Wintry 1/7/17-1/10/17 Winter Storm

[Shawn]

At least Chris looks poised to get some legit accumulating snow at the end of the run in Macon.

 

[Shawn]

Y'all keep saying "oh that was a bad run", but the trend is that EARLY on in the run, there is more interaction. The Northern Stream rips the energy out of our little s/w. That is the trend that is killing any snow chances and it's in the medium range NAM, which isn't half bad with vorticity/mesoscale features

 

[Shawn]

Meh it's the long range NAM.... and fwiw the NAM-para looks almost identical, has more of an overrunning look to it, quick hitter.... sweet spot maybe 2"

At this point with the warmup inevitable I'll take whatever we can muster.

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[Shawn]

This is nothing the GFS and CMC can't take care of. As crazy a run as the NAM was, watch those two come in a crush jobs.

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[Shawn]

0Z NAM Snow

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[Shawn]

There will be more QPF, the NAM will be catching on that better within 48 hrs. Good placement of low off of the SE coast.

 

[Shawn]

Meh it's the long range NAM.... and fwiw the NAM-para looks almost identical, has more of an overrunning look to it, quick hitter.... sweet spot maybe 2"

At this point with the warmup inevitable I'll take whatever we can muster.

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Amen

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[Shawn]

This is nothing the GFS and CMC can't take care of. As crazy a run as the NAM was, watch those two come in a crush jobs.

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If GFS and CMC are crushjobs along with GEFS, I honestly don't know what to put in my forecast lol. I was hoping NAM would really narrow it down for us.

 

[Shawn]

1-3 from the nam..I'll take it

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But the way the totals keep decreasing we might not get anything.

 

[Shawn]

Ill take a 1-2 inch event and be satisfied.

 

[Shawn]

There will be more QPF, the NAM will be catching on that better within 48 hrs. Good placement of low off of the SE coast.

The problem is not QPF, it's the entire upper air setup. Our s/w barely has any energy left in it by the time it reaches the gulf.

 

[Shawn]

I think the GFS is going to explode tonight

 

[Shawn]

0Z NAM Snow

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Hey it gives me 2 in, I'll take it.

 

[Shawn]

I'm with bouncy here. Not good to see more interaction like that and it's something early enough in the NAM run to not totally toss.

 

[Shawn]

When does the 00z UKMet run?

 

[Shawn]

I think the gfs stays course for track but blows up more qpf.

 

[Shawn]

1-3 from the nam..I'll take it

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But the way the totals keep decreasing we might not get anything.

I'll be concerned if the Euro CMC UKM go into the tank. The American models seem to be the most sheared/less amplified/farthest east

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[Shawn]

1-3 from the nam..I'll take it

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But the way the totals keep decreasing we might not get anything.

take what modeled snow you get and be happy. it's not the final outcome. as sh**** as the runs have been you still get snow with multiple different looks .

Meh it's the long range NAM.... and fwiw the NAM-para looks almost identical, has more of an overrunning look to it, quick hitter.... sweet spot maybe 2"

At this point with the warmup inevitable I'll take whatever we can muster.

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[Shawn]

0Z NAM Snow

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We are going to have to set some definitions here. When you say "bad" run, I expect NO snow. Then I see the map, and it says snow. Which is a good thing. Just because it doesn't show 3 feet of snow, doesn't mean it's a bad run. Its not that far off from the other models.

 

[Shawn]

There is *some* time for models to further correct. But we're getting really close to the period of stream interaction so they'll have to flip fast. I am very concerned. Here I was trying to forecast the location of a deformation zone but now i'm concerned about whether or not we even see snow.