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Webberweather53 said:Cary_Snow95 said:Webberweather53 said:
And bad for RDU
Nah, it's a different story for the Carolinas... We'll also have to watch the evolution of the shortwave currently in the Eurasian arctic, this system will be over the Great Lakes ~ 4 days. If this digs southwestward and slows down, our southern branch disturbance would get turned northward & vis versa.
Similar to a phase almost once it turns up the Atlantic?
SD said:
Yeah way too early to project how it ends, no doubt it gets sheared, all modeling does that it seems it's more about how it survives once the ns starts pushing out ahead as you said before no way around the interaction
I'm fairly novice, but I'm preeeeeetttttttyyyyyy sure that the last run shows both our disturbance and the northern stream interacting with each other, I just hope it doesn't tear it up completely, but it's going to happen... (interaction, that is)
IDK how anyone can say that there is not more interaction, I have 2 of my monitors on a constant updating frame by frame with 18z on the left and 00z on the right. Much more interaction and flattening @54. Also the surface-850 is warmer.
MiddleTNWx said:
If memory serves me correct I can think of several snow shower events that have proceeded deep layers of cold air as they enter...wouldn't shock me if it did over perform Thursday Night for you.
Cary_Snow95 said:Webberweather53 said:Cary_Snow95 said:Webberweather53 said:
And bad for RDU
Nah, it's a different story for the Carolinas... We'll also have to watch the evolution of the shortwave currently in the Eurasian arctic, this system will be over the Great Lakes ~ 4 days. If this digs southwestward and slows down, our southern branch disturbance would get turned northward & vis versa.
Similar to a phase almost once it turns up the Atlantic?
It would essentially at least partially phase with this system. The orientation wrt that s/w is key as well, because if the models once again are too fast and shallow with it like they were with our first northern stream PV lobe that will shear our disturbance in the north-central Rockies, then things could get interesting here. If the 2nd shortwave in the northern stream slows and digs, with the southern branch system to it's SE, the area of low pressure off the Carolinas would start to intensify more quickly, turn northward and the entire longwave trough axis would acquire more of a negative tilt which is what's currently shown by the UKMET, JMA, and to some extent the CMC/ECMWF. If you see a southern branch shortwave run out in front an incoming s/w in the northern branch, that's usually conducive to a longwave trough digging more rapidly and phasing the two (or more) streams. Just a possible scenario atm, we'll probably get much closer to an answer on this in another 36 hrs or so... Regardless, I think at this pt, it'll probably be pretty hard to avoid at least a minor event somewhere in central NC.