Wintry 1/7/17-1/10/17 Winter Storm

[Shawn]

all in

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Hey can you post the ice map, there's a reason it showing 1-3 in mby

 

[Shawn]

We are roughly 48 hours out before the system is in the Gulf and beginning to effect western portions of the deep south. Surely we should begin seeing the models fine tuning to a general idea. Gfs has my attention, and the rgem extrapolated out looks really nice down stream. Hopefully the rest of the 12z guidance can bring more confidence.

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[Shawn]

RGEM anyone?

 

[Shawn]

Today's models will "tell the tale" as far as how they trend....If they trend together at all

 

[Shawn]

And now the totals go down here and the NW trend stops. Just great.

I like where we are, I would rather play in real snow vs 240 hr snow

+100000  plus if it misses us I'd much rather it miss south so some of those that don't get in on winter weather as often can enjoy it, even our SC member(s) that love to hate on us NC peeps.

no joke!  its all good Brick...EURO will come in and stick to its guns...lol

 

[Shawn]

Also, can I just throw this out there please? Since when is a potential 1-3 or maybe 2-3" snow strip across the deep south not a big deal?? I am sorry, if there is even an inch of snow, thats a big deal. I think some people, and this is not pointed at anyone, fail to realize that 2-3" of snow is a MAJOR impact on the deep south. I know the mtns its not as big of a deal, but if CLT or RDU got 2-3" that is still a big deal......ok, rant over.

 

[Shawn]

We are roughly 48 hours out before the system is in the Gulf and beginning to effect western portions of the deep south. Surely we should begin seeing the models fine tuning to a general idea.  Gfs has my attention, and the rgem extrapolated out looks really nice down stream. Hopefully the rest of the 12z guidance can bring more confidence.

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I'd offer that we've had a pretty good "general idea" for a couple days now. Trying to fine tune amounts >24hrs out around here is a crap shoot at best. GFS has been rock solid with the track and weaker/suppressed look run after run. I MO it's about to score a major coup over the ECMWF which is a good thing.

 

[Shawn]

Looks like the RGEM might be about to show the Tennessee Valley some love???...

 what is that 1010 low in the gulf?

Pretty sure that is our low for this threat. This is only 48 hours out, though.

 

[Shawn]

Also, can I just throw this out there please?  Since when is a potential 1-3 or maybe 2-3" snow strip across the deep south not a big deal??  I am sorry, if there is even an inch of snow, thats a big deal.  I think some people, and this is not pointed at anyone, fail to realize that 2-3" of snow is a MAJOR impact on the deep south.  I know the mtns its not as big of a deal, but if CLT or RDU got 2-3" that is still a big deal......ok, rant over.

x10000000000000000000

 

[Shawn]

Upsloping is really what helps the totals across NE GA and W NC mtns....it's also why my side and Chattanooga is in a bad spot due to the downsloping on this side of the mtns as the system passes.

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[Shawn]

Delta...it's especially a big deal with the surface Temps that are pronged and even the antecedent conditions starting tomorrow AM. We will definitely see major travel disruption issues somewhere in the deep South.

 

[Shawn]

Also, can I just throw this out there please?  Since when is a potential 1-3 or maybe 2-3" snow strip across the deep south not a big deal??  I am sorry, if there is even an inch of snow, thats a big deal.  I think some people, and this is not pointed at anyone, fail to realize that 2-3" of snow is a MAJOR impact on the deep south.  I know the mtns its not as big of a deal, but if CLT or RDU got 2-3" that is still a big deal......ok, rant over.

Many times 2-4 inches has kept kids out of school for nearly a week.

 

[Shawn]

Also, can I just throw this out there please? Since when is a potential 1-3 or maybe 2-3" snow strip across the deep south not a big deal?? I am sorry, if there is even an inch of snow, thats a big deal. I think some people, and this is not pointed at anyone, fail to realize that 2-3" of snow is a MAJOR impact on the deep south. I know the mtns its not as big of a deal, but if CLT or RDU got 2-3" that is still a big deal......ok, rant over.

I am with you dog. Everyone keeps saying "bad" runs with 1-3 inches. 1-3 inches is awesome! Especially if it stays around for a couple of days. Bring me 2 inches any day.

 

[Shawn]

Also, can I just throw this out there please?  Since when is a potential 1-3 or maybe 2-3" snow strip across the deep south not a big deal??  I am sorry, if there is even an inch of snow, thats a big deal.  I think some people, and this is not pointed at anyone, fail to realize that 2-3" of snow is a MAJOR impact on the deep south.  I know the mtns its not as big of a deal, but if CLT or RDU got 2-3" that is still a big deal......ok, rant over.

x10000000000000000000

Definitely. We all saw what the storm in 2014 did to Atlanta. Fortunately, the meteorologists around here have already expressed that there is the potential for accumilating snow in Atlanta, so people at least know something may be coming.

Also, Atlanta stays in the mid to lower 20s all day Monday per the GFS. Sends the area into the low teens Monday morning as well.

 

[Shawn]

Also, can I just throw this out there please?  Since when is a potential 1-3 or maybe 2-3" snow strip across the deep south not a big deal??  I am sorry, if there is even an inch of snow, thats a big deal.  I think some people, and this is not pointed at anyone, fail to realize that 2-3" of snow is a MAJOR impact on the deep south.  I know the mtns its not as big of a deal, but if CLT or RDU got 2-3" that is still a big deal......ok, rant over.

Atlanta shut down over 1 inch of snow. Nuff said

 

[Shawn]

The 12z CMC looks more amped with this disturbance out west...

 

[Shawn]

4-5 inches imby. I'm happy.

 

[Shawn]

Good trends this morning, I agree Chris 1-3 2-3 is a very big deal, especially when your tracking it from Texas to east coast.

 

[Shawn]

The 12z CMC looks more amped with this disturbance out west...

warmer or colder?

 

[Shawn]

The 12z CMC looks more amped with this disturbance out west...

It had promise but really flattened out. The run looked colder, but was very gfs like