Wintry 1/7/17-1/10/17 Winter Storm

[Shawn]

ShowMeYourTDsDid someone just threaten' a Roy D Mercer ass whippin'? On a weather forum?


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I think so... Claimed he was a big fella....Other one asked how big a fella he was, and it took off from there

 

[Shawn]

TWC is forecasting highs in the 30s on Sat, Sun, and Mon so if it does snow, it's going to take some time to melt especially in the shaded areas.

You know what they say, if the snow is on the ground for 3 days, it's going to snow again.

I heard this one for the first time today "Winter thunder, snow seven days after"? If that is how it goes.

 

[Shawn]

You can't say that an event won't happen "just because it won't happen". It's against climo, yes but it doesn't mean it hasn't happened before and won't again, even if it's rare.

I suspect this low trends north, but don't be surprised if it doesn't.

 

[Shawn]

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Hahaha!

 

[Shawn]

Did someone just threaten' a Roy D Mercer ass whippin'? On a weather forum?


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By God they did


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[Shawn]

I think we should get into storm mode after the new model runs tonight

 

[Shawn]

It is just a model folks, chill out. Nobody but the good Lord knows for sure what is going to happen and certainly not a machine

 

[Shawn]

What is storm mode? Driving to the grocery store in a panic to buy milk, bread and batteries?

 

[Shawn]

I'll never forget the January 2011 snowstorm. There was snow on the ground for a week here ! Well, it was a mixture of snow and ice. Snow fell and then ice fell on top of it.

We lived at the bottom of a hill and couldn't get out of our neighborhood for a week. There was a threat for more snow a few days later and my kids were actually crying not wanting to be stuck any longer. We got a taste of life in the north with that storm!

 

[Shawn]

I think we should get into storm mode after the new model runs tonight

^This^

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[Shawn]

I think we should get into storm mode after the new model runs tonight

I second this. Also TWC has me barely getting above freezing Saturday and has lows Sunday/Monday in the mid-lower teens.

 

[Shawn]

Why storm mode?

 

[Shawn]

I'd wait until after 12z tomorrow. We should have a fairly clear picture then as our system will be fully on shore then.

 

[Shawn]

I think we should get into storm mode after the new model runs tonight

I hope they are good enough to force the issue, heh. So what are we looking out for in the runs, just the obvious stuff?

The Obvious: As someone earlier so eloquently stated... "You gotta keep 'em separated!"

Euro: Needs to let some cold air slip in before the precip. Also, still having precip would be nice...
EPS: Please show some members not as bad as the Euro OP.
NAM: Show us a good initial setup of the wave on the west coast.
GFS (0z): Don't go further south? Or would that strengthen the low and be good anyway? 18z trended a bit cooler at the surface, hope that trend continues. Last few nights, 0z GFS has been Buzz Killington.
GEFS (0z): Keep us awake waiting for Euro.
GFS Para (18z): Can it be better than the sexy 18z GFS?
Other models: Give us something to cling to as our world falls down around us. I'll take a blend of JMS + DGEX, because of all of my training!!

 

[Shawn]

Why storm mode?

This. Is the forum not doing its job? Everything seems to be clicking right along. The only reason to go into storm mode is if the forum is overloaded and is locked up.

 

[Shawn]

Good summation.


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[Shawn]

Which one is the better model for this event? The GFS Para or Euro?

 

[Shawn]

Keeping tabs on the server resources. I think we can manage to skip "storm mode" tonight, but who knows. This software handles high loads better due to some better file cacheing.

 

[Shawn]

Why storm mode?

This. Is the forum not doing its job? Everything seems to be clicking right along. The only reason to go into storm mode is if the forum is overloaded and is locked up.

It won't be locked up, once in storm mode the guests viewing will be blocked. I should have word it as, I think we should go in pre-storm mode [SMILING FACE WITH OPEN MOUTH]

 

[Shawn]

The only storm mode we might enter right now is post limiting, post moderation, 24 hr timeouts. We will be watching a bit closer over the next few days since we know emotions may run high as models move around. Just please play nice and don't threaten ass whoopins

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