The trend is your friend, 06z euro continues it 
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Wintry 1/9-12 Winter Potential Great Dane or Yorkie
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Belle Lechat
Member
- Joined
- Aug 29, 2021
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Are you crazy? Of course I do.
As always, gotta be cautious of mixing on the southern edge with these, but mainly use them for trends
Drawing some lines to get a better idea of where the big cities are.
iGRXY
Member
Euro maybe about to trend to the more amplified looks here shortly.
Atlanta usually does, 50 miles or more north and it looks a lot snowier. We really need to see the 700-850 levels in detail to really know the mixing situation.
iGRXY
Member
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
Lower heights moving in due to the Atlantic 50-50, good stuff
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iGRXY
Member
In the words of the The rock from 1999, “Inch by damn inch”
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️ we got the icon doing this? what is even happening 
I’d say my only concern is you don’t want to load up the overall trough with to much northern stream then you start getting height rises and mixing issues 
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
️Starting to see a sliver of blue (4”) pop in eastern NC. Good trend for many in the upper SE
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tennessee storm
Member
Good luck y’all east of apps
iGRXY
Member
The trend is your friend. It’s slowly but surely increasing every run now. The low end for mby now looks to be 2.5-3” to as much as 8-10” on the high end.
Nice
And what a beautiful image at hr 89 on the euro. Staring right into a winter storm
And what a beautiful image at hr 89 on the euro. Staring right into a winter storm
I'm screwed, look at that bullseye
packfan98
Moderator
Enjoy your digital snow! Final results may vary...I'm screwed, look at that bullseye
They always do. Love the trends, colder with more qpf but we're (C/ENC peep) still playing with fire. I'd feel good if this shifted more south over the next 48hrs to allow for NW correction at go time.
One thing for sure, for those that receive wintry precip, it will have been cold all week leading up to it. No issues losing accums to melting, been years since we could say that
As a southern fringe peep, I don't approve of the southward progression ceasing.
Bigedd09
Member
Not sure if I like the EURO being more amped up and taking a step towards the GFS. Yall's thoughts on that?
The trends are still moving southward
Bigedd09
Member
EPS looks better as well! LFG!
iGRXY
Member
EPS is improving at H5 and the returns to more precip is showing. Another increase in the mean
albertwilsonjr
Member
packfan98
Moderator
Wow! Keep in mind that these are 10:1 maps so the northwest side should be a little higher. Definitely doesn't amp up the coast at the end.
iGRXY
Member
You’re seeing the GFS claw back on amplification while the EURO is picking up more of it. Guess what the happy medium is? The ICON and AIFS lololol
N
Now that I've seen the 06Z EPS, I stand corrected.
tennessee storm
Member
Euro just maybe playing catch-up to the gfs. See how 12 z euro looks like later
Might be wishcasting but man I really think models are underdoing the cold air in place ahead of this storm. I understand the CAD will be weak sauce. But it's not like this Winter storm be moving in after a period of above average temperatures. When it starts snowing, I am telling you right now it is going to stick immediately.
Snow_chaser
Member
What’s y’all’s thoughts on the onset of precipitation from west to east? I see some say early Friday to as late as Friday night. I know here in our area in the past, schools have been caught off guard and had to scramble to do an early release in the middle of everything. Wondering if some places will play it safe and just do the digital learning day .
packfan98
Moderator
Once again, blend all the models together and it's lots of fun and games for many folks. Best of luck! We get most of the medium range models in view today. Always fun to try to reel one in and start to nail down specifics with types and timing.
Special thanks to those who post the more detailed 500mb analysis. Y'all definitely go above and beyond to make this a fun place to watch and learn!
Special thanks to those who post the more detailed 500mb analysis. Y'all definitely go above and beyond to make this a fun place to watch and learn!
NEGaweather
Member
Totally agree. If you look back at most of our winter storms in the Deep South. They over perform at go time for that reason
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NEGaweather
Member
Recent history in Georgia is they will play it safe
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Storm5
Member
Kbmx talks about guidance could continue to trend colder from the snowpack up north . Webber always talks about the snowpack angle . Kinda neat seeing it in an AFD
rburrel2
Member
It's been a long time since we've had a storm move in to an air mass like this. I tend to agree with you. I'm sorta surprised the globals are keeping surface temps around the same on each run in the last day or so. I expect some more creep down with that as we get closer.
They all have me around 34/14 as the fronto snow band hits. But then only drop me down to 31 or so... not buying that for a second! lol. I think we get in to the mid 20's.
packfan98
Moderator
Very cool to see how many here are in line to get winter weather. It's been so long!
rburrel2
Member
Another example:
The GFS has ATL at 37/9 at 4am Friday morning. Precip(Snow as depicted on GFS) starts at 5am and gets heavy by 7am... and at 8am it's 33/29, 10am it's 33/31 and still snowing.
I'm not buying that AT ALL. It will be colder at the surface.
The GFS has ATL at 37/9 at 4am Friday morning. Precip(Snow as depicted on GFS) starts at 5am and gets heavy by 7am... and at 8am it's 33/29, 10am it's 33/31 and still snowing.
I'm not buying that AT ALL. It will be colder at the surface.
That cutoff around Shreveport is criminal. Can you even begin to imagine
Love the trends from overnight and this morning. Still concerned for a GFS outcome, but as been discussed even it has trended ever so SE with the inland track. The 6z run would turn folks from RDU eastward to rain but that would be after a significant amount of wintery precip.