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Wintry 1/9-12 Winter Potential Great Dane or Yorkie

carolinachaos said:
It warms the eastern Carolinas up at the height of the precipitation. Then temps drop as the precip moves out? I know this is not gonna be the final solution, but one of the possibilities.


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Track and warm air advection. If this AIFS were to occur, it's an upstate, Northern GA and NC storm for snow
 
TWC already calling for 40% chance of rain and snow for MBY with a low of 33 Thursday night (1/9). And then a 30% chance of rain and snow for Friday (1/10). Nice to see the storm getting into some of the forecasts. NWS is still dry, but they're usually conservative at this range, so no worries!
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
One thing I’m kinda glad about even in spite of the amplified ai run is that the 50/50 is staying put and has even moved southwest a little bit, and has become more wound up/strongerView attachment 158837
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This is a rare big time and I mean big time storm potential though. Atlantic is backed up. Pretty rare opportunity to get a biggin
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
One thing I’m kinda glad about even in spite of the amplified ai run is that the 50/50 is staying put and has even moved southwest a little bit, and has become more wound up/strongerView attachment 158837
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That 50/50 is the reason we keep getting good runs from different models producing different setups.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
This is a rare big time and I mean big time storm potential though. Atlantic is backed up. Pretty rare opportunity to get a biggin
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Yeah man. It's why I said the other day that we have the potential for a monster storm here.
 
Welcome to all our new members over the last several days we are glad you are here! Over the coming days this thread may become extremely active, there will be numerous members giving PBP as the models run and from many different locations across the area, it can become chaotic. With that said, I'd like to give a friendly reminder of our guidelines that can be found here https://southernwx.com/community/threads/community-guidelines.1338/#post-739672 , if you have not done so please take a few minutes to familiarize yourself with these.

Also please please refrain from the one liner comments that do not add substance to the discussion, these will be deleted (especially during time models are running), our banter threads are the places for these. If you have questions do not hesitate to PM one of the admins and/or Mods. Thank you for flying with Southernwx, buckle up and enjoy the ride!
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
View attachment 158811View attachment 158812I have a growing grudge for certain things, and it’s certain globals showing ZR when soundings are clearly evidently supporting IP over ZR when precip maps show ZR. It fools a lot of people and has in past events, hence why it seems like ZR events rather becomes IP dominant
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The especially frustrating thing is when local mets don’t seem to look at soundings when putting forecasts together. I still remember January 2022 when every local station was saying that CLT metro was about to get a major ice storm right up until about 6 hours before go time even though every sounding you pulled up was showing sleet becoming the predominant precip with very little ZR.
 
Rain Cold said:
Yeah man. It's why I said the other day that we have the potential for a monster storm here.
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Agreed with the sentiments. This is one where I think a full phase actually may be the best path here - a fresh injection of Arctic air wrapped into the storm would do wonders. I'm kind of all or nothing myself on this one - 12/26/2010 is honestly a top-10 most disappointing storms of all-time for me despite getting 6" (at RDU) because of how close it was to 3-4x that much. 6" would be a disappointment here IMO and frankly I'd rather swing huge and miss however that happens rather than end up with a partial or late phaser again. RDU hasn't had a 10" storm in over 20 years, but this is an opportunity regardless of what happens. Odds are obviously low, but they are almost always zero.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
View attachment 158811I have a growing grudge for certain things, and it’s certain globals showing ZR when soundings are clearly evidently supporting IP over ZR when precip maps show ZR. It fools a lot of people and has in past events, hence why it seems like ZR events rather becomes IP dominant
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I gotta be honest, that image looks completely ridiculous. Was this a screenshot from an NES game? Precipitation type does not follow straight lines.

(Interstates, yes, but not straight lines)
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
My guess is the concern by him is that this is going to end up amped and too warm outside of a pretty far north GA, and NC event.
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Fair we seen this play out many times were the mirage fades away... I will admit this one seems to be the best atmospheric condition chance we had in several years to get some legit snow stretching over parts of SE but enjoy the ride and stay in the middle lanes don't get too much 1 way or another on the end results definitely been there and did that on both sides
 
1300m said:
Agreed with the sentiments. This is one where I think a full phase actually may be the best path here - a fresh injection of Arctic air wrapped into the storm would do wonders. I'm kind of all or nothing myself on this one - 12/26/2010 is honestly a top-10 most disappointing storms of all-time for me despite getting 6" (at RDU) because of how close it was to 3-4x that much. 6" would be a disappointment here IMO and frankly I'd rather swing huge and miss however that happens rather than end up with a partial or late phaser again. RDU hasn't had a 10" storm in over 20 years, but this is an opportunity regardless of what happens. Odds are obviously low, but they are almost always zero.
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Dang, you must be my first cousin! What a huge letdown 12/26/10 was after the Euro had 3 straight runs of a just biblical storm - and plenty cold. And honestly, it has never been the same since that moment on. It was THE defacto model back then in the medium range. Not that way anymore.


Bigedd09 said:
Not sure if I'm liking these amped up solutions 7 days out though
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You shouldn't like them. But anyway, here is a comparison of the 12z GFS Graphcast and the 18z Euro AI. First off, these models aren't dropping down 2 NStream waves like the GFS. Rather, there is one NStream wave that drops down thru W Montana and into the Baja wave that is kicking out. They both phase the waves quite nicely.

The main difference in the eventual outcome can be seen here when the trough extends down into C TX. The 50/50 low off Nova Scotia has simply cleared more to the NE on the AI. The storm trough thru the C U.S. is also sharper, with more amplitude on the AI.

Prior to these images, both models have a closed shortwave that rotates thru the Great Lakes that feeds into the 50/50, which is typical in these setups - but the timing and track of that shortwave is key in terms of how much the 50/50 low escapes to the NE.

But heights = temperatures, especially aloft. The higher the height, the higher the temperature. So, to get it colder farther south, the things that can help are: 1) Wave digging farther south, 2) Wave not as sharp, 3) Wave with not as much amplitude, 4) Wave with more positive tilt initially as it drops down, 4) 50/50 low not escaping as fast. Folks more to the NW won't like to see those things as much as they may already be cold enough.

9LmUX6p.gif
 
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Myfrotho704_ said:
The energy that becomes the cutoff in the SW hits the west coast in 3.5 days or so View attachment 158846
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I been inadvertently trying to point this out. The big question is when%if this comes out of the sw. That line in the sand moment, whether it gets hung up or comes out, is just about to cross the 120 hour mile marker. Should see a consensus form over next 3 0z an 12z model cycles. This isnt some long range storm way out there anymore. We will know for 90% plus certainty by mid weekend if shes really coming or not. Vibe is right now, shes coming.
 
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