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You know there's some big dogs with disagreement when you look closer you have 2 max zones...one way down east and another in the MTNS...still got some sorting out to do with the EURO. I do not foresee both of these areas scoring with a gap in between.
GSP
[font=monospace, monospace]But...if we do remain far enough into the cold air to see a perfect
rain-snow transition...it won't be by much. Per the top-down
technique, the GFS brings the warm nose only one or two tiers of
counties away from our southern border during the most likely time of
snowfall (near daybreak sat). If that were to shift north we'd see
sleet and/or freezing rain mix in. More disconcerting: the 00z ec has
come in with above-freezing 850mb temps as far northwest as I-85;
partial thicknesses from that model also point to freezing rain over
the southeast half of the County warning forecast area.
For now we feel the best choice is to stick with the GFS-like
solution, which is more in line with the trends of late; this puts
the peak pops early Saturday and does not support freezing rain or ice pellets within
the County warning forecast area border. Accums are based mostly on wpc quantitative precipitation forecast and a 12:1 ratio;
this would be slightly above climo, which seems likely based on the
exceptionally cold profiles.[/font]
[font=monospace, monospace]But...if we do remain far enough into the cold air to see a perfect
rain-snow transition...it won't be by much. Per the top-down
technique, the GFS brings the warm nose only one or two tiers of
counties away from our southern border during the most likely time of
snowfall (near daybreak sat). If that were to shift north we'd see
sleet and/or freezing rain mix in. More disconcerting: the 00z ec has
come in with above-freezing 850mb temps as far northwest as I-85;
partial thicknesses from that model also point to freezing rain over
the southeast half of the County warning forecast area.
For now we feel the best choice is to stick with the GFS-like
solution, which is more in line with the trends of late; this puts
the peak pops early Saturday and does not support freezing rain or ice pellets within
the County warning forecast area border. Accums are based mostly on wpc quantitative precipitation forecast and a 12:1 ratio;
this would be slightly above climo, which seems likely based on the
exceptionally cold profiles.[/font]
RAL
South and east of that corridor there could
be a mix of sleet between 03z and 09z. Regardless of the location,
once the precipitation transitions to snow, it will remain snow
through Saturday morning. For now, preliminary snow amount forecast
will range from 1-1.5 inches in the northwest to 2-4 inches in the
southeast. Again though, the confidence in those numbers is low at
this time.
South and east of that corridor there could
be a mix of sleet between 03z and 09z. Regardless of the location,
once the precipitation transitions to snow, it will remain snow
through Saturday morning. For now, preliminary snow amount forecast
will range from 1-1.5 inches in the northwest to 2-4 inches in the
southeast. Again though, the confidence in those numbers is low at
this time.
FFC just posted a new forecast discussion. In short: light accumulations outside of the mountains, nada south of I-85. Basically, toss the GFS (darn).
My grids still have rain/snow to snow Friday night and Saturday, but no info on accumulations.
My grids still have rain/snow to snow Friday night and Saturday, but no info on accumulations.
