Wintry 1/7/17-1/10/17 Winter Storm

[Shawn]

Just about punt time.

 

[Shawn]

Would hate to be a Met for this storm

 

[Shawn]

Just remarkable how consistent the GFS has been at showing the same solution, with a few tweaks here and there. It eventually shows a piece of energy breaking off from that western disturbance and hooking up with a disturbance from the GOM. Those two pieces eventually converge to make a good winter storm...for someone at least.

I think this is going to end up being our solution with a few tweaks.

The RGEM is showing the same thing. A piece breaking off from that western disturbance and it's going to converge with the disturbance in the GOM in future hours if there are more hours there.

The last time I saw a model consistently show the same idea so much with a winter storm, we saw a similar idea at verification to it.

 

[Shawn]

We can't toss out the GFS snowfall output. Still going with what I said yesterday. Going with a blend of CMC, GFS and Euro with the snowfall amounts. Highest snowfall accumulations will be through ATL to the Carolina's.

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[Shawn]

Just about punt time.

lol anything for you down that way is a win. no need to punt yet

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[Shawn]

Also, can I just throw this out there please?  Since when is a potential 1-3 or maybe 2-3" snow strip across the deep south not a big deal??  I am sorry, if there is even an inch of snow, thats a big deal.  I think some people, and this is not pointed at anyone, fail to realize that 2-3" of snow is a MAJOR impact on the deep south.  I know the mtns its not as big of a deal, but if CLT or RDU got 2-3" that is still a big deal......ok, rant over.

Dude...preach!


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[Shawn]

so when is the event suppose to start in Georgia?  What time of day on Friday?

 

[Shawn]

Well let's see if the GEFS agrees or doesn't

 

[Shawn]

so we have the euro,cmc and nam in the late bloomer idea that skips over most of

then we have the gfs....... what could go wrong

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How long of a list do you need?

 

[Shawn]

so the gfs is all by itself with its southern solution . euro, ukmet , cmc hell even the nam are further north. I bet the gefs reflects a more northern solution

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[Shawn]

GFS is STILL not backing away.

Stubborn like my basset hounds and my redheaded wife.

 

[Shawn]

About to hang my hopes and dreams on the GFS... what could go wrong??

 

[Shawn]

I wonder if some offices will start issuing watches this afternoon or in the morning?

 

[Shawn]

The german weather service model is a weenie run for NC... That's a lot of precip lol

 

[Shawn]

so we have the euro,cmc and nam in the late bloomer idea that skips over most of

then we have the gfs....... what could go wrong

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I would argue that the NAM has moved more West in today's run and was more GFS like

 

[Shawn]

GFS has been most consistent tho

Thats true but its slowly drifting north...I think the models meet in the middle with the most potential drastic changes in SE Va...eastern NC

 

[Shawn]

The german weather service model is a weenie run for NC... That's a lot of precip lol

This will replace the ARPGE for me

 

[Shawn]

Please come North and give east Tennessee some love

Please dont

 

[Shawn]

I wonder if some offices will start issuing watches this afternoon or in the morning?

I'm thinking the only office that has the greatest overall model consistency for winter storm criteria snow is eastern NC which is still too early for a watch, since they're the farthest east.

 

[Shawn]

The german weather service model is a weenie run for NC... That's a lot of precip lol

Das is gut!