Wintry 1/7/17-1/10/17 Winter Storm

[Shawn]

This is nothing the GFS and CMC can't take care of. As crazy a run as the NAM was, watch those two come in a crush jobs.

Sent from my XT1585 using Tapatalk

If GFS and CMC are crushjobs along with GEFS, I honestly don't know what to put in my forecast lol. I was hoping NAM would really narrow it down for us.

I believe it just did.... In all honesty, the track seems to have adjusted north to a more believable look. Now, it all comes down to how much energy survives to spawn our gulf low.

 

[Shawn]

Yep that's the problem with getting epic model runs.  GFS had 22 here at one point.  I'll still take 2.2 and walk off like I just won the world series

Sent from my SM-G928V using Tapatalk

Guess that is part of it. But more so I am just worried we won't even get that now with the way things are looking now.

 

[Shawn]

I LOL when I see people get bent out of shape over the NAM model. Hell you do realize its one of the least reliable models out there right?

Sent from my XT1585 using Tapatalk

 

[Shawn]

Ive been saying from the beginning I just want a 1-3 inch type event and somehow get an advisory for my area, and ill be happy. That nam run just looked weird as far as precip but who knows. That 18z GEFS was drop dead sexy and so was the earlier CMC and UKMET, so we just gotta hope that nam wasn't the start of something. I am still cautiously optimistic, but I also have a tendency to wishcast.

 

[Shawn]

Oz GFS will make all of us forget about the Nam run tonight

 

[Shawn]

RPM shows the snow coming through NGA very quickly Friday early AM.

 

[Shawn]

So much work over so many days for 1" of snow. We are sad.

 

[Shawn]

Oz GFS will make all of us forget about the Nam run tonight

Is this uneducated or an educated guess?

 

[Shawn]

If the GFS fails will it be time to throw out the models, as they can't get a handle of the storm right now lol?? That was one of my favorite excuses

 

[Shawn]

I didn't find too much problems for me with the NAM ? Sorry, I'm just trying to see flakes other than dandruff.

 

[Shawn]

Oz GFS will make all of us forget about the Nam run tonight

Is this uneducated or an educated guess?

I'm being funny

 

[Shawn]

Meh it's the long range NAM.... and fwiw the NAM-para looks almost identical, has more of an overrunning look to it, quick hitter.... sweet spot maybe 2"

At this point with the warmup inevitable I'll take whatever we can muster.

Sent from my SM-G928V using Tapatalk

Why is the warm up inevitable?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

cause you bought that damn sled

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk

That sled is a snow beacon. Our bastion of frozen hope.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Shawn]

If the GFS fails will it be time to throw out the models, as they can't get a handle of the storm right now lol?? That was one of my favorite excuses

If the GFS fails, IT'S OVA!

 

[Shawn]

Yep that's the problem with getting epic model runs.  GFS had 22 here at one point.  I'll still take 2.2 and walk off like I just won the world series

Sent from my SM-G928V using Tapatalk

Guess that is part of it. But more so I am just worried we won't even get that now with the way things are looking now.

I have a hard time seeing a shutout though if the euro/nam type solutions verify we do have a little BL concern but it looks like melting would erase that quickly

Sent from my SM-G928V using Tapatalk

 

[Shawn]

To my untrained eyes, if it weren't the 18z GFS, that run would have been a baby step in the right direction. It still shears out the wave a bit but the GOM's moisture recovers it enough for a decent event and wetter than some previous runs.

It's not a matter if whether the northern stream is going to affect this system, it's a matter of how much it does. Our best hope is it doesn't get completely ripped up and the GOM is able to recover it.

Of course it also looks like the wave stalls to me until moisture starts coming up from the GOM and it's like it tugs the system to me.

 

[Shawn]

4 days of not getting above freezing is impressive even for up here.

Edit: anything that does fall will be sticking around for a few days.

Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

 

[Shawn]

Parallel NAM is suppressed. Don't know what's going on at h5 because I don't see any maps for it on TT.

Close as I have for you

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Shawn]

Atm, I don't care what the NAM shows at this point moisture wise. Latest UKMET, Euro, CMC, DGEX and JMA are all in line with each other. The GFS is some what in line. We will see a big snow storm from this low. Now, I know that the JMA and DGEX aren't reliable models but the more reliable models support the the same idea as DGEX and JMA.

 

[Shawn]

This is 18z DGEX

 

[Shawn]

Atm, I don't care what the NAM shows at this point moisture wise. Latest UKMET, Euro, CMC, DGEX and JMA are all in line with each other. The GFS is some what in line. We will see a big snow storm from this low. Now, I know that the JMA and DGEX aren't reliable models but the more reliable models support the the same idea as DGEX and JMA.

but the euro is too warm?