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Wintry 1/9-12 Winter Potential Great Dane or Yorkie

WNC_Fort said:
LOL. Again, I ask. What happened to the cold? What happened to this amazing pattern? East of the Apps, we continue to suck. Just the worst feeling.
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As already stated it is a matter of timing. This is always the case with SE storms. The energy waits too late to eject. It has to go east earlier with the trough, then it will absorbed by the trough and be cold enough as well. If it waits until after the trough as depicted by Euro and even GFS, then warmer heights ensue.
 
not only did the storm dig *deeper* into baja but it also achieved a more negative tilt which helps it deepen. you can see the bulge form over TX/LA here, that's a ridge building in response downstream
trend-ecmwf_full-2025010312-f168.500wh.conus.gif
and that shunts everything north.

basically worst case scenario, only optimistic take i can give is that this *does* seem pretty extreme, it's basically an oxbow lake over the PNW. it's an outlier. interested to see if the ensembles give a solution that's more moderate
 
It looks like the euro/ canadian/ and maybe the icon (just extrapolating) are delaying until the 12/13 range which we seem to moderate. But from what I see from 500mb some huge differences on all the models past Monday 1/6. There is so much energy after Monday I think this will have to be sorted out a little at a time.
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ITUSETOSNOW said:
LOL,,, It looks like the temperatures are going to be above normal. A few days ago, it was a record-breaking, brutal cold!!!!!
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Eh, it's not the historical cold that was depicted at times before the EPO was lost, but I'd say that this is plenty cold for us in the SE...

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Problem is that the low in the SW cuts off and turns, and helps pump a ridge, and then ejects for a rain bomb after we warm up.

We did see the Euro put out a rain bomb at least once previously, but I have to say, if the 0z shows this, you can stick a fork and give credit to...the GFS.
 
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Let’s be honest career Mets was falling for it to. Chris justice was live streaming about it. I’ve seen others talking about it some to. I think this one had everyone fooled. Although I haven’t given up yet.


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Stormdoc said:
As already stated it is a matter of timing. This is always the case with SE storms. The energy waits too late to eject. It has to go east earlier with the trough, then it will absorbed by the trough and be cold enough as well. If it waits until after the trough as depicted by Euro and even GFS, then warmer heights ensue.
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The energy does stay behind the trough in this run. Timing is everything with this potential storm and this run of the Euro throws a monkey wrench into it. On to the next model runs and we will see how they resolve the energy interaction with the trough.
 
EPS vs OP. Not saying either is right, but a pretty big difference, 20+ degrees in N. Ga. EPS is much drier as well, barely gets the 24hr qpf .10 line to the southern TN border. The OP 24hr precip is almost 2 inches in Southern TN.
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sfct-imp.conus.png
 
SnowmasterATL said:
I thought it support the OPs...someone mentioned that
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Yeah, we might need to wait for hr 240 or so before we see.

Looking at the map above, some of the ensembles might have that Arkansas energy tap into that bowling ball in Mexico, but it feels like we're going to where that's going to be a factor for a rain bomb late in the weekend, with it being dry while we're cold.

Edit: Nevermind, at least for the time being on temps, seems like there's a big difference based on what John just posted as I was posting.
 
iGRXY said:
Now I know everybody is fed up, but when you sit back and think about it .. We ran the January thread up about 80 pages on this storm alone and this thread is at page 66 with 8 days to go. That's got to be a record for your typical winter's apps cutter and rain.
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Just shows how starved folks are for one that produces. Hang in there, still no real agreement with models.
 
malak05 said:
Maybe time to take a 24-36 hours off and come back Sunday and see if anything changed
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We don't take time off here. Time off is for all those other people who don't post here. We track and track and track until the thing is 6 feet under with concrete poured on top. Let's go man!
 
Jessy89 said:
Let’s be honest career Mets was falling for it to. Chris justice was live streaming about it. I’ve seen others talking about it some to. I think this one had everyone fooled. Although I haven’t given up yet.


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Pattern supported it. There's no problem discussing the potential of the pattern.
 
Jessy89 said:
Exactly my point more so TV Mets saw it to. Chris justice quote: I’d be surprised if we get through this pattern without snow.


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He’s still not wrong yet. Even if this rain bomb pans out, we are still knee deep in the pattern he’s referring to
 
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