destroy a good snow in Chattanooga. It happened last January. We were 33° with a mix before turning to all rain. Across the Tennessee river and points north got hammered with snow. We were 8 miles away from a 2" minimum snow where the rain/snow line cut off. Portions of north Hamilton County received 8" and even more as you go up the mountains around Dunlap. The thing about Chattanooga is that we might go 5-10 years with minimal snow, but when we do score, it's normally on the extreme high levels. Here's to hoping this could be one of those extremes!

Sent from my SM-S916U using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

Last January's storm had the most extreme cutoff in totals I've ever seen in the valleys. 20 miles was the difference between <1" and 7". The airport reported 2.2" but just a few miles south on the GA border the CoOp reports were under an inch, while a few miles north was 4". Last year's setup was "just in time" arctic air with a wave riding the front, and we just don't do big snow with those setups.

The ideal setup for big snow here is pre-established cold, overunning precip and a low tracking along the Gulf coast. This upcoming storm has potential to deliver on the higher end but as usual, a lot of things can go wrong lol. Just gotta wait and see.
 
jimmy said:
I see your point about the mix line potentially being farther south due to CAD (Cold Air Damming). However, in Option 1, the warm Gulf air overrunning the region would likely erode the wedge faster, especially with a more northerly storm track. The strength and persistence of the CAD would depend on how entrenched the cold air is before the warm air surges in. If the wedge holds strong, you're absolutely right that the mix line could shift southward. It’s a tricky balance!
Click to expand...
We will have a snowpack to our north, which should help with CAD. I feel like the I-85 corridor from upstate SC to the southern NC piedmont is looking at either a mainly snow event or a snow-to-ice/rain event as I said in another post
 
Hey folks, to help keep the thread flowing and on topic, when asking other posters for maps or data for your location, instead of hitting Reply, please hit the +Quote button at the bottom of the post you want to reply to, proceed to the Complaining or Banter threads and add the quote there. That moves the IMBY convos over there and keeps this one flowing well. Thanks very much!
 
SimeonNC said:
We will have a snowpack to our north, which should help with CAD. I feel like the I-85 corridor from upstate SC to the southern NC piedmont is looking at either a mainly snow event or a snow-to-ice/rain event as I said in another post
Click to expand...
The problem with the CAD is as of now, it's all but non-existent. Snowpack to the north with a SE wind isn't of much help.
 
12z Graphcast also go boom boom. I'm speechless.... here's it and the 00z run for comparison... 00z run completely left the cut off behind. 12z pulled a good portion of it in to the banging northern trough...

That's the difference with all these AI models... they have the final northern wave dropping down HARD, that's the key to a banger surface low that strengthens as it rides from Pensacola up the Atlantic coast.

Screen Shot 2025-01-05 at 2.33.31 PM.pngScreen Shot 2025-01-05 at 2.33.16 PM.png
 
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