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Wintry 1/9-12 Winter Potential Great Dane or Yorkie

We really need this first system on the 5-7th to over preform. More snow pack means stronger CAD
 
Broken024 said:
GEFS is a mix of big dogs, suppression, and some similar to GFS. I appreciate all you 🌭s who wishcashed this back to us. Keep it up.

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panel-19 is interesting. Looks like a precursor to a miller-B? Otherwise its west of the apps. The rest of the panels make sense as depicted in some op version or just suppression
 
As many have mentioned the range of solutions is infuriating/fascinating at this lead time. And the swings don’t seem to want to let up on the Ops. Very curious to see if the good ol “gotta get the first one out of the way first” pans out
 
buckinbronco said:
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Better. Would be cool to improve on it. Still wish we could get the northern energy out in front of the Baja piece like the 0z run showed last night.
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Not only out front, but the 00z run dug it farther south. Some of the more recent runs aren’t doing that as much
 
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UKMET


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SnowwxAtl said:
I think they are undergoing the cold air to some degree
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Ehhh, For the ridge to amplify further, you'd need stronger upstream forcing—such as an intensified trough or cyclone in the Gulf of Alaska—which would enhance downstream ridging over the western U.S. This would drive higher geopotential heights, allowing the jet stream to buckle more dramatically, resulting in a deeper trough over the central and eastern U.S.
Additionally, a robust Arctic air mass poised (which we have) over Canada would fuel cold air advection into the trough. A well-placed Greenland block or high-latitude ridge could further anchor the pattern, enhancing the ridge-trough configuration and extending the duration and intensity of the cold air intrusion into the southern U.S. This interplay between atmospheric teleconnections and mid-latitude dynamics would be the key to realizing colder temperatures farther south.


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jimmy said:
Ehhh, For the ridge to amplify further, you'd need stronger upstream forcing—such as an intensified trough or cyclone in the Gulf of Alaska—which would enhance downstream ridging over the western U.S. This would drive higher geopotential heights, allowing the jet stream to buckle more dramatically, resulting in a deeper trough over the central and eastern U.S.
Additionally, a robust Arctic air mass poised (which we have) over Canada would fuel cold air advection into the trough. A well-placed Greenland block or high-latitude ridge could further anchor the pattern, enhancing the ridge-trough configuration and extending the duration and intensity of the cold air intrusion into the southern U.S. This interplay between atmospheric teleconnections and mid-latitude dynamics would be the key to realizing colder temperatures farther south.


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This is why the EURO AI's signal is so bullish.
 

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We have a lot of tricky setups that we follow to get a winter storm, but this one at 500mb is upper echelon in terms of trying to forecast the interplay of the waves and what the end result will be between the Baja wave, the early shortwave that drops into the Baja wave that kicks it east / potentially amplifies it, the central plains trough dropping down (location, tilt, how much it phases, tilt of phasing) - and then the interplay with the NAtlantic side with 50/50 low extension back to the SW. I’d say it’s the most complicated we’ve seen since the Christmas 2010 storm, tho that one had higher to much higher boom potential
 
The more ideal scenario here for most of the board to score is to have a flatter/slightly suppressed wave that phases late (if at all), w/ general WSW flow aloft overrunning an already established arctic air mass that's in place.

The ceiling on this has definitely gone down from where it was several days ago, but most would do just fine regardless if this setup panned out.
 
A lot of the snow maps being posted on various forums look beautiful for my area,, but as usual, I'm keeping my expectations low for the simple fact that WAA can destroy a good snow in Chattanooga. It happened last January. We were 33° with a mix before turning to all rain. Across the Tennessee river and points north got hammered with snow. We were 8 miles away from a 2" minimum snow where the rain/snow line cut off. Portions of north Hamilton County received 8" and even more as you go up the mountains around Dunlap. The thing about Chattanooga is that we might go 5-10 years with minimal snow, but when we do score, it's normally on the extreme high levels. Here's to hoping this could be one of those extremes!

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The top scenario depicts a colder and more southern storm track, driven by a stronger ridge over the western U.S. and a deeper trough digging into the central and eastern states. This configuration allows Arctic air to surge southward, providing the necessary cold air for wintry precipitation across the Mid-South, Appalachians, and potentially the East Coast. With the low-pressure system tracking farther south, Gulf moisture interacts with this cold air, creating a significant winter storm setup. Snow and ice become more widespread in this scenario, with the heaviest impacts likely concentrated where the cold air and moisture overlap. The strength and persistence of the western ridge are crucial for maintaining this setup, as it controls the depth of the trough and the availability of cold air. Models trending toward this solution suggest an increased likelihood of impactful winter weather, but the outcome hinges on the ridge holding strong.
 
griteater said:
We have a lot of tricky setups that we follow to get a winter storm, but this one at 500mb is upper echelon in terms of trying to forecast the interplay of the waves and what the end result will be between the Baja wave, the early shortwave that drops into the Baja wave that kicks it east / potentially amplifies it, the central plains trough dropping down (location, tilt, how much it phases, tilt of phasing) - and then the interplay with the NAtlantic side with 50/50 low extension back to the SW. I’d say it’s the most complicated we’ve seen since the Christmas 2010 storm, tho that one had higher to much higher boom potential
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Great post grit! I feel like we are gonna see several more solutions still and after tomorrow sampling on the feature itself may go totally to crap. Hopefully not but it has the feel of dont get comfortable or confident until Thursday 12z model suite.
 
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