Not saying that this thing comes north, but climo would argue against the rain/snow line being that far south. It has happened before and it will happen again. However, for those rooting for a more amped up storm closer to the coast, sadly, it will take many locations out of the game. I would love to see a board-wide dump, but someone will always be left out. At least we are not looking at the ZR accumulations that was modeled yesterday. One thing about miller A's, they have a small transition zone, unlike miller B's.
You definitely bring up some important points and concerns I've had in the back of my mind since yesterday when I noticed ECMWF/UKMET/CMC suites trending stronger with the energy out west and deeper/further SE with the disturbance over the Great lakes ~ day 4. I definitely think areas along/south and east of the I-85 corridor from Raleigh-Durham-Greensboro-Charlotte and Greenville-Spartanburg definitely have to keep this in the back of their mind going forward as a more amplified system would take areas well southeast of here out of the core of the storm and put DC-BAL-PHL-NYC-BOS into it... That's definitely a very legitimate scenario given the climatology, historical trends in guidance in short-medium range, and what we've seen of late with this system. If there was to be a significant shift in the track and amplitude of this storm, I personally favor a more amplified/further NW solution panning out as opposed to suppressed/SE. We'll see though, although many here complained that our shortwave was phasing more with the northern stream over the west in the short range, it's probably a good thing this happened because a more amplified system like the 12z GFS yesterday showed emerging from the Rockies and even partially phasing with the northern stream would have been game-set-match for the mid-Atlantic & climatologically favored areas of the far western piedmont and mountains of NC. The fact that this isn't happening is keeping this interesting for areas further to the south & east.
