Wintry 1/7/17-1/10/17 Winter Storm

[Shawn]

GFS for ATL

That's meh...unless I'm reading it wrong.


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That's liquid so 10:1 snow ratio for that area would be roughly 4 1/2 inches of snow I believe is how that works

And that's assuming all of it sticks

 

[Shawn]

1Z Euro is slightly colder in the prestorm stages.

 

[Shawn]

Boy if the GFS ends up being wrong on this it would be a huge setback for that model and I dont think I would ever trust it again

yeah especially since it has been so consistent. if it turns out to be wrong... then it has been consistently wrong... and is therefore garbage

If it verifies does that mean we should never trust the Euro again since it is showing the opposite?

probs should note i'm half joking, sorry if i came across as a twit. nevertheless it would be quite the failure for the gfs if it does turn out to be wrong
edit: and also for the euro too. in all seriousness don't think this will affect my overall perception of the models negatively, it is what it is

 

[Shawn]

12Z Euro is a little colder and the sfc low is slightly south of the 0Z Euro. The high pressure to the north is a little stronger.

 

[Shawn]

GFS for ATL

That's meh...unless I'm reading it wrong.


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A half inch liquid equivalent falling as snow isn't meh, IMO.

Weenie mistake. I didn't realize it was liquid equivalent which certainly makes sense and certainly ain't meh.


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[Shawn]

Thru 48 flat with little stronger slp

 

[Shawn]

Boy if the GFS ends up being wrong on this it would be a huge setback for that model and I dont think I would ever trust it again

yeah especially since it has been so consistent. if it turns out to be wrong... then it has been consistently wrong... and is therefore garbage

If it verifies does that mean we should never trust the Euro again since it is showing the opposite?

probs should note i'm half joking, sorry if i came across as a twit. nevertheless it would be quite the failure for the gfs if it does turn out to be wrong

Especially considering it's shown the same idea for several runs with a few tweaks here and there.

 

[Shawn]

Even more stream separation this run out west, vort max looks stronger thru 48-60 HR

 

[Shawn]

Yeah it's gonna be a little south of 00z

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[Shawn]

precip shield a little north of 00z for us back towards my area

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[Shawn]

Yeah it's gonna be a little south of 00z

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Could it be tipping it's cap to a more GFS solution???

 

[Shawn]

Sounds like maybe a little GFS trend

 

[Shawn]

Dare I say it, is the Euro about to blink.

 

[Shawn]

the 72 hour position of the 12Z Euro is about 50 miles south of and about 1 mb weaker than the 0Z Euro.

 

[Shawn]

Make sure Brick isn't about jump.

 

[Shawn]

The EURO may just be starting to cave some to the GFS. Euro looks further south this run.

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[Shawn]

Im worried about a warm nose

 

[Shawn]

same result for those of to the west as 00z . but I'll take that run .

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[Shawn]

This run definitely trended in the right direction in more ways than one thru 72 HR. Stronger vort max, more amped wave, and a degree or two colder everywhere esp over GA & the Carolinas. Good start

 

[Shawn]

Lots of precip through Midlands of SC wasted with warmer temps before changeover.