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Wintry 1/7/17-1/10/17 Winter Storm

Supershow said:
Canadian says a little more North
b25d68b025b6140e00337684fb9fa2af.jpg



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That could be right, but I think it's Temps are off. Should be further south
 
Given the "flat" look on the sw until it reaches the GOM, I expect it will trend northward a bit. Got to love the look of the moisture already spreading into Texas well before the sw arrives...precip amounts prob. underdone a bit.
 
Deltadog03 said:
Supershow said:
Canadian says a little more North
b25d68b025b6140e00337684fb9fa2af.jpg



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That could be right, but I think it's Temps are off. Should be further south
I agree Chris, temps should be cold enough to support snow further south.
 
cmc is faster vs the gfs. whatever happens it's gonna be a fast moving system. remember last week when the euro was giving us a 36 hour overrunning event .......

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If anyone is looking for trends, the CMC took the same path as it's previous runs, but was a tad weaker.

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I am in Birmingham currently, and have lived in North Georgia also. I would say that we are due for a more southerly track, it has not happened in a while from what I remember over the past few years...
 
Deltadog03 said:
Supershow said:
Canadian says a little more North
b25d68b025b6140e00337684fb9fa2af.jpg



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That could be right, but I think it's Temps are off. Should be further south


I agree. I like the track and the temps appear to be off...


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Storm5 said:
cmc is faster vs the gfs. whatever happens it's gonna be a fast moving system. remember last week when the euro was giving us a 36 hour overrunning event .......

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Yea I hope it comes through during the day Saturday. Friday night and we will miss it.
 
Here's what I'm talking about. That ULL over great lakes starts to dig considerably further southwestward than the previous run and phases with this once it gets to GA. Although this run may miss wide right (GFS progressive bias may be partially to blame) it highlights the fact there's definitely a risk of a huge coastal Miller A bomb off the Carolinas and VA... If we see the same trend with this feature that we observed with the first northern stream disturbance that's going to shear this out a little over the Pacific northwest and northern Rockies in the next day or so (w/ NS disturbance trending deeper, further SW), could get mighty interesting to say the least in the Carolinas & Mid-Atlantic



gfs_z500_vort_us_19.png
 
GaWx said:
Jackpot of 3-6": central MS to Montgomery to ATL (more in southern areas like Tony's), Athens, Columbus, Macon, Augusta, Columbia, Florence, Myrtle, ILM. Even El Kabong in Perry, GA scores a big one.

Thanks for the shout-out, Larry!  I would love to see that scenario play out down this way, but I'm not sure if the suppressed track will hold. Sounds like Chris is still expecting the inevitable NW shift which would likely leave us with rain and 33!  Would love to hear your thoughts for the central GA area.
 
Storm5 said:
cmc is faster vs the gfs. whatever happens it's gonna be a fast moving system. remember last week when the euro was giving us a 36 hour overrunning event .......

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Agreed, overrunning was showing 36 hrs GFS about 12-15 hrs, I'll still take those hrs lol
 
This 12Z GFS track would be an unusually far south track in the GOM and crossing central FL but far from unheard of. Examples: 2/25/1914, 2/9-10/1973, and 1/2-3/2002, all of which gave MCN sig wintry wx including their top two snowfalls on record and gave a lot of wintry wx to many areas of the deep south. Atlanta got a good snow from 2/1914 and 1/2002 but missed 2/1973. With a central FL crossing, ATL sometimes gets hit nicely and sometimes is too far north.
 
FLO said:
Storm5 said:
cmc is faster vs the gfs. whatever happens it's gonna be a fast moving system. remember last week when the euro was giving us a 36 hour overrunning event .......

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Yea I hope it comes through during the day Saturday. Friday night and we will miss it.
not me I want it overnight to maximize cooling. it will be there in the am when you wake up.

but who the hell would sleep with a wite storm ongoing outside. not me, I'll sleep Sunday when we shoot into the mid 30s

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Well. Canadian is a swing and miss for CAE. We do see some Wintry weather, but its mainly to our North.
 
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