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stormcentral said:
Yeah, there are ensemble members giving us love and I like to see them, but still, look at the ensemble mean and the op.
I'm waiting to see the 12z Euro map for CHA...
Just saw it. That doesn't get us over the 1" hump, either...
Not a forecast from me, but 2-4 inches between modeling/blends still looks possible for CAE. I may be a bit generous with that idea though.
Wherever the heavy precipitation with just the right temperatures set up will be important between 0.5-1inch of actual snow and heavier amounts from there. I feel a sweet spot could actually be around Florence. Still a bit early and the models are still shifting temps & moisture axis.
Wherever the heavy precipitation with just the right temperatures set up will be important between 0.5-1inch of actual snow and heavier amounts from there. I feel a sweet spot could actually be around Florence. Still a bit early and the models are still shifting temps & moisture axis.
GFS has been rock solid over the past several runs and the other models have not been so consistent. After seeing today's EURO 12Z run and the waffling CMC/NAM I have a lot more confidence in the GFS/GEFS solutions. Low may tick farther NW and as others have stated on this board, I think QPF will be a little more robust and the precip shield will be a little more N/NW when all said and done. The cold temps will be there - not too worried about that. I live in Atlanta and I see 1-3" around the city, heavier amounts on south and east sides of town. Not out of the realm of possibility that KATL could get 5/6".
My odds: 70% chance ATL gets 1-3"
30% chance ATL gets more 3-6"
10% chance we get nothing (could be too warm or moisture stays to our south).
FFC should issue a WSW tomorrow based on the information available as of now. It could still change, but trends as we get closer are encouraging.
My odds: 70% chance ATL gets 1-3"
30% chance ATL gets more 3-6"
10% chance we get nothing (could be too warm or moisture stays to our south).
FFC should issue a WSW tomorrow based on the information available as of now. It could still change, but trends as we get closer are encouraging.
Storm5 said:
When I toggle between hours 84 (12z) and 96 (0Z) - I see less total precip for JeffCo on north in AL. What am I not looking at that shows us with a tick "up" in precip? I see the shift south but it appears to me that the precip heads south as well?
Shawn said:Posted elsewhere so will link here. Great precip through this area, just a bit warm:
Today's 12z On the Left. Last night's 00z on the Right.
Yea even the local people have said temps shouldn't be an issue. I hope they are right.
