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Snow to sleet to ZR to snow like most storms here
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Wintry 1/9-12 Winter Potential Great Dane or Yorkie
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
StoneColdHeel
Member
Sleet to freezing rain to rain and a little bit of snow for the northern counties in central NC. What a mess.
Good thing is the storm is still there.
Good thing is the storm is still there.
NCSNOW
Member
We got it all on the menu today. Canadian, GFS. Slop fest, no storm
Barney Cold
Barney Cold
rburrel2
Member
12z Ukmet took a huge jump towards capturing the cut off. Looks like it still misses but is probably generating a light event scraping off the top of it now.
The differences between the 540 line on CMC compared to GFS is comically completely different behavior in the blocking and cold
wow
Member
The GFS is out the lunch, and has been for a while with the handling of the phase. I'm confident in that.
StoneColdHeel
Member
Tell us how.
beanskip
Member
The difference between the CMC and GFS 500 mb maps at 156 hours is comical.
We have no idea what's going to happen.
We have no idea what's going to happen.
ChattaVOL
Member
We all know this will either be North or South of Chattanooga…. No way around it
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basically this
it also assists temp issues as the cold core of the short wave isn't held back. i think this is a detail a lot are overlooking
i know i posted about this spiel about "it will not cut!" or whatever earlier, but this isn't a "too amplified" issue, this is a "this slow wound up ull is pumping up heights ahead of the storm" issue
iGRXY
Member
Yeah the GFS has no clue. This storm has a much bigger issue even happening due to too much N/S and cold dome shredding things to pieces vs that.
Likely down to i40. Conditions prior to this storm is impressive imo at the surface. This would be more of a winter storm warning due minimal snow/sleet interference before mostly ZR.
How much snow you got the past couple of years? It's not that difficult to deduce.
ryanardo
Member
I wouldn't be surprised to see a severe weather event and tornado outbreak if it keeps cutting north
SnowmasterATL
Member
GFS doesn't either. I am not too worried about GFS. It will come back tomorrow at 12z
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Biggest snowstorm in 10 years here in Las Cruces on the gfs.
On my birthday too at that. It’s beautiful
On my birthday too at that. It’s beautiful
Drizzle Snizzle
Member
You’re pretty high in elevation aren’t you ?
23 degrees around Raleigh and below zero heading into West Virginia for actual temps 1 night prior to the storm. It matters. This could be a big deal for some east of the Mountains particularly the Piedmont Triad cities.
so far GEFS is faster... with a little more dispersion. nice trend
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Yep just above 4,000 feet at mi casa
NCSNOW
Member
The GFS will forever live rent free in some folks heads.
Don't you worry...it will be all rain for central NC. This isn't a snowstorm pattern for your house.
May be some good GEFS members
Not seeing a ton of support for the op.
this is a pretty sizable jolt east on an ensemble run! like i think a lot of you will be pleasantly surprised at what this model pumps out!
Mahomeless
Member
When people start to understand this…
Yep, still argues suppression more or less...or at least closer to that then what we just saw happen
It is very clear that the 12z GFS operational was a clear outlier when you have the ICON, CMC, and even last nights euro with a more suppressed look.
~100-130mi jump. Like someone said (mighta been you already forgot) let’s just get er a few more jumps east
feel like i've been been beating the drum for a while that ull = bad and progressive/weak shortwave, or sheesh, just something that kicks this thing east faster = good
Pretty much no support for the Op which is always a big red flag with the GFS. If I had to guess there is so much energy flying around that the GFS is having some major issues picking up on things
RDUHeatIsland
Member
Big jump east on the UK
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Does the GEFS have consensus?
No
No
Storm5
Member
Ukmet looks like it was going to be amped and warm