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Wintry 1/7/17-1/10/17 Winter Storm

The NAM is probably wrong in that it shows that huge hole of no moisture, but what is a major concern here is it continues to show more and more interaction with the northern stream (in the time period in which it's good). Northern stream interaction is fine for some of us, but if there is too much the wave is just going to get ripped to shreds.
 
mydoortotheworld said:
NorthGAWinterWx said:
Atm, I don't care what the NAM shows at this point moisture wise. Latest UKMET, Euro, CMC, DGEX and JMA are all in line with each other. The GFS is some what in line. We will see a big snow storm from this low. Now, I know that the JMA and DGEX aren't reliable models but the more reliable models support the the same idea as DGEX and JMA.
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but the euro is too warm?
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Cold air gets in here before the low and during the low. We could start off as some cold rain then quickly changing over. I'm using blend of models.
 
This 0z GFS run will be the most important in the short history of Southerwx
 
bouncycorn said:
SnowFlowXXL said:
If the GFS fails will it be time to throw out the models, as they can't get a handle of the storm right now lol?? That was one of my favorite excuses
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If the GFS fails, IT'S OVA!
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Not necessarily. Anything can happen. Models have all flopped together before.
 
After seeing the nam reactions I really hope the GFS follows the nam. The meltdown will need epic epecially out of wake County lol

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bouncycorn said:
SnowFlowXXL said:
If the GFS fails will it be time to throw out the models, as they can't get a handle of the storm right now lol?? That was one of my favorite excuses
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If the GFS fails, IT'S OVA!
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If the gfs fails it's GET TO DA CHOPPA TIME!
 
Has anyone checked out how cold this air is coming out of Canada?? Hard to believe on a NW flow (for now) that we have a super hard time getting some cold air in here...

2wc1p3r.png
 
Storm5 said:
After seeing the nam reactions I really hope the GFS follows the nam. The meltdown will need epic epecially out of wake County lol

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I see you got a case of the bigstick

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I mean considering that this is really threading the needle in how close it might get I really think we need to get to the 12z suite tomorrow before drawing anywhere close to a possible conclusion on this storm.
 
NorthGAWinterWx said:
Atm, I don't care what the NAM shows at this point moisture wise. Latest UKMET, Euro, CMC, DGEX and JMA are all in line with each other. The GFS is some what in line. We will see a big snow storm from this low. Now, I know that the JMA and DGEX aren't reliable models but the more reliable models support the the same idea as DGEX and JMA.
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At this point in time , I think this is the wisest bet. Look for a path of consistency. I  fully believe something is going to give here very soon.....
 
0z GFS has commenced. Everyone say a prayer it holds haha
 
I've used this picture before, but this is what happens to some people who was on the hype train before models change. 

AZNAR4.gif
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
I mean considering that this is really threading the needle in how close it might get I really think we need to get to the 12z suite tomorrow before drawing anywhere close to a possible conclusion on this storm.
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Definitely. I feel tomorrow will be the deciding factor, unless we are still all over the place, which is still a possibility.
 
SD said:
Storm5 said:
After seeing the nam reactions I really hope the GFS follows the nam. The meltdown will need epic epecially out of wake County lol

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I see you got a case of the bigstick

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Sounds like someone from another board.
 
Brick Tamland said:
SD said:
Storm5 said:
After seeing the nam reactions I really hope the GFS follows the nam. The meltdown will need epic epecially out of wake County lol

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I see you got a case of the bigstick

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Sounds like someone from another board.
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No denying the overreacting that's currently ongoing

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It was a nice threat for my area while it lasted. Take care Mr. Storm Threat.
 
I know the gfs is giving you guys to my south and Southwest a great event but in case it goes south I wouldn't let it break my heart. I'd wait to see what the rest of the 0z runs offer

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