Whatever the icon does to get here I want it,
seems like thats the only way we could keep the system suppressed
seems like thats the only way we could keep the system suppressed
-
Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!
Wintry 1/9-12 Winter Potential Great Dane or Yorkie
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Yeah there's just too much model alignment against it to believe it but for an hour or so it's the newest long range run so it's the leader in the clubhouse lol. If we could get this luck, woo boy. Unfortunately, it is the ICON and not the Euro/EPS. What are the odds it has pulled one over on both of them? I'd give it about 1%.
View attachment 159576View attachment 159577
wow
Member
A broken clock is right twice a day. We might make it.
I will say slowing down the NE trough exit is usually trend seen late in the game, so it makes some sense.
SSGa
Member
Ron Burgundy
Member
Grid forecast just got some frz wording
ChattaVOL
Member
MRX afternoon discussion:
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 324 PM EST Sat Jan 4 2025
Key Messages:
1. Cold.
2. Secondary shot of wintry precip on Monday with a brisk frontal
passage.
3. Uneventful mid-week.
4. Another possibility for wintry precip next Friday night and
Saturday.
Discussion:
The cold upper level low, lingering behind the currently developing
big winter weather storm, will traverse the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys
on Monday, and its cold core will bring a switch over from rain back
to wintry precip on Monday before it all lifts into the Mid Atlantic
region and finally leaves us alone.
Zonal flow above the cold air will keep things generally quiet
Tuesday through Thursday, but temperatures through the week will run
roughly 5 to 10 degrees below normal.
Thus, when the next precip-maker approaches our area from the
western Gulf late in the week, we might see another round of wintry
precip, beginning especially Friday night and ending Saturday. This
will bear monitoring, as model temperatures look to be somewhat
conducive for Valley wintry precip, but temperature forecasts tend
to moderate a bit as such events draw nigh. The flow aloft will be
out of the southwest, indicating warm nosing aloft, if not also at
the surface.
&&
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 324 PM EST Sat Jan 4 2025
Key Messages:
1. Cold.
2. Secondary shot of wintry precip on Monday with a brisk frontal
passage.
3. Uneventful mid-week.
4. Another possibility for wintry precip next Friday night and
Saturday.
Discussion:
The cold upper level low, lingering behind the currently developing
big winter weather storm, will traverse the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys
on Monday, and its cold core will bring a switch over from rain back
to wintry precip on Monday before it all lifts into the Mid Atlantic
region and finally leaves us alone.
Zonal flow above the cold air will keep things generally quiet
Tuesday through Thursday, but temperatures through the week will run
roughly 5 to 10 degrees below normal.
Thus, when the next precip-maker approaches our area from the
western Gulf late in the week, we might see another round of wintry
precip, beginning especially Friday night and ending Saturday. This
will bear monitoring, as model temperatures look to be somewhat
conducive for Valley wintry precip, but temperature forecasts tend
to moderate a bit as such events draw nigh. The flow aloft will be
out of the southwest, indicating warm nosing aloft, if not also at
the surface.
&&
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Yesterday's 18z euro was kind of there
iGRXY
Member
Personally I’m only looking at the icon for the confluence. Like stated above, that trending slower and stronger the closer we get is a typical trend that happens. As far as what happens out west, I could care less at this point. It’s going to do what it’s going to do. Trying to bet on a phase at the perfect time and the perfect spot with just the right time and watching that every 6 hours is old. I will go down with the ship that the Canada vortex is our best shot to get cold air and lower heights out east.
iGRXY
Member
Gfs looks improved. Finally 
Still a nasty ole full phase though
iGRXY
Member
Welp let’s see what she does. It’s likely a big phase with amplification, but We’ve at least lowered heights over the Midwest out ahead of it To this point. That likely changes shortly
Stormlover
Member
this is from yesterday, they don't update on weekends, but there is this:
The only thing that improved was lowered height in the middle. Our cold air supply from the NE trough did not improve. It actually took a baby step back.
iGRXY
Member
Yuck
850’s already torching if you like snow along I-20
This GFS is actually the closest thing I’ve seen to a - tilt trof axis. This run is gonna rain everywhere
NCSNOW
Member
packfan98
Moderator
Yep. Going more for a miller b
Low over NOLA isn’t great
Mahomeless
Member
At least it’s doing this now and not 24 hours before go time….
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Much better run than I thought. Snow on I40
Big run for Detroit
Stormlover
Member
Here’s the best frame from this run. After this it’s over 
iGRXY
Member
Initial low cuts for central Kentucky with the secondary forming at Savannah. Ice or rain it is boys.
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
2-4 inches of snow with 1/4-1/3 inch of ice…
Memphis mauler
backside snow at least for Birmingham and Atlanta
GFS is phase-happy. Don't sweat it.
Sucks the trough is just booking it out so far. So much potential with this storm. Actually ridiculous how our cold air supply just high tails it out of here after sitting there ALL WEEK next week.
wow
Member
umm.. i think the wave coming down after this might need to be watched. Potential overrunning event there.
Getting consistent here now. Def yikes
I still think getting this first storm outta the way will be a good move towards consensus. Will be interesting. Other than the warm nose, why is cold air supply cutoff especially for areas south? That might be a silly question.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Cad Wedge NC
Member
Yeah ..... Who you going with? AI or GFS? ....... My money's on the Euro AI. It's a better model.
packfan98
Moderator
Well, this looks promising.
