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SoutheastRidge said:You get 2-3" if the ratio is 15:1 !HixsonWX said:WilkesboroDude said:chapelhillwx said:
I need that to slide West by a few more counties and I'll be happy...
I would take that and run! That's a really optimistic ratio, though. I would be surprised if that played out.
More worried about it being too cold/dry for the north-west areas vs high ratios. Boone and surrounding areas have been burned by this in recent years. Be cloudy and temps 10 degrees colder than forecast with no precip...and extremely light when it does hit the surface.
So the euro shows another run that is different then the gfs. Oh well if this doesn't look good for my area by tomorrow night I'll call it day on this storm for northern middle Tennessee. Time for bed for me but good luck to everyone else and here's hoping to waking up to a big surprise on the models wherever you all may be.
I've been largely optimistic (cautiously optimistic at times as well) for the past week following this storm, but you know you start feel bummed when you know there's a battle going on between 3-6 inches of snow (GFS) and T-1 inch of snow (Euro) and you realize the T-1 inch is the more likely outcome because of what specific model is saying it. Yeah, I know the snow maps don't mean crap with relation to what the outcome will or won't be, but it's still discouraging because I know how this song and dance goes and it's not pretty. The only lame excuse I can give is maybe the EURO still has a warm bias at play and it ends up marginally better here than it says right now.
I still think T-2 is a good call for mby given where we are with all the various models, My confidence of it being on the high end of that just has decreased some since 12 hrs ago. I'm curious to see what the 06z NAM will be in a bit then I'm off to bed.
I still think T-2 is a good call for mby given where we are with all the various models, My confidence of it being on the high end of that just has decreased some since 12 hrs ago. I'm curious to see what the 06z NAM will be in a bit then I'm off to bed.
If I were to draw a noticeable ratio line it would be near the black line and north. The best would be in WV but little to no precip. Upstate SC, GA, south-east of Charlotte-Raleigh line I think there would be mixing issues anyways to prevent all snow. Looks all snow north of i40 west of i77.
With the GFS still insisting on an uncommon far south track, I decided it was worthwhile to do some research of Gulf lows that cross central or S FL in winter. I'm sure I missed quite a few, but I think I found a good portion of the more prominent ones. The ones I know about occurred about once per decade on average. The last five I found were 2/12/2010, 1/2-3/2002, 1/18/1992, 3/2/1980, and 2/9-10/1973. Since 1950, when daily AO/NAO's are available, they have tended to occur with a -AO/-NAO. It looks like there will be a +AO/+NAO on 1/7/17. However, one major exception of the 7 since daily AO/NAO's started was 2/9-10/1973, which was during a solid +AO/+NAO.
I found 13 of these storms. ATL got major SN 5 times, got significant wintry precip. 3 other times, got light wintry precip. twice, and got a trace of SN or nothing only three times (25%). They never got a cold rain. When it precipitated, it was always cold enough for wintry.
Macon snow records are incomplete, but I do know that they very likely got significant to major SN 6-7 times out of the 13. Even SAV got a good bit of action with a major wintry event 3 times, a significant wintry event 3 other times, a light wintry event 2 times, and just a cold rain only 5 times.
I'm not counting 12/1989 because that low didn't form until just east of FL.
I found 13 of these storms. ATL got major SN 5 times, got significant wintry precip. 3 other times, got light wintry precip. twice, and got a trace of SN or nothing only three times (25%). They never got a cold rain. When it precipitated, it was always cold enough for wintry.
Macon snow records are incomplete, but I do know that they very likely got significant to major SN 6-7 times out of the 13. Even SAV got a good bit of action with a major wintry event 3 times, a significant wintry event 3 other times, a light wintry event 2 times, and just a cold rain only 5 times.
I'm not counting 12/1989 because that low didn't form until just east of FL.