Wintry 1/7/17-1/10/17 Winter Storm

[Shawn]

I haven't seen Brent posting much. I'm assuming this is a no go for TX.

 

[Shawn]

SV map puts out 1-2 of snow from the euro in east central alabama around ARCC

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk

 

[Shawn]

I'll take the 12z runs for AL again dusting to 1" looks good be happy lol

agree

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk

 

[Shawn]

Well it's starting to become clear, at least to me, we have flatter colder gfs vs beefier and warmer euro. I never really liked euro thermal profiles. (Usually to warm)

 

[Shawn]

The GFS hasn't consistently shown the same outcome but it has consistently shown the same idea and now that I've taken a brief look at the other models, those show the same idea too. There are a few tweaks but the same idea is there on the models I can read (the only one I can't is the Euro as I don't pay for it).

The GFS shows the disturbance in the west just sitting there until Thursday and then instead of it really fully coming east, a piece of it breaks off and it starts interacting with a piece of energy in the GOM. It eventually converges into a good looking system but it's a little stringy at first.

I wonder what would happen if the disturbance in the west was able to fully come east and ended up phasing with the disturbance we're seeing in the GOM?

 

[Shawn]

Eric, if you're on what are you thinking about the sampling/speed today? Think the models are finally getting enough data to have the correct handle?

 

[Shawn]

I think the GFS/gefs will be right, because now the Euro seems to be caving in towards the GFS. Can't wait for 18z

GFS has been moving a little north, and Euro moved a little south. Looks to me like they are trying to meet each other in the middle.

 

[Shawn]

Anyone have any good links to track the SW entering the west coast in realtime?

 

[Shawn]

Yea even the local people have said temps shouldn't be an issue. I hope they are right.

Find it hard to believe we get over an inch of liquid as all snow.  The para gfs from 06z shows around half an inch as snow for a chunk of us.. but..  The cut off line of snow is getting very close though.  Here:

Yea I am losing faith. CAE is always on the wrong side of that snow line, so I expect nothing less.

Well, temps may not be handled completely right by these models so there's that.  CAE seemed confident last night that the guidance was a bit warm.  I've learned to use Newberry as a dividing line over the years.  Sadly.

Newberry almost always hits the jackpot.

Exactly, 20 miles to my N.

 

[Shawn]

I think the GFS/gefs will be right, because now the Euro seems to be caving in towards the GFS. Can't wait for 18z

GFS has been moving a little north, and Euro moved a little south. Looks to me like they are trying to meet each other in the middle.

Where's the middle.

 

[Shawn]

I'll take the 12z runs for AL again dusting to 1" looks good be happy lol

Are you still in Calhoun?

Yes

 

[Shawn]

Some tale tale signs places like Mount Airy, NC and western Wilkesboro could be blanked with nothing. Just cold and dry.

Tell tell, and it bares watching!

 

[Shawn]

IF they meet in the middle that will be fine by me. Give me a 1-3 inch event and 2017 will be a win

 

[Shawn]

IF they meet in the middle that will be fine by me.  Give me a 1-3 inch event and 2017 will be a win

Yeah i agree. I want a big dog but i'll take a little dog over nothing.

 

[Shawn]

Just need to make sure it sticks. Having snow that doesn't stick is the absolute worse

 

[Shawn]

Just wait until ground temps & wet rainy ground talk starts up soon.

 

[Shawn]

Just need to make sure it sticks.  Having snow that doesn't stick is the absolute worse

A meteorologist in ATL on the other board says he is 100% confident in accumulating snowfall for ATL.

 

[Shawn]

Anyone have any good links to track the SW entering the west coast in realtime?

Go with water vapor and meso SPC stuff but be delayed it all is...good thing short range models coming into play late aft to evening

 

[Shawn]

Didnt Delta Dog say he was updating his map after the Euro?

 

[Shawn]

Going with a self-induced timeout..... I'm getting absolutely nothing accomplished at work.